Hey guys, sorry for the poor format here. I’ll make it as visually understandable as possible. Curious for takes from you guys.

105 bb effective

I open JTss 2.5bb from CO, aggro fish 3b’s to 8.5bb, I wanted to go for the 4b actually, but roll low and go against my impulse.

Flop: (18.5 bb) Td - 5s - 6c

I x, V bets 1/2 pot, I call.

Turn: (37 bb) 3h

I x, V bets a bit less than 1/3rd pot, I call

River: (64 bb) 2d

I x, V jams remaining 70 bb or so, I go in the tank.

Found this one pretty interesting and just wondering if any of you bring up any points that I didn’t consider in game, or since.

Thanks guys. GL at the tables and appreciate the input.

I dont think you need to roll anything vs a fish. Calling 3b is good, i dont like 4b they wont fold any AJ/AT/KT.
Flop and turn are wp
River well agg fish can show up with anything so you just call and hope for the best, also some fish wont jam OP because of 4straight thing in that case call is super good. Even if he dose jam those he can have so much over cards or random hands.

I def get what you mean about rolling being FPS vs aggro fish in a spot like this, but if anything I wish i didn’t roll and 4b tbh.
I suspected he’s way too wide pre here and i should punish him for that.
He’s probably somewhere between a aggro fish and aggro whale.
No HUD site tho (MGM) and just going off my limited observations while 7-8 tabling so hard to know how tuned in I am sometimes.

I was gonna go 50/50 4b/call but wish I just pulled the trigger tbh.

I dont think you are punishing him by 4B this hand. It plays badly in low SPR oop

Do not 4bet. Fish don't fold.

No need to roll vs fish, that implies balance and you never balance vs a fish.

I have old fish data but does fish data actually ever get old? Seems like the definition of a fish is they don't change their strategy.

Looks like a fold. Fish also have sizing tells, when they Overbet their bluffs are greatly reduced. I actually remember a poker detox gem saying that fish over bluff every sizing EXCEPT Overbets.

What if my gut is pretty confident that this is a value 4b against a far too wide 3b range?
I felt pretty certain that he was getting OOL and bordering more into whale territory, but as I was trying to say above, it’s hard to know for sure until you get to a decent number of showdowns.

Thanks for the input tho guys, glad you guys think river is close at least. Pretty amusing results for this one.

River is a small OB, but I dunno if this changes much, or anything.

I actually considered raising turn as well tbh, but probably not a great play. Lots of range guessing going on here, but I think he’s too wide on all streets in game.

Admission: I do roll some spots too much

Probably read this book.



There's a ton of confirmation bias in 1 hand. It happens to me all the time and it's hard to fight it.

If he is agg fish data looks more like this



Low board stays low is super over bluffed. I know this is OOP 3bettor but i dont have texture data for IP.

Looks like an interesting book, I’d probably enjoy that.
Playing no HUD I’m more or less playing my 2/5 live strategy, which does involve some on the fly reads, etc.
But mostly I play things pretty standard overall, and just let the $ slowly come my way.

Will wait and see if any other fun feedback comes in and then reveal the lol results later tonight or tomorrow morn.

Pretty sure you got that data from me.

It's a sample of 168 hands. You can't really know much from that.

He also OB river and that is saying 40-60% river sizing.

XS I'm getting a few coaching sessions next week from an MDA guy I'll ask him about this hand.

Very cool, would be super curious what he thinks. If I recall correctly river was like a 110% pot bet.

I got it from Patrick lol

Most of the time you dont have data that is perfect for your spot, but this is decent indicator. OB is close to balanced this texture is over bluffed.

the turn bet makes me want to call. Also, I see fish/whales pot the flop with overpairs and 1/2 pot bluffs on this type of board.

You could definitely be right. I always have trouble when there are conflicting data points like this.

I feel like 4-betting pre kind of ruins our hand when we have a pretty exciting call. Even if villain is a borderline maniac, it doesn't seem like JTs can have an equity edge. And he's just going to continue with everything that dominates us. And getting shoved on is a total disaster.

I just happily call this down without thinking too hard about it. It's probably a pure call in theory, and the aggrofish read makes me think that we win close to half the time. In his aggrofish mind, he could easily think that he is repping the straight even if it is illogical to us.

Surprised that everyone is so opposed to the idea of 4b if we think his range contains a lot of trash.
Even in GTO JTs gets into 4b range a bit CO vs BTN and I don’t see why we’d be opposed to upping the freq % vs a suspected too wide range. Pretty sure I’d be fine taking either line pre, but obviously when fish jams pre vs 4b life sucks.

Anyway, here’s the results:

It's because you have no fold equity. GTO implies fold equity.

I don’t think it’s correct to assume no FE tho.
And if he’s calling trash as bad as 43o, how bad can it be?

I'll try to get some answers based on data and report back on Monday.

Interesting hand

I found these two poker detox gems from their twitter account. Might be helpful in the future against fish.

Ya, pretty fun hand.
It made me wonder how many different river cards he’d be jamming on when he gets there with a pair of 3’s.
Funny when I’m wondering how much A4o he has, and then I see this hand at showdown.

Eyyy DooDoo, just wondering if you remembered to ask about this hand in your coaching session?

Yeah sorry I asked the guy and he said its a clear fold OTR.

Just found this poker detox gem that confirms this as well.



Playing well vs fish is the fastest way to increase your winrate except everyone wants to know GTO. It's pretty backwards if you ask me.

Ok, ya. It’s actually interesting cuz I’m game I felt pretty confident that he was spewing on every street except for river, and then I couldn’t help but make the curiosity call.
Actually have had really good discipline folding the close river spots lately, but couldn’t bring myself to on this one.
Thanks again guys. Learned some good stuff posting this one.