Hi guys,

Would you call this River? Also would you play it the same otherwise?

Villian is playing 23/16, 8.1 3bet, 3 agg. 100 hands
It was his first donk bet, I know nothing about him.
After the hand I did PTR and he is a good winning reg at 50NL and 100NL.

Thoughts?

Thanks

What ? Why ?! If you planned on calling the turn then call the river. Or raise flop and fold to a shove to be sure.

I hate the phrase: if you call turn call river. It is never that simple. So many people will give up on River and not bet a decent size as a bluff.

Raising flop for info then folding to a shove isn't great advice either.

Raising flop pushes out all his 88 66 1010 78 89 hands.. + overcards..

raising at any point is stupid and without notes to indicate otherwise i would say this is a value line.
however if he's a big winning tag i dont think he would **** on his ranges like this.
I would call and take a note.

Yes probably right.
I didn't know he was a big winner until afterwards unfortunately and his stats were strange because of my small sample size

Pre/flop/turn are fine

Look at his WWSF/river AFq to decide river if you don't have reads.

100 hands but..

WTSD 28%
WWSF 44%
W$SD 29%

such a small sample though..
Aggression 3.0 River
Agg Freq 21% River

This is all after the hand was played..

Hand is played fine.

fold river is fine

I have to look at this from a range perspective:

Preflop he can have a bunch of suited connecters as well as some medium pocket pairs and such. Is villain capable of bluffing 3 streets here with air when he calls an UTG raise from OOP? 77,55,88-TT all are very possible hands here as well as some 76,87,T9 combos as well....

Flop is fine. You can't fold and you can't raise. Turn bet to me is committing here. I'm not a fan of raising for information usually when you have position but in this spot I think we can raise here, like 19ish, to fold to a shove and chk behind on the river. He has to define his hand here after you raise and I would expect alot of calls by him with check outs on the river. Prepare to chk behind here alot on the river and be prepared to fold alot as well.

The way it was played I think we have to fold the river bet as we have to assume 3 big barrels go in with alot of sets and two pairs here.

I'm wondering why he would ever lead with a set on such a dry flop. We will probably cbet this close to 100% when opening UTG. I would always ch/raise here if I was in his shoes. His donkbet seems more like a 88-TT kind of hand that wants to protect.

As played I would probably muck without any further reads.

far better flop for his range than ours, raising is just.....^o)

i fold the turn alot

But herein lies the problem with flatting flop. He just leads three streets and what the hell are you supposed to do? He can rep whatever whilst ur hand is face up as what it is.

At least if you raise the flop and he just flats, you can decide that he has a lot of pair/str8 draws in his range still and bet decent turns for value. And i disagree that raising def folds out all underpairs as people in our spot often raise as bluff so he'll have these sometimes too.

I know the hand sample is 'lol' but it's all we got to go on. I imagine that this player should be good enough to gauge what our hand range is when he donkleads a low-connected board and we just keep flatting

Furthermore, what the hell do we do he decides to just ship the river for 2x pot? I dont even play 50nl and i make this play against players who flat twice in this spot,simply because they hardly ever have anything stronger than one pair and just fold.

Hand is played fine. Anyone telling you to raise anywhere in the hand is plain wrong.

Lol. There's a difference between you and him.
He's not a spaztard trying to win every pot.
Unlucky when you get called by AA though.

Usually they are not thinking too much about it I guess. A pro to donk a set vs a nitty player is that they usually will not be able to fold and call big bets on 3 rivers (asking themselves the same question you asked), but will fire only 2 barrels and check back many rivers (because they suck).

If this is the first time villain has donked into you, I would strongly consider folding the river. Making a small raise on the flop is fine, actually, you can do it with a mix of reasonable equity bluffs and value hands. If villain 3-bets, you can simply fold.

A bluff on this river would be exceptionally spazzy. Your hand looks like 88+ after the turn. There are a lot of ways villain can be value betting. I would expect some villains to mistakenly take this line with TT or a rare spaz because they don't know what they are doing, but 6+/-4 combos is a really thin range to beat.

You don't need to worry about being exploitable here, you'd just worried about making the correct read and playing accordingly.

Well tbh a load of people in this thread said they would fold jacks on the river, and theres no difference between AA and JJ in this spot. So how can villain bluff shoving river be that bad? In fact by the sounds of the response ITT villain wouldnt even need to shove to get folds.

Hint: What 2p2-ers say they'd do in a forum and what they'd actually do in real time are two different things.

True, its also true that what you would do, and what others will do may also be two different things. Not sure why its so hard to believe that some people will fold one pair in this spot. Newayz successful derailment by myself....apologies