Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $57.10
BB: $49.75
Hero (UTG): $49.25
MP: $53.95
CO: $41.20
BTN: $55.20

Pre Flop: Hero is UTG with 6 6
Hero raises to $2, 4 folds, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.25) 4 3 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3, BB raises to $10.50, Hero ????

Opponent is playing 20/16/3 over 432 hands. When he check raises I realise I have a note on him that reads "raising and check raising all low flops" by which I mean he's raising every single flop that doesn't look like it hit the pfr. So, I am confident he has nothing most of the time here. However, despite that, I'm not sure what to do as my overpair is so low and vulnerable. Do I raise and probably take it down now or does my pair and gutshot have enough value not to turn into a bluff? Not sure how I should be thinking when his bluff probability is so high.

one good reason NOT to raise is that the board has a FD and str8 draw, so villain ain't folding those. he's range must be sets, fd's, str8d's, and air. So i like calling better because we don't wanna fold out air and are getting at least called with the other part of hes range.

He prob thinks you raised with AJ or AQ UTG, and you're c-betting with nothing. Call - he's probably on a straight (effectively a gutshot) or flush draw, so I'd bet out any non spade turn.

Given your read I'd call since we are in position and I plan to take it away on the turn with a 2/3 pot bet if he doesn't fire another bullet and the board doesn't become more scary. You have also few outs to improve your hand if needed. Reraising here would mean shoving and I don't like it too much, as we need that he has air a lot of times to make it profitable and there is a lot of stuff that may call depending on how he plays.

I would have bet 1-2 dollars on flop for pot control. This isn't really a flop that "misses" your range per se. There's a number of AK/AQ/AJ hands that you can peel the flop with and have a ton of outs often. So although the read says he's doing this with air, his move is scarier on this particular board
(345 or 367 or something is completely different).

edit: I'd probably call and push the turn if I were you, because you have the 6s, that out could be good for runner runner, you also have a gutshot and a 6 is probably good too, whenever your behind that is.

Is this because I anticipate being check-raised and don't plan to fold. Would you generally cbet smaller against a habitual check-raiser?

Woah, not exactly sure what you mean by this statement, you might want to clarify your point of view on this one. Betting 1.00 - 2.00 is not accomplishing anything but providing sweet odds for your opponent, as well as looking like you have a real weak hand.

dump it imo. whether he plays back a lot or not, he has a really tight calling range, and most of it is in good shape against you. also, there's a big difference between playing back on a 224 board and a board with 3 to a wheel two-tone. pretty dumb spot for someone with reggish stats to make a play.

You think the read is pretty irrelevent here, then?

for the most part, yes

How far up the pocket pair scale would you need to be before you think about playing on? 8's, 9's?

With 88/99, this is a pretty marginal spot. I know a lot of people who misplay their low overpairs and I think this is one of the situations where you cannot continue in your hand. 3/4 of the deck will be horrible to your hand and the pot is already so big that you might face an all-in confrontation if you decide to take your hand to the river. Fold it now.

i would probably keep playing, but i think that'd a mistake.

i think the best play is to fold b/c you have no clue what is a "safe" card on the turn or if you're even ahead now. plus your hand isn't *that* strong.

lately I've been trying a new strategy, that is to play a bit more snug until i have a reason to make a play in marginal spots with big'ish pots like here...

Do you have any read on how he plays the turn? If he is continuing on with all his hands get it in now. If not I can't see anything wrong with calling you have position you may aswell use it. Without a read I would just fold though because you are probably 50/50 at best.

I don't like this spot to play back. If you raise you put a lot in and are gonna have to go with it. If you call and he bets the turn will you get it in?

I'd wait for a better spot.

exactly. Someone mentioned I give him sweet pot-odds. Doesn't matter, he's raising not calling, so the fact he has good pot odds is pretty irrelevant. Also if your planning on bet/calling with something weak, you probably open up his range, if you have a marginal hand you control the pot, if you have air he makes less when we both miss. The only thing your not optimizing for is monsters but who cares who never have those anyways.

With the check raise so likely from this opponent would checking this flop have been a reasonable approach given that I will certainly stack him if the five hits and he has an ace?

Why is a 20/16's calling range pf here not made up mostly of pocket pair's that beat you?

Would villain raise 77-99 here?

Yes, he would. From the blinds this guy also calls with ATs-AQs, AJo-AQo and he calls with most sc's from the blinds too.

EDIT: He's not much of a reraiser in the blinds bar premium hands.

WTF at the people who want to fold flop when we have a read that states "c/r or raising ALL low flops" Im definitely calling the flop and probably calling most turn bets too.

here's to hoping he doesn't valueown you with 77 then.

I do agree that 66 is probably the wrong hand to do this with considering how his range compares with yours right now.

actually, I think the strength of your read is relevent. It would help to know if any of the times he did this it ever got to showdown. Keep in mind that you can play hundreds of hands with a player and only see a handful of showdowns. And of those showdowns, very few may apply to a specific situation.

What I'm getting at- when he's raised or checkraised, if you never saw a showdown, you have to consider that he may have had a hand each time.

I disagree with others to completely disregard the read. If he truly does this all the time, then your hand is almost irrelevent... you can push back as a counterplay. Not to mention you don't want to teach him that he can steal every pot that doesn't look like it hit you.

So... the more sure you are of your read, the more I play back.

And I mean pushing to his checkraise... since we don't have any idea what a safe card it, I'd prefer pushing the pressure on him while we believe we're ahead.

Given this combined with note I definitely b/3b. Not because of my hand value, but because I fold so much of his range. He calls with sets/straights/top 2 and thats it, and his range for raising is obv much wider. You also have some quit vs these.

Calling sucks, because there are so many cards you don't want to see on the turn. Basically the whole deck is bad.

But if I did that kind of thing I might not be weak-tight any more!!!!

One hand where he did it went to showdown. He raised a low board IP with KQs (no draw) caught a King on the turn, bet it and checked the river to beat a pair of tens.

precisely why you want to push. You're saying, "I have a hand now and you'll have to draw out on me." Since he has no idea what he has to draw to, unless he's a maniac, he'll fold quite a bit.

But seriously... either fold or push. You can't call because you'll never know what a safe card is. Furthermore, the idea is to put him to a decision and regain control of the hand.