Villain is a 13/10 reg. I don't have any relevant notes/reads on him. His fold cbet to raise is 40% from a 13k sample. If you want to know any other stats please let me know and I'll post them.

Do you like the 3 street bluff in this spot? My image is tight and I don't really mess with cbets too much (my raise flop cbet is 12%). I thought this flop hits my perceived range well. I don't think he's likely to slowplay a set oop on this wet flop. On the turn he'll call with AA, KK and AQ with a club and the're a good chance to fold all of his one pair hands on the river.

Thoughts?

If he doesn't fold one pair here, he's spewing pretty badly, so yeah, good jorb.

I like flop reriase. I think it will work a lot of the time. Difficult to see what he calls with though. I think most sets get it in OTF given the wetness, so maybe he has a nut flush draw, or AK, or KK/AA.

Whats his turn fold stat? Whatever it is, I think its good to cbet the turn, since we got equity and a lot of the above mentioned hands will fold.

OTR, I'm not betting. I really think villain has AA/KK here, and since none of the draws OTF hit, he may call lightly. Although I don't mind the bet, as we are still repping 88/TT.

Whats is WTSD stat? Will give an idea of what he call down with.

His fold to turn cbet is 20% out of 20 instances. WTSD is 25%. Why do you think none of flop draws hit OTT? The flush draw hit (although if he has the Ac he might be good enough to realize I'm not raising any non-nut fds on the flop, but still this is 50 nl).

Also on the river I think Im also repping QQ, since it is quite standard these days to flat QQ vs ep opens especially from tight regs.

^^^ lol wut? Why not?

It would be pretty lolworthy to never raise at least some non-nut flush draws on this flop, like JTcc and KJcc, but whatever.

I'm not really a fan of turning hands with OK SDV into bluffs, but again I don't know if that's too relevant. I think this at least reasonable, he can pretty much never have a set since all those re-raise the flop so clearly his range is mostly one pair hands as you say, and I think those are folding the river nearly always. Of course he can also have the nut flush and if so he played it well, but that's not very likely at all obvs.

Opps, sorry, didn't see a flush being made, that does change things somewhat. Also agree with OfCourse, why wouldn't raise with less than a nut flush.

Also true, we can rep QQ, as its possible we flat here.

I don't know, kinda difficult. Most of the times, villain will call your flop riase with AA etc, but will fold to any turn cbet, but its hard for him to be repping anything strong by the river, so I say the triple barrell is good.

I think nut flushes jam the turn.

Apart from the nut flush, villain can absolutely have that. I like the river bet a lot more if we have the Ac in our hand, I'll say that much.

No, not unless he's freaking terrible. If he jams the nut flush on the turn there's a good chance he's only getting paid by lower flushes unless we're terrible, since his hand might as well be face up as a flush and a big one at that. If he calls and checks the river he's still getting paid by all the hands that will get it in on the turn plus all our sets and two pair hands plus some of our bluffs. Yes, there's a chance that if he flats the turn with the nut flush our sets boat up or another club comes and kills his action from worse flushes, but overall his line is so much higher EV than jamming the turn if he has the nuts.

I agree KcJc is a raise on the flop because it's such a huge draw, but I think draws like JcTc play better as flats.

Kinda like it. Once we raise the flop i think we have to 3 barrel this run out. His hand by the river is AcQx/KcQx, AcAx, KcKx so often.


You should post more stats though after that huge sample size. His WTSD is important here.

His WTSD is 25%.

I really don't think its terrible to raise a nut flush here. Hero's line looks very strong, so I think we can expect a river bet a lot of the times. But on the other hand, given hero looks strong, I don't think it would be a mistake to jam the river before a river card ruins our action. I probably agree its better for villain to ch/c the nut flush, but whether he does that is another matter we need to take into consideration.

bad board for bluff if villain is at least a little bit thinking player imho

Looks good. Betting the turn on any club/7/9/J/K/A, its really just about as good a board as we can hope for to bluff raise. His sets will nearly always 3bet the flop and his overapirs cant stand much heat, yes he may call the flop but we get a lot of folds on the turn where we can bet on nearly half the deck.

The info that we are missing that is really important is given the villain is a reg, how good is he, and how does he see you. How often are you raising the flop? that stat right there against a decent player will give us a good idea of what his range could look like by the river.

Villain is a 13/10 reg not particularly good, not terrible either. His fold cbet to raise is 40%. My image is tight and I don't really mess with cbets too much (my raise flop cbet is 12%).

If he has a clue given your stats he shouldnt get to the river with an overpair as that suggests you arnt really raising that light when you raise the flop. If he does not take note then it is conceivable he gets there with an overpair and cant bring himself to fold as his fold to raise is a touch on the low side.

i wouldnt personally raise very often here, cant win every hand!

but i do like it as played, river overbet perfect

Thats exactly why its good to 3 barrel this runout, and vise versa if he was a bad thinking player.

I was expecting him to have an overpair with a club and AcQx fairly often. Even though I'm not raising flop light, players still don't fold turns when they have TPTK or overpair with nut flush draw.

why does this make it a good jorb? what if he just calls with 2 pair+? what % do u think that you're getting folds on each street?

While the Villain might likely 3-bet flop with a set, this doesn't seem very ideal since we're holding a gutshot. if he's 3-betting the flop a significant portion of the time, not necessarily saying he is, then this makes raising less EV than calling.

The Villain's worse off suite hands are likely KQo an AJo which are either pairs or gutshots with overs, this also includes AKo. Not sure if we get many folds on the flop. If you're arguing that its sets up very profitable future street bluffs that might be fine, but it needs to be tempered with getting 3-bet bluffed on the flop with hands like AJo and AKo which we're ahead of but we're not happy getting it in since we're behind his made hands.

well like i said, i guess you're aruging for future fold equity. The villain's hands will also improve on some future streets. and if he's 3-betting the flop ever with over pairs better and bluffs, than this is not a good result.

fwiw, i see a lot people arguing that he needs to fold a pair by the river, suggesting that this somehow makes raising the flop very profitable kinda to the point of raising any two cards which I think is way off.