[LOW] 50nl - Exploiting my supernit image - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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[LOW] 50nl - Exploiting my supernit image

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03-25-2023 , 05:24 AM

Unguarded

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 5,734

Villain is 28/28/17 after 25 hands. He opens to 3x and obviously 3bets on the bigger side, but has otherwise been playing fine.

My stats are 4/0/0 after 25 hands... so tight that even a guy without a HUD probably notices that I haven't been playing any hands.

Ignition - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 121.84 BB
BTN: 64.72 BB
SB: 104.26 BB
BB: 78.58 BB
UTG: 200.04 BB
Hero (MP): 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K

fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, CO raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 6.5 BB

Flop: (19.5 BB, 2 players) 6

Hero checks, CO bets 9.28 BB, Hero calls 9.28 BB

Turn: (38.06 BB, 2 players) 4

Hero checks, CO checks

River: (38.06 BB, 2 players) 8

Hero bets 81.72 BB and is all-in

My line is theoretical garbage, but I just looked at this board and looked at my stats and was like "He might fold literally every single pair that he has if I jam... screw blockers". Sound reasonable?

Thanks for any help!

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03-25-2023 , 06:21 AM

Ceres

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2019 Posts: 3,043

Dunno why we're calling pre?

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03-25-2023 , 07:04 AM

Unguarded

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 5,734

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ceres

Dunno why we're calling pre?

We can call, 4bet to a normal sizing, or jam in theory. It could be a sample size issue, but I just found that calling here pre performs best in the 50 Zone pool for population based on my database analysis. So I am hoping that this translates to the regular tables as well.

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03-25-2023 , 07:13 AM

Ceres

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2019 Posts: 3,043

Fair enough. I'm just a pro simplify junkie

lol at the stat comparison, goes to show what can actually be gleaned

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03-26-2023 , 11:32 AM

RandomLurker

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2022 Posts: 544

He folds some pairs and snaps flushes and straights. Don't know why you need to jam tbh to achieve that.

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03-26-2023 , 11:45 AM

0NoobiePoker0

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2018 Posts: 2,313

I don’t think making an extreme play based on a 25 hand sample size is ever good unless the guy is running at crazy whale stats. I’d just keep it simple and 4 bet pre.

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03-26-2023 , 09:37 PM

Unguarded

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 5,734

Quote:

Originally Posted by RandomLurker

He folds some pairs and snaps flushes and straights. Don't know why you need to jam tbh to achieve that.

Why would he check the turn with a flush? I know it happens in solverland, but I almost never see anyone with regish stats do it. I thought my play was a bit sketchy until I saw:

Ignition - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 121.84 BB
BTN: 64.72 BB
SB: 104.26 BB
BB: 78.58 BB
UTG: 200.04 BB
Hero (MP): 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) CO has 9

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K

fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, CO raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 6.5 BB

Flop: (19.5 BB, 2 players) 6

Hero checks, CO bets 9.28 BB, Hero calls 9.28 BB

Turn: (38.06 BB, 2 players) 4

Hero checks, CO checks

River: (38.06 BB, 2 players) 8

Hero bets 81.72 BB and is all-in, fold,

That looks like a range fold to me! Also, I suspect that most posters who say they wouldn't be terrified of this river jam against a guy showing 4/0/0 stats after 25 hands probably aren't being honest with themselves. Hopefully they wouldn't fold a straight though!

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03-26-2023 , 10:09 PM

Jackontheturn

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2019 Posts: 432

This will work a lot of the time, but just remember that it needs to get through more than 2/3 of the time to turn a profit.

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03-28-2023 , 06:22 PM

Wumpy

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2023 Posts: 488

Seems fine to fold a straight here in practice. How many people are ever shoving the same hand or worse for value? Not sure what the most frequent bluffs here would be but presumably Tx and 9x would be a part of that range. CO probably has a lot of better bluffcatchers. I would still bet you get massive overfolds here against regs, so NH IMO.

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03-28-2023 , 09:07 PM

#10

Redsixerfan

banned

Join Date: Apr 2014 Posts: 396

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ceres

Dunno why we're calling pre?

90% of 50 NL players have a 1 - 2% 3bet frequency, in those cases calling with AK is advisable.

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03-28-2023 , 10:55 PM

#11

esquite

newbie

Join Date: Dec 2022 Posts: 40

Doesn’t betting pot achieve the same thing without the additional risk?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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03-28-2023 , 11:34 PM

#12

Wumpy

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2023 Posts: 488

Quote:

Originally Posted by Redsixerfan

90% of 50 NL players have a 1 - 2% 3bet frequency, in those cases calling with AK is advisable.

That's a massive exaggeration. If that were the case you could just fold AKo vs a 3bet lol.

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03-28-2023 , 11:41 PM

#13

Wumpy

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2023 Posts: 488

Quote:

Originally Posted by esquite

Doesn’t betting pot achieve the same thing without the additional risk?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The answer to this question is almost always no. It's pretty rare for a 1x pot bet and a 2x pot bet to fold out the exact same range. Certainly in this case there's no reason to think they'd fold the exact same range because IP can definitely have overpairs that will probably be willing to sometimes call vs a pot sized bet. IP's exact holding seems like pretty strong evidence that 1x pot and 2x pot aren't folding out the same range, given IP folded a straight.

It's also just solid fundamental poker to incorporate overbet shoves when your opponent is likely capped.

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