Original raiser is 12/7 over 8k. I flat UTG+1's bet because I'm very likely WA/WB and I'm not really worried about many turns. Then the original raiser comes over the top of us both. wtf

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Poker Stars
SB ($50)
Hero ($50)
UTG ($65.40)
UTG+1 ($43.60)
UTG+2 ($55.75)
MP1 ($52.55)
MP2 ($50.75)
CO ($55.75)
BTN ($55.35)

Dealt to Hero 4 4

UTG raises to $1.50, UTG+1 calls $1.50, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls $1.50, fold, Hero calls $1

FLOP ($6.25) 7 Q 4

Hero checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 bets $2.50, BTN folds, Hero calls $2.50, UTG raises to $9, UTG+1 folds, Hero?

I'd just go ahead and get it in here, we have the third nuts and is there any reason for us to think villain would not cbet a set here?

Is there any reason to believe he wouldn't cb KK+ either?

first, dont flat on this board. diamond come it kills your action / owns you. original raiser may very well be doing this with AQ and thinks he is smooth. this is a shove all in no question about it. if we have a under set oh well. the game will give it back with an overset soon enough.

lol nl50, this hand says it all


honestly flip a coin in this spot

heads-call
tails-fold

and just go from there. If villian does have an overpair he got tricky with in hopes one of the randoms behind bet then he probably folds it if you 4bet/jam. No perfect way to play this spot, ****ed either way


I would always c/r here though as alot of turn cards do kill your action, esp OOP. If random has KQ, AQ they are unlikely to fold it if you c/r. Turn Diamond, Ace, King, 8, 3, 7 are all potentially bad and limit the value you gain.

I would just ship it here, there is a flush draw on the board, the min flop bet is so weak that any aq overpair of flush draw will raise here.

I mean if your going to call a raise from the bb with a low pp and not get it allin here on this flop, I think that would be a mistake, as played I think you should shove over his check raise, if you call and the turn comes another diamond and then you shove, I think you will lose value and give him the chance to outdraw you.

Fold pre.

wow, why did you flat the original bet? easy CR on the flop

If you'll note,

a) I explained it in the OP
b) It's not the original raiser that bet the flop

yea why don't you c/r flop for super value... esp since I assume he's an unknown

bunch of turn cards can kill your action... And even if it's not a scare card he'll just randomly check behind turn. and when he does that you can't get stacks in...

even if you lead turn/river then you still can't get stacks in. and a third of the time diamond will hit and you'll be beat or he will fold scared..

Take some aggressive action in the flop, either a check/raise, or lead out. As played shove over the top. Seriously. The only thing that has you beat is QQ there.

I actually make this play with air quite often (although not in MWs)

I think you have to get it in without a good read.

I like the play also with AdKd here, or really any Axdd. If he has you it's a cooler, you really can't setmine profitably if you're not willing to stack off when you hit.

depending on original raisers Cbet% i want to either lead or CRAI. as played on flop def raise UTG+1s bet. i dont think your are wa/wb, i think he has diamonds a lot here and will call a significant raise with them. or he has Qx which you crush and probably wont fold either depending on villain. or he has a higher set which sucks but is a cooler. so yea i guess a little wa/wb but he could also be setting the price to draw. people lead draws here a LOT imo.

UTGs c/r is kinda scary and reeks of QQ but i dont think i can ever fold here, just tough seeing what he can do this with that we beat.

Push All In.

AA & KK w/d: Around 85% to win
AQ w/Ad: Around 92% to win
Random Flush Draw: About 70% to Win
Q7: About 80% to Win

You are absolutely right, you are either wa/wb. The only thing that has you beat right now is QQ or 77, more than likely he's sitting on AA w/A of Diamonds, KK w/K of Diamonds or a flush draw. I'm not sure a 12/7 is going to donk off with just AQ, not with the whole "Dont go broke with one pair" mantra they seem to have. While Q7 is an outlier and I certainly cant see this kind of action going PF with a hand that bad, you still have that crushed too. There are basically two hands that have you crushed, QQ and 77. Everything else, you are high percentage to win.

Combinatorically, I'm way ahead of most of his range. But do you think a nit is more likely to c/r mw or b/f mw with overpairs?

I think the nit is going to play this aggressively because he's thinking about AQ, not trips.

So in your opinion, this is the default line a nit takes with AQ?

Sorry, I was not clear.

What I mean is that, whatever the nit is thinking about his own hand he usually does not see trips or 2 pair here. If he has AA or KK here he's not thinking "Man, betting shows my opponent may have trips here. I'd better switch gears or do something to confirm my read." More than likely he's thinking, "Wow, I have an overpair to everything on the board! My opponent MUST have top pair!"

I still think that UTG has a premium hand and does not see the trips. AA or KK, on the outside I see AQ. If he's holding QQ then it's a cooler. Trips vs Trips does not happen often enough to fold unless you have an absolutely stone-cold confirmed read.