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[50NL] Bluff jam vs overbet 250bb deep OTR [50NL] Bluff jam vs overbet 250bb deep OTR

02-22-2024 , 08:10 AM
    iPoker - €0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
    Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

    UTG: €51.30 (102.6 bb)
    MP: €50.00 (100 bb)
    CO: €50.00 (100 bb)
    BTN: €74.53 (149.1 bb)
    SB: €127.44 (254.9 bb)
    Hero (BB): €201.34 (402.7 bb)

    SB posts €0.25, Hero posts BB €0.50

    Pre Flop: (pot: €0.75) Hero has T 6
    4 folds, SB raises to €1.50, Hero calls €1.00

    Flop: (€3.00, 2 players) 6 T 7
    SB bets €1.00, Hero raises to €3.00, SB calls €2.00

    Turn: (€9.00, 2 players) 2
    SB bets €3.00, Hero calls €3.00

    River: (€15.00, 2 players) 7
    SB bets €22.50, Hero raises to €193.84 and is all-in


    Do you like the play with this combo? Vilain is a reg
    [50NL] Bluff jam vs overbet 250bb deep OTR Quote
    02-22-2024 , 08:30 AM
    For me it looks cool on the surface. Blocking TT, 66 and 76s and I think most people would fold flushes.

    I really don't know what to make of the turn donk though, and that's my one main concern.
    [50NL] Bluff jam vs overbet 250bb deep OTR Quote
    02-22-2024 , 08:46 AM
    Well played. Villain unlikely has a house when he donks turn and we block his best bluffcatchers in AT/A6. Might be worth mentioning this is the worst combo of T6 to do it with but I still think its a good play as we don't have many other better bluff candidates.
    [50NL] Bluff jam vs overbet 250bb deep OTR Quote
    02-22-2024 , 12:29 PM
    I like the play and I think on average it will be winning. At the end of day that is all that really matter. But because it's fun, I put more thoughts out there.

    It's not impossible for V to have a boat+ here because it is hard to range him on the turn donk. Maybe he is praying you don't have the As with a set/TP and buying a cheap river to stop you from going like 75% pot or overbetting. But the story that he has the nut flush or the one straight flushes out there also makes sense.

    You block 4 boats. Only having Td6d would be better, so this is probably your second best bluffing candidate. That still only makes 2 bluffs. Other bluff candidates that make sense are really have because it is hard to find a raise on the flop with them because they probably need a pair and spade on the flop, not the As as that is what you are trying to fold out. Something like Ks7x, 8s7s, Tx9s, Tx8s, those hands just have so much showdown value and equity that it will be hard to find flop raises with these hands.

    Even if V can find your 2 combos of T6s, it is going to be hard to put you on enough bluffs for a reg to want to bluff catch you here, and you do block some bluff catchers (AsTh, As6h).

    Your bluff has to get through like 76% of the time here to be profitable. Let's say we get it through 80% of the time. We are putting in 119.9 with an EV of 6. So it might not print as much as we would like for the size of the pot, but I still think it is winning and if we do get called, it will hopefully earn us some light calls when we have it.

    Funny thing is, although this is an obscure line, I think in theory V's river overbet should be weighted towards boats+ for value with 66 and 76 folding a lot when jammed on, T7, TT, 77, 9c8c pure calling. Additionally, T6s would be a bluff, which you block. So your best bluffs in theory are going to be 8s7x, followed by Ks7x, which are supposed to be very winning jams, followed by Tx9s and Tx8s which are supposed to be barely ahead of breaking even (hard for a human to find these low frequency flop though). I wouldn't be surprised if V overcalls 76s and 66 here though. But I also think he is likely overplaying the nutflush here. So T6s in practice is probably a great bluff candidate.
    [50NL] Bluff jam vs overbet 250bb deep OTR Quote
    02-22-2024 , 12:43 PM
    If they're polarized to FH+ then it's probably really bad since you'd need them to fold a lot of boats. If they bet A for this size those should snap fold and you're probably good.

    Maybe I'm wrong and people actually fold 2 card full houses
    [50NL] Bluff jam vs overbet 250bb deep OTR Quote

          
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