I think blockbet is the only way. We cant let him xb his TP at the same time I dont see any non spade hand (trips maybe) betting big, he just got too many flushes in his range, also some J8 now. Vs shove I think you can fold always. Like the Turn donk, but dont overdo it.
Edit: didnt mention QJo, thats a lot of combinations, you can bet big these ofc even tho you need to be more picky w blockers later on. He got them also therefore KTo is kinda owning itself and would much better serve in blockbetting range.
Think river is a mistake in this spot. A lot of your hands are stronger than this AP and you block a decent chunk of his calling range and bluff catch range with the K and T ap. Should probably bet river small again or check.
AP think you should just fold. Really doubt people would bluff into you at a reasonable frequency and jamming is spew since you have almost no boats here... 99/TT/KK all raises pre and K7/77/97s type hands all raising flop very high frequency
How did you come up with the idea of donking this combo in play? Do you memorize such spots?
You can memorize it but it's just easier to imagine ranges. IP isn't going to cbet all his 7x and his cbet range is going to be much wider than my calling range OTF. Plus I am mostly calling 7x and maybe XRing the weaker 7x at some frequency.
Think river is a mistake in this spot. A lot of your hands are stronger than this AP and you block a decent chunk of his calling range and bluff catch range with the K and T ap. Should probably bet river small again or check.
AP think you should just fold. Really doubt people would bluff into you at a reasonable frequency and jamming is spew since you have almost no boats here... 99/TT/KK all raises pre and K7/77/97s type hands all raising flop very high frequency
You might be right about sizing OTR. But when he raises he only has boats/flushes and a boat most likely raises my turn donk so now he is only repping flushes. And if I bet small like 1/3 OTR he might raise a straight.
I think it really depends on his flop strategy. If this guy is incorrectly ranging 1/3 here then this is just a snap call OTR. But if he is playing 1/3 mixed strategy then he his range is stronger.
I might have to solve this one later and try both assumptions about flop strategy.
I ended up calling but still not sure about the right play.
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I think blockbet is the only way. We cant let him xb his TP at the same time I dont see any non spade hand (trips maybe) betting big, he just got too many flushes in his range, also some J8 now. Vs shove I think you can fold always. Like the Turn donk, but dont overdo it.
Edit: didnt mention QJo, thats a lot of combinations, you can bet big these ofc even tho you need to be more picky w blockers later on. He got them also therefore KTo is kinda owning itself and would much better serve in blockbetting range.
I don't think he raises straight's OTR which is actually a reason to bet bigger. Since if I bet small he might.
You can memorize it but it's just easier to imagine ranges. IP isn't going to cbet all his 7x and his cbet range is going to be much wider than my calling range OTF. Plus I am mostly calling 7x and maybe XRing the weaker 7x at some frequency.
So OTT I have
1) More condensed range
2) More 7x
So it's a donk spot.
Yeah, but this is why I asked why you chose to rep 7x while holding a decent Kx, i.e., turn it into a "bluff". I can see donking the turn w/7x+ or bluffs but donking a hand with very good sd value instead seems very counter-intuitive whether it's solver approved or not.
Yeah, but this is why I asked why you chose to rep 7x while holding a decent Kx, i.e., turn it into a "bluff". I can see donking the turn w/7x+ or bluffs but donking a hand with very good sd value instead seems very counter-intuitive whether it's solver approved or not.
Then you'd be donkng polarized so you'd size up with your strategy.
At my sizing I can donk a lot of my range since Villain has to defend much worse than Kx or he is overfolding.
I mean even if he does bluff you like this his only natural combos are TxJs and QsTx which is only 4? combos bluffs that are natural and likely aren't always raising as a bluff on river and there are definitely some players who just won't bluff it almost ever.
Also think he can raise straights on the river... he definitely doesn't need a boat as I said you don't have many boats and you don't even really have that many flushes. Hands in his range such as QsJx are definitely going to be ok to raise otr for value vs. your weaker straights and 7x.