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50NL - AQos River Decision 50NL - AQos River Decision
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10-26-2021 , 09:12 PM
#1
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Villain is 55/4/0 in 50 hands. People who play that many hands love to limp suited and connected hands for sure. Thoughts on play as a whole and the river are appreciated.

BB: 42.56 BB
UTG: 202.06 BB
Hero (CO): 155.92 BB
BTN: 100 BB
SB: 118.78 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q A

fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) A 6 4
BB checks, Hero bets 2 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Turn: (9.5 BB, 2 players) J
BB checks, Hero bets 9 BB, BB calls 9 BB

River: (27.5 BB, 2 players) 3
BB bets 29.06 BB and is all-in, Hero?
50NL - AQos River Decision Quote
10-26-2021 , 09:26 PM
#2
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Call riv
Flop could be bigger
50NL - AQos River Decision Quote
10-26-2021 , 09:37 PM
#3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Haizemberg93
Call riv
Flop could be bigger
Yeah flop should’ve been bigger to set up the River better.
50NL - AQos River Decision Quote
10-27-2021 , 03:42 AM
#4
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Looks fine to me. Ya, flop could be half pot I suppose. I definitely call river, especially with the Ad blocker. Even recs with passive stats will randomly do this with AT or 65 or whatever. I guess they want to go busto on their own terms.
50NL - AQos River Decision Quote
10-27-2021 , 01:47 PM
#5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unguarded
Looks fine to me. Ya, flop could be half pot I suppose. I definitely call river, especially with the Ad blocker. Even recs with passive stats will randomly do this with AT or 65 or whatever. I guess they want to go busto on their own terms.
Thanks, yeah they can show up with a pretty wide range for sure.
50NL - AQos River Decision Quote
10-27-2021 , 01:55 PM
#6
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The sizing on the flop I think is good, we have a range advantage but villain may have all two-pair combos and weaker sets OTF so without the nut advantage I think we bet for a smaller sizing.

I think fold river, all the draws come, villain can have a ton of diamonds here aswell as 75,53 in his range. could also have all combos of A3 and slowly played two-pairs and sets.
50NL - AQos River Decision Quote
10-27-2021 , 02:28 PM
#7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donkeybets
The sizing on the flop I think is good, we have a range advantage but villain may have all two-pair combos and weaker sets OTF so without the nut advantage I think we bet for a smaller sizing.

I think fold river, all the draws come, villain can have a ton of diamonds here aswell as 75,53 in his range. could also have all combos of A3 and slowly played two-pairs and sets.
Yeah all kinds of stuff definitely comes in, but he's also playing over half his hands and having the Ad you block some flushes he could have. I don't think you can fold to a person with these stats for just one PSB on the river, only needing to be good roughly 33% of the time. He had 78h, so you will find these players doing goofy things like this and just have to look them up with a bluffcatcher like this I think.
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10-27-2021 , 02:33 PM
#8
Flpmethntsdlr
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I'm AI by the turn.
50NL - AQos River Decision Quote
10-27-2021 , 02:46 PM
#9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flpmethntsdlr
I'm AI by the turn.
How so, by overbetting flop and jamming turn?
50NL - AQos River Decision Quote
10-27-2021 , 02:50 PM
#10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Unguarded
Looks fine to me. Ya, flop could be half pot I suppose. I definitely call river, especially with the Ad blocker. Even recs with passive stats will randomly do this with AT or 65 or whatever. I guess they want to go busto on their own terms.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 0NoobiePoker0
Yeah all kinds of stuff definitely comes in, but he's also playing over half his hands and having the Ad you block some flushes he could have. I don't think you can fold to a person with these stats for just one PSB on the river, only needing to be good roughly 33% of the time. He had 78h, so you will find these players doing goofy things like this and just have to look them up with a bluffcatcher like this I think.
I don't love the call. even if you add all combos of A9,AT, and broken gutshots like all combos of 87, and 85 into his bluffing range we still only have 27% here. He doesn't really have many 5x that bluff the river most of his 5x are diamond draws that get there on the river I believe. When a river comes in that completes all the draws and is bad for us I think we can easily fold here. Unless we had more info other than the stats in the OP.

50NL - AQos River Decision Quote
10-27-2021 , 03:03 PM
#11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Donkeybets
I don't love the call. even if you add all combos of A9,AT, and broken gutshots like all combos of 87, and 85 into his bluffing range we still only have 27% here. He doesn't really have many 5x that bluff the river most of his 5x are diamond draws that get there on the river I believe. When a river comes in that completes all the draws and is bad for us I think we can easily fold here. Unless we had more info other than the stats in the OP.

I respect the analysis but I think you always have to factor in a certain percentage of the time plays that don't make a whole lot of sense when dealing with a broken stack rec playing over half their hands. This card looks scary and they just jam what they have left, whatever they were chasing with, hoping for a fold. They aren't thinking on the same level as people who study the game are thinking on.
50NL - AQos River Decision Quote
10-27-2021 , 03:18 PM
#12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 0NoobiePoker0
How so, by overbetting flop and jamming turn?
Yeah, pretty much. Sometimes more pre, big flop bet, jam turn.
50NL - AQos River Decision Quote
10-27-2021 , 03:38 PM
#13
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we should be going bigger pre with a fish in BB. 3-5x is appropriate, depending on where their pain threshold is.

not folding river. I'd bet 3/4 OTF without any more specific reads. If we size up pre and 3/4 flop we can jam turn for a 1.5x overbet or so, and expect to get called by worse a lot
50NL - AQos River Decision Quote
10-27-2021 , 03:41 PM
#14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnRusty
we should be going bigger pre with a fish in BB. 3-5x is appropriate, depending on where their pain threshold is.
Yeah I do need to raise bigger in these spots targeting fish and their can't fold tendencies.
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10-27-2021 , 03:46 PM
#15
Crich
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Did you call what did he have?
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10-27-2021 , 03:49 PM
#16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crich
Did you call what did he have?
I did, he had 78h.
50NL - AQos River Decision Quote
10-27-2021 , 03:59 PM
#17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 0NoobiePoker0
I did, he had 78h.
lol
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