Well this is interesting......

Hero (BB): 110.2 BB
UTG: 103.18 BB
CO: 13.58 BB
BTN: 75.34 BB
SB: 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A K

fold, CO calls 1 BB, BTN raises to 75.34 BB and is all-in, SB raises to 100 BB and is all-in,

Hero

and they say poker is dead. can probably nit fold

to elaborate: even if we're against something like 55 and JTs, we only have 34% equity.

I would call AKs but fold this combo

Yeah folding ist fine

Any reads or notes on how the BTN has been playing?

If he has been playing at all erratic it's a definite call.

I like the call regardless. We are basically 4 handed given CO's stack.

Button just showed up with a broken stack, no history, it was his first orbit. SB was 27/23/22 in only 32 hands. I was in a gambling mood and didn't think I could be in that horrible of shape.


Hero (BB): 110.2 BB
UTG: 103.18 BB
CO: 13.58 BB
BTN: 75.34 BB
SB: 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A K

fold, CO calls 1 BB, BTN raises to 75.34 BB and is all-in, SB raises to 100 BB and is all-in, Hero raises to 110.2 BB and is all-in, CO calls 12.58 BB and is all-in

Flop: (288.92 BB, 4 players) 9 K J

Turn: (288.92 BB, 4 players) Q

River: (288.92 BB, 4 players) 2

SB shows Q A (One Pair, Queens)

Main Pot [54.32 BB]: (Pre 11%, Flop 17%, Turn 4%)
Side Pot#1 [185.28 BB]: (Pre 11%, Flop 18%, Turn 5%)
Side Pot#2 [49.32 BB]: (Pre 21%, Flop 19%, Turn 5%)

Hero shows A K (One Pair, Kings)

Main Pot [54.32 BB]: (Pre 31%, Flop 57%, Turn 4%)
Side Pot#1 [185.28 BB]: (Pre 39%, Flop 77%, Turn 5%)
Side Pot#2 [49.32 BB]: (Pre 79%, Flop 81%, Turn 95%)

BTN shows Q Q (Three of a Kind, Queens)

Main Pot [54.32 BB]: (Pre 37%, Flop 4%, Turn 73%)
Side Pot#1 [185.28 BB]: (Pre 50%, Flop 5%, Turn 90%)

CO shows J 8 (One Pair, Jacks)

Main Pot [54.32 BB]: (Pre 21%, Flop 22%, Turn 20%)

Hero wins 49.32 BB
BTN wins 234.6 BB

if one has aa and one qq your equity is 5%

if one is kk and one qq then your equity is 25%

if one is qq and one jj then your equity is 36%

so you are probably at best getting variance for 0 ev

seem like a fold

vs the acutal line up you had 31% equity so you were risking 110 to win approx 285 or 38% of the pot in hindsight was a fold by just 7% and you did say you wanted to gamboooool

Yeah I knew at best it was a break even or slightly winning/losing play. This basically never happens so may as well have some fun with a hand like AK when it does.

And I'm really only risking 100BB here as that's the effective stack size, and you have to figure the short stack is coming along to try and quadruple up. So I'm risking 100 to win 288.92. So by my math that's about 35%, and I have 31%, so even a bit better off, but still slightly losing.

You have 36.8% here, or am I missing something.

AhKd (hero) - win 36.81%
AsQs - win 9.73%
QdQh - win 51.24%


But in general I don't think this is a losing play at all. Maybe I suck ha!!

I guess true, if you just remove the short stack from the equation, you're risking 100 to win 275.34 so that's 36%, and I'm almost 37% to win among those three hands, so I guess it's about break even there. I'm not sure when factoring in the J8c short stack how that really changes things mathematically. But either way it's a very close spot and I decided I was up for a gamble lol.