Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

CO: $88.60
BTN: $48.50
SB: $30.95
BB: $44.15
UTG: $56.75
Hero (MP): $50.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP with 5 5
1 fold, Hero raises to $2, 3 folds, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.25) A A 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $2.50, BB raises to $6.50, Hero folds


Villain is 16/10/3.2 over 150. I've got a fairly aggressive and semi-lag image, running about 28/24. Villain is obv pretty tight, but his line just doesn't make sense. I bet small because I thought a smaller bet would be more believable on this super dry board. I'm wondering if I accidentally induced a c/r, because what villain would c/r an A or 22 on such a dry flop unless it's a bluff? I was considering calling flop, betting if checked to (to fold out his higher pairs) and folding to a check-raise or checking behind on river if called. Then I realized that he's probably just thinking, "ZOMG I HAS TRIPS I RAISE!" Am I just overthinking this, or do you ever call here to see what he does on the turn?

Look at your call button and then click the button that is, like Beyonce sings, "to the left to the left".

the laggy side of me says re-pop him. but that can't be right...

this made me literally lol

The only reason i would call and i do sometimes is too bluff-raise the turn. but to do this i need to know my opponent is cable of better than fit or fold poker, ie he realises that this board is dry and i wouldn't be able to continue with much other than an Ace.

he is not repping an Ace here. it could be anything from 66-TTs which is what TAGs usually cold call with

easy fold for sure, unless there's some history we don't know about

FWIW if you think he is bluffing I think calling and donking the turn would be better than three betting.

If he doesn't have an Ace and you think he has 66-TT surely we can get him out of the pot?

Agree a turn play is better as on the flop it looks bluffier. We are in position so he acts first on the turn. If he checks i'm betting strong. If he bets, im pushing.

Oops midread the action we are IP. Sounds backward to say it but it makes it more difficult because if he's loose he's gonna barrel alot of turns expecting to fold out underpairs (which is what we have). Maybe I'm giving him too much credit for being a thinking player though. Alot of opponents play transparent on the turn and give up on their c/r bluffs at these stakes, in which case evaluating on the turn is okay. Again though if he checks on the turn I wouldn't mind checking behind and getting to a cheap showdown, because his range is either Ax, 22 or a bluff. If he has something like 99 he's just totally ******ed.

If I had AK I would definitely 3-bet the flop. I think calling and betting a later street gets looked up by Jacks etc a lot more.

(edit: this probably means I'm not getting full value when I have AK so it's a bad line, but meh... you have to mix it up and balance.)

In the spirit of "good, sold poker", though, this is an easy fold. You should only be pulling outrageous bluffs very rarely, and then when you're fairly sure your opponent is weak, and I don't see much to indicate that he's weak here. He can easily have AQ, AJ etc.

BUT if we decided to bluff, one thing that should be absolutely clear is that we're NOT trying to make him fold an Ace. That is a supremely bad idea. We just need to bet enough to make him fold middle pairs, so 3-bet really small on the flop, like to $13. Never put any more money in unless you catch a 5 on turn or river.

props, son

I'm not saying that I want to make a habit of calling check-raises on AAx boards against all but the spewiest of spewtards, but I am interested in introducing a little multiple level thinking into my game . . . against opponents who are capable of thinking on multiple levels, of course. I just think its a little better to think, "Does this play make sense given what I know about my opponent's tendencies and his previous actions in the hand," rather than, "Oh noes, he check-raises! He must has tripzzzz!!"

the place to start is pf. what range do you think a 16/10 is calling a pf raise with oop?

All pocket pairs. Not many aces.

so, lets say 22-TT/AQ/AJs

now, how likely do you think it is that he c/rs with each of these hands?

i'd guess something like:

AQ/AJs 50%
88-TT 20%
22-77 10%

just a rough guess.

er, 22 more often obv

How many combos of 33-TT (I'd include JJ and some QQ too).
Howmany combos of AQ/AJs.

Using your ranges:
33-TT = 8*6 = 48 hands.
22,AQ,AJs, = 3+8+2 = 13 hands.

Even with your check raise % it is still more likely he has a PP than an Ace.

he could also have AK too, or other random stuff that he probably wouldn't play this way, but just trying to keep the math simple and go through the process.

so, using your numbers, which seem right to me.

(hands that beat us) 13 * (frequency) .5 = 6.5
(hands we beat) 6 * (frequency) .1 = 0.6
(hands that beat us but probably fold) 12 * (frequency) .1 = 1.2
(hands that beat us but probably fold) 18 * (frequency) .2 = 0.9
(hands we chop with) 1 * (frequency) .1 = 0.1

since we can't really call with the ammount of equity we have vs. this range, we can't really use a plan that targets the small ammount of hands that we beat, so we'll just figure them into the same category as hands that beat us but probably fold, since they will play the same.

hands that beat us = 6.5
hands that probably fold = 2.8

since the board is super dry, and hands that probably fold are drawing to 2 percieved outs, if we raise, it can be very small.

i'm not advocating folding (or anything) by the way. i'm just trying to show how much weighting frequencies when you don't know a person's default play can influence your actions. in this case, the fact that you're more likely to get raised by an A than a smaller pair makes a big difference. its easy enough to make a guess as to how often you get raised by an A (in this case i guessed 50%), and then from there find the minimum frequency that villain needs to raise with lesser hands to make bluffing profitable.

It is obvioulsy a situational play, as some player will 0% check raise with a pocket pair here.
I also think if the villain is capable of cr'ing the flop it doesn't matter if he has 33-TT or JT, it will still be a similar frequency.

I actually used this play the other day, except i had something like JT on an AA6r flop, i will track it down in my db when i get home.

just to make a small correction, when i said that calling wasn't really an option, i meant calling with the intent of showing the hand down, not calling with the intent of bluffing turn.

I don't like bluffing turn (or calling flop at all), there isn't much point, I think usually you end up losing and nl50 isn't really the place for complicated stuff like this. It's so easy to beat playing straightforward.

I really only read the op and some of daycares, but 1. fast playing is the new slowplaying, and 2. I never call to see what people do on the turn if I think there is a large chance that I do not have the best hand, because most of the time you are facing a double barrel.