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Old 01-06-2009, 06:31 PM   #26
ddubois
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Re: 400nl - i fold a boat for once wtf!

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Originally Posted by holdme View Post
this guy was like "im gonna raise huge against this guys range which very well could contain boats as well as a ton of straights because im going to get him to fold"?
OP practically never has a boat; KJ and KT don't bet that turn, and according to everyone in this thread TT shouldn't either. AK/AA/KK/JJ are extremely rare given preflop.

So OP should have a Q like 90% of the time, if not just combinatorically, then in a Bayesian sense. And OP demonstrably can't call with a Q.

I mean, maybe villain had it, because he shoved, and that's what us non-thinkers do when we have the nuts, but his play is pretty awful for value, and much better as a bluff. Of course, the worstest thing ever is when he makes an terrble shove, and you make his mistake correct my calling with worse.
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Old 01-06-2009, 06:34 PM   #27
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Re: 400nl - i fold a boat for once wtf!

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Originally Posted by ddubois View Post
OP practically never has a boat; KJ and KT don't bet that turn, and according to everyone in this thread TT shouldn't either. AK/AA/KK/JJ are extremely rare given preflop.

So OP should have a Q like 90% of the time, if not just combinatorically, then in a Bayesian sense. And OP demonstrably can't call with a Q.

I mean, maybe villain had it, because he shoved, and that's what us non-thinkers do when we have the nuts, but his play is pretty awful for value, and much better as a bluff.

unless we get into levels in which case we can flip this on its head. If he thinks OP is thinking and may lean towards being a SD-monkey then it's great for value, and terrible as a bluff.

so I agree with your post, but we can easily turn this into a leveling situation and justify either play.
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Old 01-07-2009, 12:09 AM   #28
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Re: 400nl - i fold a boat for once wtf!

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not 3 betting pre is really bad. yeah fold riv.
wrong..

I call this river and cry when he has AA.
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Old 01-07-2009, 08:13 AM   #29
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Re: 400nl - i fold a boat for once wtf!

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Originally Posted by ddubois View Post
OP practically never has a boat; KJ and KT don't bet that turn, and according to everyone in this thread TT shouldn't either. AK/AA/KK/JJ are extremely rare given preflop.

So OP should have a Q like 90% of the time, if not just combinatorically, then in a Bayesian sense. And OP demonstrably can't call with a Q.

I mean, maybe villain had it, because he shoved, and that's what us non-thinkers do when we have the nuts, but his play is pretty awful for value, and much better as a bluff. Of course, the worstest thing ever is when he makes an terrble shove, and you make his mistake correct my calling with worse.
Good analysis.
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Old 01-07-2009, 09:31 AM   #30
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Re: 400nl - i fold a boat for once wtf!

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Originally Posted by AAismyfriend View Post
I think preflop is fine, and I think this is a fold vs most. I guess i'd call vs spewier villains but wouldn't be very happy about it.

listen to this guy... like always.
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Old 01-07-2009, 10:37 AM   #31
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Re: 400nl - i fold a boat for once wtf!

I like 3 bet pre flop as his range is huge on the button, then you have a lot better idea where you stand. I feel that the river is a bit of an overbet, meaning that he can often have a Q there. You've under represented your hand massively, so I think a call on the river on balance is the right play.
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Old 01-07-2009, 01:53 PM   #32
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Re: 400nl - i fold a boat for once wtf!

after all these responses i still have no idea what is correct. figures.

thx guys. i guess im leaning more towards folding. it seems like i have a q which makes my decision harder since its very possible that he could be trying to push me off of what he thinks is a chop. I dont think i ever fold this when its 100bb starting stacks.

Last edited by squizzel; 01-07-2009 at 02:00 PM.
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Old 01-07-2009, 02:02 PM   #33
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Re: 400nl - i fold a boat for once wtf!

He could be bluffing or getting us off a chop. I don't mind a call
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Old 01-07-2009, 02:40 PM   #34
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Re: 400nl - i fold a boat for once wtf!

In the SB with TT I think a 3 bet is best, given the BTN bet. If you don't take it PF, with this hand you'd have a much bigger pot on the river making the call easier.

As played, river fold is best. Yes, he has you on the Str8, but if he has the Q, why no re-raise on turn? To me, it looks as though he had 2 pair on turn, rivered the boat and expect his over bet to be called.
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Old 01-07-2009, 02:56 PM   #35
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Re: 400nl - i fold a boat for once wtf!

3bet pf. call river.

Our hand is underepped, and if villain is a thinking player he has to know that we basically never have a boat on this board.
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Old 01-07-2009, 05:23 PM   #36
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Re: 400nl - i fold a boat for once wtf!

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I'm not a huge fan of the turn bet. I mean I guess I could see villain calling the turn w/ an A or some other pair because you are repping a Q for the most part. The more I think about it the more I like betting the turn against certain opponents. But you have to be careful, because most opponents will never put you on a boat on the river and you can't bet/call Qx...

Ya, he can't bet/call a queen (maybe even c/c riv w/ a queen is best, then?), but even so, I don't think most villains are overshoving here as either a pure bluff or to get him off a chop. Especially not a villain w/ a 1 a.f.! (not that this is necessarily villain's true a.f. - also, villain doesn't actually only 3 bet 1% preflop, does he!?- 150 hands is a small sample )

Ya, like piz said, I think AK/AA make sense, checking behind flop to avoid a checkraise, which would put them in a tough spot. AK was my initial thought when i saw the hand ("i put him on AK"!)


**And for those who say villain may know we can't have a boat and have to fold a queen- is this really sufficient reason for calling a villain we don't know well, and whose a.f. is 1 over a smallish sample?

Last edited by ihearthawrilenko; 01-07-2009 at 05:38 PM.
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Old 01-07-2009, 05:29 PM   #37
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Re: 400nl - i fold a boat for once wtf!

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Originally Posted by ddubois View Post
OP practically never has a boat; KJ and KT don't bet that turn, and according to everyone in this thread TT shouldn't either. AK/AA/KK/JJ are extremely rare given preflop.

So OP should have a Q like 90% of the time, if not just combinatorically, then in a Bayesian sense. And OP demonstrably can't call with a Q.

I mean, maybe villain had it, because he shoved, and that's what us non-thinkers do when we have the nuts, but his play is pretty awful for value, and much better as a bluff. Of course, the worstest thing ever is when he makes an terrble shove, and you make his mistake correct my calling with worse.

Are you calling w/ a queen here, dubois?
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Old 01-07-2009, 05:33 PM   #38
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Re: 400nl - i fold a boat for once wtf!

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Originally Posted by glpmurray View Post
I like 3 bet pre flop as his range is huge on the button, then you have a lot better idea where you stand. I feel that the river is a bit of an overbet, meaning that he can often have a Q there. You've under represented your hand massively, so I think a call on the river on balance is the right play.

Those who prefer 3 betting tens preflop- do u still like this if villain doesn't 4 bet bluff, and u don't feel comfortable getting it in?
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Old 01-07-2009, 06:52 PM   #39
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Re: 400nl - i fold a boat for once wtf!

Calling with a Q is a little different iheart because villain may have a Q as well so the times you call and you're right, you are chopping.
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Old 01-07-2009, 07:02 PM   #40
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Re: 400nl - i fold a boat for once wtf!

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Are you calling w/ a queen here, dubois?
No, I'm a nit.
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Old 01-07-2009, 07:34 PM   #41
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Re: 400nl - i fold a boat for once wtf!

when does he ever have a queen? only if he's absolutely terrible. This is a good fold.
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Old 01-07-2009, 07:47 PM   #42
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Re: 400nl - i fold a boat for once wtf!

could the villian not have KQ here??? and think he has the nuts?......
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Old 01-07-2009, 11:08 PM   #43
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Re: 400nl - i fold a boat for once wtf!

think its a pretty easy call what are u worried about JJJ or KKKKK?
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Old 01-08-2009, 12:16 AM   #44
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Re: 400nl - i fold a boat for once wtf!

I really dislike line taken on this hand. Button raise could be anything here. You learned very little about the strength of villains hand until the end. I agree that the turn bet was not good but I think the flop check was worse. If you are not going to repop preflop I think you really need to be putting in a feeler bet on the flop. You needed more information about his range here and by not raising till turn, you gave yourself little opportunity to gather this info. As played I think a river call would have been my line. No way he has you on a full house here and his range for this push seems like it could be just about anything to me. Seems like you gave him a perfect bluffing opportunity and he took it.
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Old 01-08-2009, 12:59 AM   #45
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Re: 400nl - i fold a boat for once wtf!

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No, I'm a nit.

Well, I asked cuz TT is basically the next best hand after a queen. Ya, as Imrahil said, you're obviously now only winning 1/2 the pot when he also has a queen, so we'd have to be right significantly more often (we have to win about 40ish% in the actual hand, right? how often do we have to be right if we have a queen? around 67%). It's tough for me to really hae any good idea of how often TT is actually good there. Perhaps villain dependant and the answer is either close to never or reasonably often? I feel like if TT is a call, then a Q might be close to a call as well. Is there a way to show mathematically that it would be correct to call TT and fold a queen?
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Old 01-08-2009, 01:12 AM   #46
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Re: 400nl - i fold a boat for once wtf!

fold. This hand is pretty similar to that WSOP hand where the guy folds jacks full on a J K A 10 10 board. Villain is not raising a straight in this scenario, so what are you actually beating ? Nothing but a bluff. Unless you know villain is pretty sick and capable of a bluff, i like a fold. I think we have all seen these overshoves enough, and you want to smash your monitor when you call these off and see exactly what you thought; the NUTS
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Old 01-08-2009, 02:05 AM   #47
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Re: 400nl - i fold a boat for once wtf!

I first thought he's using the board pairing to get us off a chop, but I think this is AA, AK way more often.
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Old 01-08-2009, 02:07 AM   #48
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Re: 400nl - i fold a boat for once wtf!

Are any of you regularly seeing people shove this much money into this small of with anything other than a monster? In my experiences, this kind of shove is always someone who thinks he can beat an opponents strong, but underrepped hand.

This is AK or AA, like 95% of the time.

Villian f-ed up the flop badly, but based on preflop action, he should know that we either have a straight, a boat, or a small pocket pair. The pocket pair isn't going to call anything, so he's shoving because he knows how much trouble we are going to have folding our made hand.

He is giving us a absolute gift here by shoving and letting us know how strong he is.
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Old 01-08-2009, 04:43 AM   #49
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Re: 400nl - i fold a boat for once wtf!

This is so clearly a fold. He just has AA/AK all day, especially when you bet 72 into 76 on the river.
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Old 01-08-2009, 01:18 PM   #50
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Re: 400nl - i fold a boat for once wtf!

POKERSTARS GAME #23631192237: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($2/$4) - 2009/01/06 12:16:20 ET
Table 'Sahade' 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Dixon01 ($431 in chips)
Seat 2: ScanX ($400 in chips)
Seat 3: CloudySky85 ($406 in chips)
Seat 4: Br0k3n_Aces ($429 in chips)
Seat 5: PrnceImrahil ($584 in chips)
Seat 6: squizzel ($647.20 in chips)
squizzel: posts small blind $2
Dixon01: posts big blind $4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to PrnceImrahil [Ks 8h]
ScanX: folds
CloudySky85: folds
Br0k3n_Aces: folds
PrnceImrahil: raises $10 to $14
squizzel: calls $12
Dixon01: folds
*** FLOP *** [Jc Tc Kh]
squizzel: checks
PrnceImrahil: checks
*** TURN *** [Jc Tc Kh] [As]
squizzel: bets $22
PrnceImrahil: calls $22
*** RIVER *** [Jc Tc Kh As] [Kd]
squizzel: bets $72
PrnceImrahil: raises $476 to $548 and is all-in
squizzel: folds
Uncalled bet ($476) returned to PrnceImrahil
PrnceImrahil collected $217 from pot
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