I'm going to play devil's advocate a bit here. I am still kind of on the fence on this one. My initial thoughts are never folding and either jamming or calling turn. I posted my full thoughts earlier in DDP's blog.
From DDP's blog thread:
Quote:
Originally Posted by DooDooPoker
I made a post in the micro stakes forum as well. But yeah MDA say's it's a fold (although I only have XC30-XR for this exact spot).
MDA here.
What is the likelihood that V could be a rec? My thoughts are the turn minraise is a data point there which could be consistent with rec behavior. Maybe the min raise pre from CO instead of larger? Obviously it's nothing like seeing a 3x open. My thinking is, even if it is a small liklihood that it is a rec, this could skew the EV slightly in our favor. Thinking is that a rec is a big more likely to overvalue turned top pair and a bit more likely to min raise as a bluff and then possibly bluff shove river even though the fold equity will not be perceived as super high.
I'm not super used to reading MDA. How does board texture affect our decision here and does it give us reason to think this situation might be different from what the MDA tells us overall? Still feels like there can be some AJs, KJs bluffs, and that on this board Qx is a pretty strong hand. So MDA might reflect villain underbluffing, but still potentially having a fair amount of value we beat. We're getting 5:1 on the turn min raise to face a 2.8:1 river jam. I'm a little swayed by the discussion here, but it still seems close. Definitely doesn't seem like a spot that is absolutely printing. But how confident are we that it's minus EV? And how bad do we think it is -EV?