Unknown Villain

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NL Holdem 2(BB)
CO ($296.21)
HERO ($218.80)
SB ($319.45) [VPIP: 29.7% | PFR: 21.6% | AGG: 28.6% | Hands: 39]
BB ($365.86) [VPIP: 35.7% | PFR: 31% | AGG: 38.1% | Hands: 42]

Dealt to Hero: K K

CO Raises To $4, HERO Raises To $16, SB Folds, BB Folds, CO Calls $12

Hero SPR on Flop: [6.66 effective]
Flop ($35): T 8 2
CO Checks, HERO Bets $17 (Rem. Stack: $185.80), CO Calls $17 (Rem. Stack: $267.21)

Turn ($69): T 8 2 Q
CO Checks, HERO Bets $35, CO Raises to $70, HERO ?

I would call. Assuming CO is decent they shouldn't actually have a lot of hands that beat you. QQ should have been 4bet pre and 22/88/10 are only calling as part or their preflop strategy. I would also expect 22 and 88 to do a lot of flop craising. J9 shouldn't really be a thing either

I would guess min-raise on turn is an underbluffed line in this spot, especially on a turn card where we still have an equity advantage. I think we call down and hate ourselves a bit if they have it, but if they check river we should jam for value targeting specifically KQs.

I fold this even vs 91/55 mega fish

I think we established a few months ago that the x/minraise is 2p+ like 87% of the time. I'd maybe call the turn being IP if I was basically drawing to the nuts, but that isn't really the case here.

They probably shove river enough (where we rarely have a +EV call) it makes sense to just fold turn.

Before looking at this in H2N, are you guys really able to fold this easily? Intuitively? I feel like a backwards nit and a station at the same time (like nitting up when i shouldn't and stationing when i should fold)

Thanks for the data swerbs, I have similar results.

Thanks everybody, I wanted to get a feel on how people were thinking about this spot.

well i feel like a spot now... lol

haha well I think folding is definitely correct against an unknown but it's interesting that some people are calling and then listening to their logic on why they are calling.

I'm going to play devil's advocate a bit here. I am still kind of on the fence on this one. My initial thoughts are never folding and either jamming or calling turn. I posted my full thoughts earlier in DDP's blog.

From DDP's blog thread:

What is the likelihood that V could be a rec? My thoughts are the turn minraise is a data point there which could be consistent with rec behavior. Maybe the min raise pre from CO instead of larger? Obviously it's nothing like seeing a 3x open. My thinking is, even if it is a small liklihood that it is a rec, this could skew the EV slightly in our favor. Thinking is that a rec is a big more likely to overvalue turned top pair and a bit more likely to min raise as a bluff and then possibly bluff shove river even though the fold equity will not be perceived as super high.

I'm not super used to reading MDA. How does board texture affect our decision here and does it give us reason to think this situation might be different from what the MDA tells us overall? Still feels like there can be some AJs, KJs bluffs, and that on this board Qx is a pretty strong hand. So MDA might reflect villain underbluffing, but still potentially having a fair amount of value we beat. We're getting 5:1 on the turn min raise to face a 2.8:1 river jam. I'm a little swayed by the discussion here, but it still seems close. Definitely doesn't seem like a spot that is absolutely printing. But how confident are we that it's minus EV? And how bad do we think it is -EV?

To effectively play Devil's Advocate you need to produce evidence of why you are correct. Just going off your experience doesn't work as we have seen time and time again. Experience has too many innate biases. Online poker is a data game.

I don't think it's close.

Here is some data from slyless awhile back for the fish profile, I'd actually be more inclined to fold vs a fish than reg but folding vs both. XC-MinXR line from a fish is one of the most nutted lines in poker.

Cool, you've convinced me.

Thanks for the data man, do you happen to know if minclicks ip on turn from fish is also underbluffed? I think I remember Saulo Costa showing some MDA on minclicks on flop ip from fish being overbluffed, not sure about turn.

I have it at 62% 2pair+ and 83% tp+ when call flop/raise turn. Doesn't distinguish minclick vs regular raise sizing.

Yeah flop is overbluffed and turn is underbluffed