Yatahay Network - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
Hero (BTN): 198.18 BB
SB: 100.5 BB
BB: 200.82 BB
UTG: 107.08 BB
MP: 106.2 BB
CO: 108.16 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 5
4
fold,
fold,
CO raises to 3 BB,
Hero raises to 8 BB,
fold,
fold,
CO raises to 26 BB,
Hero calls 18 BB
Flop: (53.5 BB, 2 players) 2
A
8
CO bets 26.74 BB
Preflop
Against CO RFI of 2.25 bb, my frequencies with 5
4
are:
Fold @ 50%, Call @ 25%, 3-bet @ 25%
I had a misclick and meant to 3-bet to 9.5 bb, but only fired off 8 bb. I tightened the range against this larger RFI size a little by eliminating some of my calls, but the RNG returned a number between 1 and 25, so 3-bet it was! (I've included my 4-bet calling range as the IP solver range at the end of the post, but 54s on the BTN always calls the CO 4-bet.)
Flop
After a half-pot c-bet, I'm really shocked that the solver has me continue with all 54s:
I understand the semi-bluff raise with 5
4
holding a gutshot and flush draw, but I'm really surprised that the other 54-suited hands call--even the ones without a BDFD! If I call flop, the SPR on the turn is 0.52. So even if Villain checks turn, I don't have that much bluff equity since calling gives him 3:1 odds. I'd expect TT-KK to still call at that depth, but maybe I'm wrong.
Can anyone make better sense of this strategy? I'm thinking it has to do with Villain slowplaying some of his strongest hands like AA and A
x
, so his c-bet range is more merged. Looking at various turns, if villain checks, we bluff a fair amount. Although for a lot of
and
turn cards, we bluff 5
4
and 5
4
but check back 5
4
, presumably because we're hoping villain is on a spade FD or heart BDFD. For most
turns, if villain checks, we check back most of our range.
Maybe the solver is recommending this counterintuitive strategy because it thinks OOP checks turn about half the time. I don't have credible stats on this Villian, but in reality, I doubt the turn check rate is that high. If Villain double barrels nearly 100% of the time he c-bets and gets called on the flop, then we'd have to fold flop. So perhaps folding flop is a reasonable exploit against the pool?
FWIW, these are the ranges I'm using in the solver:
(OOP) CO RFI, BTN 3B, CO 4-Bet
(IP) CO RFI, BTN 3B, CO 4-Bet, BTN Call