Is this a huge punt? If i'd looked closer at his stats i might've river, vs reg im assuming we have to go with it on the river. Still it's a small sample size on anonymous site.


NL Holdem 0.10(BB)
HERO (123.5BBs) [VPIP: 21% | PFR: 17.9% | AGG: 38.5% | Flop Agg: 45.6% | Turn Agg: 38.3% | River Agg: 31.6% | 3Bet: 8.7% | Fold to 3Bet: 54.5% | 4Bet: 10.6% | Hands: 75817]
BB (143.5BBs) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 11.7% | AGG: 25.7% | Flop Agg: 8.3% | Turn Agg: 25% | River Agg: 50% | 3Bet: 15.8% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 28.6% | Hands: 62]
UTG (103.2BBs) [VPIP: 56.5% | PFR: 30.4% | AGG: 21.7% | Hands: 23]
HJ (135.5BBs) [VPIP: 22.4% | PFR: 17.9% | AGG: 23.3% | Hands: 68]
CO (58BBs) [VPIP: 63.3% | PFR: 33.3% | AGG: 23.5% | Hands: 32]
BTN (96.7BBs) [VPIP: 38.5% | PFR: 12.8% | AGG: 50% | Hands: 40]

Dealt to Hero: T 9

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Raises To 3.5BBs, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To 13BBs, BB Calls 12BBs, CO Folds

Hero SPR on Flop: [3.75 effective]
Flop (29.5BBs): 8 8 5
HERO Bets 9.3BBs (Rem. Stack: 101.2BBs), BB Calls 9.3BBs (Rem. Stack: 121.2BBs)

Turn (48.1BBs): 8 8 5 A
HERO Bets 22.8BBs (Rem. Stack: 78.4BBs), BB Calls 22.8BBs (Rem. Stack: 98.4BBs)

River (93.7BBs): 8 8 5 A 8
HERO Bets 78.4BBs (allin), BB Calls 78.4BBs (Rem. Stack: 20BBs)

If I'd bluff, I'd rather size up turn and give up river. But also as played I'd give up river. Your small hope of folding out weak Ax just got crushed by the 8d.

I thought he could still have Broadway flush draws, JJ/TT/99. In real time I didn't really comprehend that the 8 would reduce my fold equity

Fold preflop. CO opens with an increased size and the equity of our SC is difficult to realize without position.

If you plan to bluff twice, then bet 1/3 on the turn so that your opponent comes to the river with a weaker range (some nuts raise and more FDs continue on the turn).

8 on the river is a bad runout for a bluff, even if your opponent can fold JJ/TT/99 (some folded on the turn).

We need over 45% fold equity for a profitable bluff.

Just give up.

Villain's stats seem to indicate that he's a nitfish/very weak reg. I would expect the range that such a player cold calls a 3 bet with to be somewhat capped but very narrow and quite strong. Basically a lot of middling to high pairs and good Ax. The large gap between VPIP and PFR indicates passivity so its entirely possible a player like this won't 4 bet AK. We are doing absolutely terrible against that range and i would expect immediate fold equity to our flop cbet on this board to be extremely low. Additionally our hand is pretty garbage since our pair outs may not even be good vs his overpairs. When you consider all these factors together (range disadvantage, out of position, trash hand, low fold equity), it looks like a very clear x/f on the flop.

As played, I think the river jam is a punt. He's going to fold most of his 99-JJ on the turn so you're just bluffing your stack off into an Ax heavy range on a board where Ax is never folding.

Preflop is a punt. You are 3betting a shortstack fish that opened 3.5x with T high.

Too aggressive

Dont 3bet pre unless you have a info that he is open rasing 3.5 with weak range. Flop bet also not ideal, he wont fold anything to this small bet. Turn, this is not such a good card for us as it might look like, he can have ton of Ax our hand is trash that blocks folds so you should just give up. River: if he folded all pocket pairs to turn cbet we just getting folds from missed FD and giving 80bb to his Ax. You should not be in this river spot, but once we are here if we are going to bluff sizing should be really small, you would also bet like this with value nothing worst than Ax calls jam anyway.

Ty guys. I definitely have a preflop leak of blindly following my ranges and not adjusting for variables like open size, player type, stacks etc