Hi! Villain is a tight reg.



I have 3 questions :

1. On the turn, I called because this hand is a good bluff on a lot of rivers if opponent checks, and that a 5 on the river is great, since villain is likely to call a big bet, hoping to split. What do you think? Are there other things to consider?

2. When I was reviewing the hand, I noticed that this opponent may be overbluffing (1) on the turn. I saw in a GTOw video the other day that a good way to counter very frequent probing would be to min-raise a lot (kind of forcing opponent to overfold). Do you agree? And if so, on the turn, would my hand be better off by min-raising, or would you still rather call (or fold)?

3. What do you think about river? Here I decided that villain didn't have much 5x and that 8c was a very good blocker.

Annex
1. Opponent turn probe

I really like it, villain is never bluffing with the 8, their line isn't that strong, it's BvB so wide ranges, and vs thinking opponents you rep a lot of rivered value

In practice people will bluff a lot with A OOP so I like this better than A shoves

Yeah when they check river you'll have a really huge overfold (even vs solver)

Turn raise is a nice idea. The thing about flatting turn is that a solver would play rivers optimally with it's weakened range and would never overbluff or overfold to raises. Your opponents won't so I'd rather just let them **** up river.

Thank you for the reply! I had not think about any of those things It makes sense that villain gets on the river with a lot of Ac. And then, if indeed there aren't much straights in their range, their value region is tiny, and I assume it's easy to overbluff! I'll have to look at it more in depth!

Edit : Sort of convinces me not to min-raise turn with my hand, now that I think about it. River raise seems better EV if opponent is to mess up there. Not completely sure though!