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3bet pot, 50NL

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12-22-2007 , 09:58 AM

RedBaron55

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 397

The villan is 35/27/2.29 in 132 hands.

Party Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): $150.14
UTG: $50
CO: $61.05
BTN: $49.25
SB: $80.41

Pre-Flop: A

dealt to Hero (BB)
3 folds, SB raises to $2, Hero raises to $7, SB calls $5

Flop: ($14) K

(2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $9, SB raises to $33, Hero ???

Hello, what's our line here and why?

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12-22-2007 , 10:22 AM

Eddi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 6,296

Our only two lines are push or fold, right? I think this is a great spot to push. I tried stoving it and it seems to be very close but together with the dead money and FE it immediately becomes a push.

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12-22-2007 , 10:23 AM

Lego05

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 24,923

3betting this hand here pre-flop is sucky IMO. Maybe you make A9-AJ and some small pairs fold but no other hand better than yours is gonna fold and really few hands worse than yours (and very few hands you are significantly ahead of) are going to call. I'd just call and play in position though I would float on the flop a lot.

As played fold IMO. Not such great immediate odds...and I doubt you get paid off much on a 4 club board especially with the K and J of clubs up there. Really your only good chance here is if he holds QQ with 1 club. and he could have that KK,JJ,22,AK,2 clubs already,blah blah blah.

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12-22-2007 , 10:24 AM

Lego05

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Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 24,923

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eddi

I don't think hero has any FE.

If you can show some math that shows it could be a push that'd be interesting......I did consider push for a second.

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12-22-2007 , 10:26 AM

Eddi

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Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 6,296

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lego05

I don't think hero has any FE.

Against a 35/27/3? I beg to differ.

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12-22-2007 , 10:32 AM

Eddi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 6,296

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lego05

If you can show some math that shows it could be a push that'd be interesting......I did consider push for a second.

Here's just a random range that first comes to mind:

Hand 0: 43.089% 42.64% 00.45% 41373 432.00 { Ac8d }
Hand 1: 56.911% 56.47% 00.45% 54783 432.00 { TT+, 2d2h, 2d2s, 2h2s, AJs+, KJs, QTs+, Tc9c, 9c8c, 8c7c, 7c6c, AJo+, KdQc, KhQc, KsQc, KJo, QTo+ }

I assigned a huge range I think, but hey, the guy is 35/27 and I actually may be assigning too small of a range here

Note that the required 14% difference is already in the dead money.

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12-22-2007 , 10:32 AM

Lego05

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Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 24,923

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eddi

Against a 35/27/3? I beg to differ.

So he calls a 3bet, then check raises the flop putting in half of his stack then folds to a shove when he's getting better than 3 to 1 (the pot is 130 and he must call 40)? I don't think so.

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12-22-2007 , 10:37 AM

Eddi

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Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 6,296

Ok, so here's a stupid question. 40% of the max possible pot is already in the pot. Doesn't this make us want to gamble even we ARE a 30:70 underdog against a set or a made flush?!

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12-22-2007 , 10:38 AM

Lego05

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Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 24,923

Take out TT, AJ, and QT except QT of clubs and mayybe QcTx. I'm at my g/f's...I don't have pokerstove here.

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12-22-2007 , 10:40 AM

#10

Lego05

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Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 24,923

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eddi

Ok, so here's a stupid question. 40% of the max possible pot is already in the pot. Doesn't this make us want to gamble even we ARE a 30:70 underdog against a set or a made flush?!

If somebody open raises to 100BB's and we have 100BB's then 50% of the max possible pot is in the pot so wouldn't we want to to gamble even if we are 30:70 underdog?

It's not relevant....at least not that way.

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12-22-2007 , 10:41 AM

#11

Lego05

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Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 24,923

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lego05

Take out TT, AJ, and QT except QT of clubs and mayybe QcTx. I'm at my g/f's...I don't have pokerstove here.

And also put in the flop. I don't see it on yours...I think you have the pre-flop equity there.

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12-22-2007 , 10:48 AM

#12

Eddi

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Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 6,296

Ok so that's a good example, the 30:70 was obviously wrong.

There is $56 in the pot, assuming 0 FE, we are putting $64 to win $160, so we only need to be good 40% of the time. Now I don't think you can narrow his range so much that you'll get worse than 40% equity and contrary to what you say I don't think we have 0 FE - even if it's like 5% it's fantastic.

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12-22-2007 , 10:51 AM

#13

Eddi

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Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 6,296

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lego05

And also put in the flop. I don't see it on yours...I think you have the pre-flop equity there.

The flop was there of course

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12-22-2007 , 11:01 AM

#14

Lego05

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Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 24,923

I downloaded PokerStove. This is what I got:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

50,490 games 0.438 secs 115,273 games/sec

Board: Kc Jc 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.170% 38.06% 00.11% 19218 54.00 { Ac8h }
Hand 1: 61.830% 61.72% 00.11% 31164 54.00 { AdAh, AdAs, AhAs, KdKh, KdKs, KhKs, JdJh, JdJs, JhJs, 2d2h, 2d2s, 2h2s, AdKd, AhKh, AsKs, KdQd, KhQh, KsQs, KdJd, KhJh, KsJs, QcTc, Tc9c, 9c8c, 8c7c, 7c6c, AdKh, AdKs, AhKd, AhKs, AsKd, AsKh, KdQc, KdQh, KdQs, KhQc, KhQd, KhQs, KsQc, KsQd, KsQh, KdJh, KdJs, KhJd, KhJs, KsJd, KsJh, QcTd, QcTh, QcTs, QdTc }

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12-22-2007 , 11:03 AM

#15

Eddi

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Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 6,296

Oh and one of the reasons I think there is a bit of FE here, is because a c/r on a monotone board is a super weak move imho - I think he does NOT want to see a turn card and is scared of clubs.

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12-22-2007 , 11:16 AM

#16

Lego05

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 24,923

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eddi

Oh and one of the reasons I think there is a bit of FE here, is because a c/r on a monotone board is a super weak move imho - I think he does NOT want to see a turn card and is scared of clubs.

I disagree....He's check raising here in order to committ himself to the pot. This is exactly what I would have done with a set and probably like AA and AK also.

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