PokerStars, Hold'em No Limit - $0.10/$0.25 - 6 players
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UTG: $35.60 (142 bb)
MP: $74.53 (298 bb)
CO: $50.50 (202 bb)
BU: $25.00 (100 bb)
SB: $28.23 (113 bb)
BB (Hero): $72.45 (290 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with A♥ J♦
1 fold, MP raises to $0.75, 3 players fold, Hero calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.60) 4♣ J♠ 6♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $0.77, Hero raises to $2.25, MP raises to $7.50, Hero calls $5.25

Turn: ($16.60) 6♠ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $12, Hero calls $12

River: ($40.60) 4♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $27, Hero ?

I'm not particularly eager to raise TPTK on the flop in deep stacks.

Fold on the river. I don't mind folding on the flop or turn.

do thes facts that he hasn't slowed down to flop pairing turns and rivers and all the draws bricked out matter? (JXc seems like a good triple barrel or some combo draws.)

when do you decide to get away from it?

what sways you to get away from it?

thanks,

regarding my flop xr, i was asking questions about his hand. any other thoughts here?

thanks again

Flop seems quite bad this deep. I'd probably just fold the turn and cut my losses on the mistake I made on the flop.

The main reason I want to get away from this is the opponent's bet/reraise.
his is a very value-heavy range, especially in deep stacks where players usually play even more cautiously.
Therefore, I believe that there will not be enough weak hands in the opponent's range for a profitable bluffcatching.

I don't know why you are check raising the flop, instead of check calling him down three streets. Is it to get value from draws?
I think when you get raised after check raising its rarely a bluff and you can expect to see him continue through to the river. I would usually fold the flop. If you have a read he's weak here though you could call turn and fold river since you look like Jx + but you see how he might try to fold those anyway if he were bluffing from the get go.

yea, as played fold. the flop raise is so strong, don´t believe there is enough bluffs there. fold turn also. flop call is ok, but facing this agression on later streets it´s fold.

i don't give much credence to a regular's cbet, so i xr to take the lead, not sure if / doubting that he will barrel off with worse and also to protect against getting outdrawn.

why does everyone prefer xc otf?

thanks,

No credence in his hand is out of place. He opens from MP with a reasonably strong range. He 4b on your big blind raise, making his range very strong. On these stakes, 4b with marginal hands are rare. Calculate your equity vs its range. This makes it clear that your flop raise is incorrect. In addition, you are deeply stacked and you can lose much more with a TPTK, which then clearly has less value.

Sometimes you win a hand like this but most of the times you loose a lot.

Begin with flatting AJo on the BB. Balance your flatting range by calling with some Ace broadway combo's vs early opens.

i did flat bb with ajo and flop was only 3bets.

just because we got 3bet doesn't make the xr incorrect.

what's the bottom of everyone's flop check raising range?

humans have a tendency to greedyness (nothing bad we need this but without awarness it can get us into trouble) i noticed this greedyness makes us to give away bigger sizing tells bigger the spr.
So flop already he sizes almost 50% wich is intresting alot of players especially in lower stakes use a 1/3 or smaller size and play a full range strategy so potential size tell here(in gto probably his size totaly fine).
For me it looks like more overpairs that size like this very strong hands like sets especially JJ are more likely to bet smaller to induce more x/r.
Turn i think when we consider greedyness factor it looks more like a overpair to me then a nutted hand because so much money still behind.
River also very unlikely super strong like already mentioned it would be very suprising to me if he would size Top set like this so he reps mostly quads or a overpair that want to go for thin value on river.
Normaly villain should arrive on river also with some trips because he would need to reraise flop with some setblockers so 65 67 etc to block your nutted hands but in reality i think this happens not frequent enough.
So on river his range is mostly 1-2 combos quads (44 is mostly folding pre) and a very unlikly combo of JJ (our j is also a great blocker) on the other side he has plenty of AA KK QQ that he can play like this vs your Jx.
Conclusion x/r river as played he would need to defend some frequency overpairs if this does not happen it should be easy + ev.

Flop xr is fine, but to Slyless' point we don't want to bloat the pot while deep with a hand that will rarely improve, so we might consider a xc with QJ-JTs, for example.

Fold vs the flop 3bet; if villain has bluffs they are 1/1,000 in your player pool.

One note: we prefer to xr wider on dry boards so that villain's continuing range is weaker (overcards with backdoor equity, for example). This flop has so many potential draws that villain's continuing range will often outdraw us postflop, which is a nightmare while we are playing deep.

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Sorry, I obviously didn't have my reading glasses on. I will not raise TPTK in this hand. Firstly because I don't think it is a +EV spot. You deprive your opponent of the opportunity to barrel with worse Jx. The action you get back is from nutted hands. And you have practically no redraw. I personally don't have a bottom for an Xraise because I try to play close to GTO but quickly adapt to the players and the player pool. I like to X-raise with a gutshot and redraw against better regulars. It's just how I play. No doubt it won't be the best way, but it won't be the worst either