Quote:
Originally Posted by simonpoker
its bad to value 3bet JJ here, you can call and your ahead if you bet here and he calls your behind.
I disagree. If you raise and he re-raises you, I'd put him on QQ+, AK. Make a decision on pot odds if you can continue. If you raise and he calls, I'd put him more on 77-TT (discounting JJ since you hold two), AJ+. You have fold equity.
So, pot is 5.5BB, you raise to 12. There's a 28% chance he has something that you're 65%+ to beat (i.e. Ax - x<J, SC, lower PP, junk), 2% chance that you're 35% against his range. I'd say he'll fold 5-10% of the time you re-raise. So the equity equation is roughly:
.05(5.5) + (.23)(.65)(25.5) + (.02)(.35)(25.5) - (.02)(.5)(12) - (.23)(.35)(25.5) - (.02)(.5)(.65)(25.5)
=
.28 + 3.81 + .18 - .12 - 2.05 - .17
= 1.93BB average win.
That's 5% of the time, he folds and you win a 5.5 BB pot. 23% of the time, he calls, and you win 25.5 BB 65% of that time, 2% of the time, he calls, you win 25.5BB 35% of the time, 2% of the time, he has a monster, re-raises 50% of the time, you lose 12BB, 23% of the time he calls, you win 25.5BB 35% of the time, and 2% of the time, he calls you with a monster 50% of the time, you lose 25.5 BB 65% of the time.
So, you're netting almost 2BB by raising, and folding to a shove, and seeing a flop when he calls. If he does anything BUT call or min-raise, you've got to be done with this hand, because of how shallow the stacks are. Otherwise, you're at the commitment level, and that's an ugly place to be with JJ when you're facing a range of QQ+,AK.