Hi (Again)

Can we check over my line here please?
I considered shoving river... Can we check and see if its ok to check the river for SD here?
With villains action on turn is it safe to assume he has a FD/nuts?

Cheers....

PokerStars - $0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 181.5 BB
SB: 125.5 BB
BB: 163 BB (VPIP: 16.00, PFR: 14.00, 3Bet Preflop: 13.64, Hands: 51)
UTG: 89 BB
MP: 122 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 23.81, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
CO: 100.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 5 6

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, SB calls 1.5 BB, BB calls 1 BB

Flop: (6 BB, 3 players) 4 8 T
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (6 BB, 3 players) 7
SB bets 3 BB, BB raises to 9.5 BB, Hero raises to 60 BB, fold, BB calls 50.5 BB

River: (129 BB, 2 players) 5
BB checks, Hero checks

Id fold pre but not an issue really as ranges differ. Checking back river is ok i think. Vs a fish id shove but a nitt likely isnt calling a river shove with worse

Fold pre

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I don't think you can say for certain that a nit isn't likely to call with worse. Nits may be tight players but that doesn't mean they are incapable of making reads. And the sample size we're dealing with is only 51 hands. Can't really make assumptions that someone is a bonafide nit based on 51 hands.

The 5 helps so few hands in this so called nits calling range on the turn. Given this villain just called a 50.5BB raise on the turn I think it would be hugely -ev play to check the river. They may be somewhat deep but the "nit" didn't 4bet on the turn which is a good sign he doesn't have one of the 4 combos of J9s. Vs all the set combos that are likely to play this way with the fact that the 5 only really helps villain if he made a horrible call on the turn I really think we should be betting this on the river.

I don't see how checking river can be -ev when we close the action.
I agree with betting river. It's 2nl and people overvalue their sets and 2 pairs.
Also fold pre and look up open raise charts.

Fold PF, don't make the turn 3-bet ridiculously large.

shove river, villain isn't calling your ridiculous turn raise with a flush draw

Checking will have a lower ev than betting therefore checking results in a loss of ev. That is what I should've said/meant.

fold pre

AP: I wouldn't shove river, but maybe I'm just nitty

fold pre..... u open way way way too wide if u have this trash in ur range

I don't mind the open. At 2NL players overfold their blinds and rarely 3bet so you can open as wide as you want as long as you have an edge postflop.

The turn raise is way too big though and you are folding out so many of the hands that you should be looking to get value from.

As played, I don't see any worse hands calling the river especially with 4 to a straight on the board now unless he is really bad. I checkback and take it to showdown.

Not opening pre when you've got 50 hands of BB playing as a nit seems bad to me.

I would say the turn raise is obscenely large but it got a call so what do I know?

from the BU are we not wanting to open these types of hands when it's likely that we pick up the blinds?

3x pre will get more folds. Even most nits will defend, especially when SB comes along, for 1 more BB.

2 main points and a disclaimer.

1) 50 hands isn't enough to determine that someone is a nit with those stats. I've had similar stats to those after 50 hands but my actual stats are closer to 23/21/10.

2) SB tendencies matter as well. If both SB and BB are known to be too tight, I agree with this open.

Disclaimer: My perspective may be skewed because when I played on 2NL BOL it was pretty fishy and they called too much. Maybe pokerstars population is different.

My experience hasn't been the same, the majority of nits don't expand their defending range enough to a 2bb open.

Of course 50 hands isn't enough to guarantee he's a nit, but we can be pretty certain he isn't playing 35/30 too. I'd open a little more than min too. But I really doubt it's going to turn out to be much of a mistake if one at all.

50 hands are not too much but still it's enough to say that villain is not probably the most fishy player in the world and called your oversized turn 3-bet with garbage.
I think a river bet will accomplish nothing here. If you bet small for thin value and get jammed on, you are definitely behind. If you shove yourself, you generally get called only when you're beat or when you chop.
So I don't mind a check back here as it will save you from a difficult spot if you get check raised.

I don't like raising 3x from the BTN myself , personally i like to 2.5x on the btn but 2x is perfectly reasonable i think. And as Bladesman87 says 51 hands is a perfectly workable size to start making some assumptions on villains game. What i would disregard for now is the 13% 3bet but vpip and pfr is starting to give us a good picture. Your going to want a minimum 200 hands before trying to draw any sort of conclusion on 3bets. You have obvious times where people are just clearly over aggressive in small samples with 3bets . But as a rule of thumb id say 200+ hands vs most villains before trying to make any assumptions on that stat.