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2NL Nitty River Fold 2NL Nitty River Fold

10-13-2017 , 05:34 PM
PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com

BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
Hero (SB): 122 BB
BB: 157.5 BB (VPIP: 60.00, PFR: 36.00, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 26)
UTG: 117.5 BB (VPIP: 19.62, PFR: 15.87, 3Bet Preflop: 5.18, Hands: 1,110)
CO: 101.5 BB (VPIP: 29.41, PFR: 10.59, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 88)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 3s As
fold, CO raises to 2.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 2 BB, BB calls 1.5 BB

Flop : (7.5 BB, 3 players) 9s 4s 7c
Hero checks, BB checks, CO checks

Turn : (7.5 BB, 3 players) 3h
Hero bets 4 BB, fold, CO calls 4 BB

River : (15.5 BB, 2 players) 3d
Hero bets 11 BB, CO raises to 29.5 BB, fold

CO wins 36 BB

I think before the river everything is relatively standard, save for maybe this is a better 3bet in the sb than call.

At the time on the river my thinking was primarily based on the fact that Villain had an aggression factor of .33 over 88 hands. So I'm figuring that he is only raising for value and I'm thinking he has a boat. Though given that he is 29/11 over 88 hands, probably only raising 99 pre of all hands that can give him a boat. he probably limps 44 or 77. It was a tough spot at the time but I didn't think he would bluff raise at all given his AF.

In hindsight now I don't like the fold, and I think he almost certainly had 1010-AA, likely AA or KK. I think it makes a lot of sense for him to raise these for value here as my sb limping range doesn't have much here other than sets. Though I don't suspect a 29/11 player to be thinking about my range. If I had've considered overpairs at the time I probably call.

Bad Fold?
2NL Nitty River Fold Quote
10-13-2017 , 05:52 PM
I think you are lighting money on fire if you're bet folding one of the best rivers in the deck. V could easily be value or bluff raising worse here IMO.
2NL Nitty River Fold Quote
10-13-2017 , 07:03 PM
That's strange for villain to show weakness on flop and turn and then show strength on the best river card for you. If villain had us beat, he should be cbetting this flop because it hits both our range and the BB range so hard.
I would be calling the raise on the river.
2NL Nitty River Fold Quote
10-13-2017 , 07:07 PM
Too much emphasis on stats and especially so over 88 hands. You lose to a flopped set and he's betting those on the flop or raising the turn 95% of the time.

Spoiler:
check turn
2NL Nitty River Fold Quote
10-13-2017 , 07:11 PM
Quote:
In hindsight now I don't like the fold, and I think he almost certainly had 1010-AA, likely AA or KK.
He should never have these given flop so I don't know if it's a good idea to decide these hands "make a lot of sense". The most likely hand for value is probably a chop that made a thin turn call imo.

Other than a chop he has to have some weird lol trap lines, and I'm not going to sit around waiting for boats to figure that out. These spazzy lines are bound to have some spew in them and our hand is too strong to fold.

Pre isn't good though so this is all academic.
2NL Nitty River Fold Quote
10-13-2017 , 07:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bladesman87
He should never have these given flop so I don't know if it's a good idea to decide these hands "make a lot of sense". The most likely hand for value is probably a chop that made a thin turn call imo.

Other than a chop he has to have some weird lol trap lines, and I'm not going to sit around waiting for boats to figure that out. These spazzy lines are bound to have some spew in them and our hand is too strong to fold.

Pre isn't good though so this is all academic.
Pre I should be folding or 3betting?
2NL Nitty River Fold Quote
10-13-2017 , 09:26 PM
River never a fold, u could 3bet pre.
2NL Nitty River Fold Quote
10-13-2017 , 10:22 PM
This is a hand that I have in my 3betting range here. If I've had a good string of hands at the table doing a lot of 3betting then I would fold preflop.
If I hadn't 3bet in a little while then I would definitely 3bet this hand preflop.
I don't think I would just call preflop out of the SB with this hand.
2NL Nitty River Fold Quote

      
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