PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $24.29 (VPIP: 22.38, PFR: 17.48, 3Bet Preflop: 9.43, Hands: 146)
Hero (SB): $28.35
BB: $32.11 (VPIP: 18.75, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)
UTG: $25.00 (VPIP: 17.62, PFR: 15.24, 3Bet Preflop: 2.53, Hands: 217)
MP: $36.61 (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
CO: $29.17 (VPIP: 34.04, PFR: 21.28, 3Bet Preflop: 10.53, Hands: 47)

Hero posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has A J

fold, fold, CO raises to $0.58, fold, Hero raises to $3.00, fold, CO raises to $6.70, Hero calls $3.70

Flop: ($13.65, 2 players) 5 T J
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: ($13.65, 2 players) T
Hero checks, CO bets $4.04, Hero raises to $21.65 and is all-in, CO calls $17.61

River: ($56.95, 2 players) 5

totally be accident i kind of played the hand the way solver would play it. Okay solver folds AJs preflop about 80% of the time and mixes in some leads on that flop and when checked some probes on the turn but if we do decide to call preflop and do decide to x flop and x turn and we are finally facing that sweet almost quarter pot bet we are supposed to pure Jam this combo for a total EV of close to 6bb.

personally i think i butchered this hand because i really do not believe people are 4betting enough CO vs SB being IP.

Your analysis is correct, 4-bets are gonna be way to value heavy most of the time at these stakes and OOP this really should be folded pre. I'm guessing the logic for the shove on the turn is you don't have enough equity to call and you have boat blockers, and you should have JJ and TT more then V here, so I actually think it's a pretty cool bluff. Definitely not something I would think of on my own.

What range did you give oop player? I give strong flatting range and bet sizes of 33% and 66%. Solver range donks for 66% otf and call raise.

I dont know what solver say, but villain can easy be xing whole range oft.

I do have enough equity to call but solver prefers the play that has more ev. Shove has about 2% more EV than call with this combo. in that spot calling isnt much of a thing because CO could realize all its equity with its bluff and play river perfect. CO should be having 4b bluffs like AQo/ KQo/ AJo type hands. these hands can bet on the turn and have a lot of equity vs AJ


.

Yeah villain is actually supposed to xback overpairs >50%

SB flatting range here is really narrow because we are mostly supposed to shove preflop. some JJ/TT/AA and some AQs, AJs, KQs , A5s … thats it.

I used only quarter pot sizing for the sim

That's fair, although in practice I doubt those 4-bet bluff type hands show up nearly as often as they should

that is what i assume is true though obviously dont know.... when i look at my database i can say population does 4b less than optimal. but i cannot filter for regs. and how balanced their 4b ranges are on average. too many recs who maybe 4b top 1-2% for value and have zero bluffs. (Villain was a reg)