Alright I'm posting this in Micro Stakes, Small Stakes and Middle Stakes. I have been trying to figure out what the optimal line for the flop is without considering metagame.
UltimateBet $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
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BTN: $60.64
SB: $14.28
Hero (BB): $25.69
UTG: $21.44
CO: $44.19
Pre Flop: Hero is BB with 9
8
1 fold, CO calls $0.25,
1 fold, SB calls $0.15, Hero checks
Flop: ($0.75) 5
A
6
(3 players)
SB checks,
Hero bets $0.75,
CO raises to $1.50, SB folds,
Hero raises to $5.25,
CO raises to $9, Hero
I've played with the villian for about an hour. He is relatively tight for a 25nl player, and does not seem very competent. He is bad at bet sizing, doesn't seem to pay attention to other players and will cold call raises to much. I've seen him minraise post flop once or twice, but I never got to see his hand. Many players at 25nl will minraise small bets postflop with absolute garbage. I am unsure if this player will do that.
My image is a loose aggresive, I'm sure I look like a donkey to the other players at the table.
My range for his min 4bet is a little sketchy since I haven't seen too many showdowns, but I'm guess he doesn't do this with draws anywhere near as much as he does this with made hands. I think he may limp AK preflop at least some of the time. I doubt he is going to fold anything he will min 4bet to a push, but stranger things have happened.
His possible range: AA,66-55,AK,A6-A5,65,4d3d,Kd6d
I included only two draws to pokerstove because I felt his range really is weighted that strongly towards made hands.
I calculated the equity of pushing against the above range. I assumed he never folds. However there is a reasonable chance that the range he 4bets with is wider, and I may have some level of folding equity.
It is practically 0ev. If my math is right, you need to win 41.222% of the time and you have 41.220% equity.
If I call the 4bet,
I think he will check behind if the flush completes, and will call a half pot bet on the river nearly always with two pair or better. A pot sized bet he may actually fold two pair to a 3 flush board. Possible but unlikely. He will probably fold a set on a 4 flush board. He will almost never bluff a 4 flush board with a hand that has any value. He will raise a flush on the river for certain if the board isn't paired, and may raise if the board is paired. He will always raise a full house.
I think he will stack off with two pair+ every time if my gutshot come in.
I also think he may be bad enough to bet size improperly on the turn. I think there is about a 5-10% chance he may check with a scared two pair, AK, draw and about a equal chance of facing a 3/4 potsized or bigger bet and a bet less than 3/4 of the pot.
And I haven't even analyzed just calling the minraise on the flop yet.
What is the optimal line for the flop? Please state detailed reasons.