Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players

MP1: $36.71
MP2: $25.25
Hero (CO): $48.96
BTN: $25.00
SB: $28.23
BB: $24.65
UTG: $41.64
UTG+1: $19.66
UTG+2: $29.32

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is CO with A Q
5 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, SB calls $0.65, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.75) Q 5 4 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.25, SB calls $1.25

Turn: ($4.25) 3 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3.10, SB raises to $7.75, Hero ??

Villain:



With the right stats, what to do turn and river?

Turn is a super easy b/f imo

Can you elaborate, please?

Thank you.

There are a tonne of worse hands that this guy could have and will call a bet with - flush draws, straight draws, weaker Qx hands and even JJ type hands from which we can get value. This is why we bet. This villain is passive (as denoted by his gap between VPIP and PFR and also his aggression frequency and AF) and so his calling range will be wider than his betting range which will, in turn, be wider than his raising or check raising range. His check-raising range will include 2 pair, sets and maybe straights. We know this because of his low c/r ott of 15% (a pocket pair will flop a set about 1 time in 8 or 12.5% just to give you an idea of how often he check raises) This is why we fold when raised. Hence why we bet/fold.

Sorry, but a guy who plays 33% ~ 42% of his hands in the BB, would not a weak range here?

He folds 50% of this range to CBet... and 15% of C/R is not high?

What I mean is, would be an error call turn and see his river play?

He has a weak range when he calls, but a strong range when he raises. An extreme example of this would be a villain who calls preflop with 100% of hands but only raises with KK+ - when he calls, he's very weak, but when he raises, he's very strong. =

15% is actually quite strong when you consider that that is 7.5% of his overall range more or less (which is 2 pair, sets and better hands). When he raises he's never doing it with a draw or a 1 pair hand.

Yes it is. I can tell you almost certainly his action on the river is going to be a bet of around $10-$20 (he could even shove the river - that's right!) - calling with the intention of folding on the river here is a mistake. Either fold ott or call now ott and otr - calling ott and folding otr is literally the worst play possible.

Thx for the lesson, Lx.

=)

No problem - I hope you fully understood what I'm getting at - if not feel free to pm me or anything mate

As a general rule with good one pair hands (tpgk or better) b/f is the way to go against fish and regs a good % if the time (of course there are exceptions like 3b pots etc, but in general, b/f is the way to go based on the reasoning above - most of their raising range crushes a 1 pair hand)