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25NL KK river play on double paired board 25NL KK river play on double paired board

12-23-2014 , 11:11 AM
Merge - $0.25 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: $9.63 (VPIP: 46.15, PFR: 1.28, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 80)
UTG+1: $23.59 (VPIP: 18.95, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 672)
Hero (MP): $26.34
MP+1: $29.29 (VPIP: 26.70, PFR: 10.23, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 178)
MP+2: $40.96 (VPIP: 40.44, PFR: 12.64, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 185)
CO: $13.56 (VPIP: 40.43, PFR: 10.64, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 48)
BTN: $12.82 (VPIP: 29.37, PFR: 8.73, 3Bet Preflop: 4.44, Hands: 126)
SB: $28.24 (VPIP: 27.11, PFR: 20.91, 3Bet Preflop: 7.56, Hands: 1,452)
BB: $28.87 (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 8.57, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 36)

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has K K

fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.85, fold, fold, CO calls $0.85, fold, fold, fold

Flop: ($2.05, 2 players) 9 Q T
Hero bets $1.53, CO calls $1.53

Turn: ($5.11, 2 players) 9
Hero bets $3.83, CO calls $3.83

River: ($12.77, 2 players) Q
Hero ?

Villain has AF of 2.2.

What's my best play here? Villain has $7.35 behind. Shoving seems too thin. Is check calling too optimistic (villain could have missed draws)? Or is check-folding here better?
25NL KK river play on double paired board Quote
12-24-2014 , 06:06 AM
I give PF Range of 22-QQ, 78s+ Q9o+ about 20% of hands - given his 40/10 5%3b stats over 48 hands, i dont think he does call with 40% of hands in this spot so reduced the range. Assumed he would raise AKo/KK+

Flop:
I think he continues with:

Although he has passive stats you could argue that some of his range raises the flop - his KJ or sets.

Turn:

Probably folds his A10, K10, but thats about it given the previous range.

River:
If you bet he folds the hands you beat. Either X/C or X/F Depending on if you think he bluffs river with enough missed draws getting (7.35 to win 20.12) ~2.7 to 1

I C/F because of Vil's passivity from preflop stats is all we can go on. I dont think hes going to pull trigger with 87s on this river, but may polarize his range to just Qx/bluffs and check back his 9's.
25NL KK river play on double paired board Quote

      
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