Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
HERO (133.7BBs)
CO (114.6BBs) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 1]
BTN (99.3BBs) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 1]
SB (231.6BBs) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 1]
BB (97.5BBs) [VPIP: 100% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 1]
UTG (11.2BBs) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 1]

Dealt to Hero: T T

UTG Folds, HERO Raises To 2.5BBs, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Calls 1.5BBs

Hero SPR on Flop: [17.73 effective]
Flop (5.4BBs): 7 8 3
BB Checks, HERO Bets 1.7BBs (Rem. Stack: 129.6BBs), BB Calls 1.7BBs (Rem. Stack: 93.4BBs)

Turn (8.7BBs): 7 8 3 J
BB Checks, HERO Bets 6.2BBs (Rem. Stack: 123.3BBs), BB Calls 6.2BBs (Rem. Stack: 87.1BBs)

River (21.2BBs): 7 8 3 J J
BB Checks

1) What's the worst hand you value bet on the river?
2) How weak do you perceive villains river range to be?

V doesn't 3bet or raise/flop turn so I give him very little credit for boats that aren't J8/J7 which is 2 combos total. I don't really ever expect to see T9 here either given his line. That means his range is a lot of 8x, 7x, 99, busted draws, and then Jx. If we start by giving him every AJ/KJ/QJ + J9s, J8s, J7s he has 28 combos of Jx. If we filter his flop calls to only include Jc then he is down to 22 combos. If we think he 3bets AJs/KJs/QJs half the time, we are down to 19 combos. I think we could probably shave off a few more combos if we wanted to, but its not hard to find 1 pair hands in his river range.

You can probably bet as low as K8 or A8?

Would go bigger flop but checking has a ton of merits and is probably better.

River is a standard bet imo. If you aren't betting this then you are only betting trips+ since he never has QQ.

Def bet... I'd even lean towards a slight overbet, as I think you're getting called by about the same hero calling range if you bet 1/3 - pot+ sizing, and having two of the best blockers is nice.

I only use 1/3 or check on all flops.

I guess I should have just posted my action, I did bet river for 1.5x pot.

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I think not betting large on flop is decisively -EV


i) BB likely fish, we'll get way too much value with our protection hands than we should

ii) too many bad turns we'll have to X. We're way ahead right now and it's time to max EV

iii) they won't XR enough. We need to overload our value range to compensate