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NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
HERO (115.5BBs)
BTN (98.6BBs) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 1]
SB (85.1BBs) [VPIP: 100% | PFR: 100% | AGG: 66.7% | Hands: 1]
BB (104.1BBs) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 1]
UTG (139.2BBs) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 1]
HJ (106.8BBs) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 1]

Dealt to Hero: K A

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, HERO Raises To 2.5BBs, BTN Folds, SB Raises To 7BBs, BB Folds, HERO Calls 4.5BBs

Hero SPR on Flop: [5.24 effective]
Flop (14.9BBs): T 4 7
SB Bets 7.1BBs (Rem. Stack: 71BBs), HERO Calls 7.1BBs (Rem. Stack: 101.4BBs)

Turn (29.2BBs): T 4 7 7
SB Bets 13.9BBs (Rem. Stack: 57.1BBs), HERO Calls 13.9BBs (Rem. Stack: 87.6BBs)

River (56.9BBs): T 4 7 7 8
SB Checks, HERO ??

The only thing I know about this gentleman is he looks fishy.

jam preflop vs the fish he will call light.

X back river.

I'd expect to win a lot here.

I called thinking fish would make more mistakes vs my calling range with hands like AJo/KT etc.

Yeah that is true but jam will be higher EV since they don't like to fold.

I'm confused about the graph. It should a tight 3 bet range SB vs CO but doesn't indicate a call freq vs shove.

It means he has a stronger than GTO range and he underfolds (37% vs GTO of 48%-58%).

All good reasons to shove preflop.

Maybe I'm still lost but that says he under folds to a 3bet, I would be 4bet jamming, not 3 betting.

Woops that's the wrong chart I need to fold 4bet. Hold on

My bad here is data.

I don't like 4b jamming AKo on fish who don't 3b much. I'd rather do it with JJ+ or something, and play postflop with everything else against them with a massive edge while they play face up.

That's where I landed as well.

We would need to do EV calculations to figure it out.

It's definitely an interesting spot.

I'll do some napkin math and then try to get some better data on it.

EV = (%W-$W)-(%L-$L)

Let's say when we get called we have 55% equity (remember we don't even need 50% equity to make our shove profitable).

EV (55%-170bb)-(45%-170) = 93.5bb - 76.5 = 17bb

Someone check the math on it.

So you think you are going to make more than 17bb in a 3bet pot vs a fish in one pot?

Woops need to add fold equity too so it's actually higher. TBJ is coming to the rescue

I don't think you're going to have 55%. I think you'll be lucky to have 45% when you get called.

He would need to call with something like this: 66+,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,AJo+,KJo+

This is basically what we need to figure out. The thing is our fold equity is higher than 15% because those 4bets are not going to be jams very often.

99+ and AQs/AKo/AKs is 43% before rake, and I think even that's generous. Cut out 99 and AQs and you're at 40%. I think that's the most reasonable number to use.

My DB has 93 hands where they

3b < 9bb out of the SB/BB and called a 4b jam

19 times they had QQ+
24 times they had JJ-22
7 times they had AK
43 times they had a random unpaired hand

OP you can check your own DB with these filters

Another reason why I don't like flatting as much is let's say we end up OTR with Ace high facing a triple barrel. They overbluff but they bluff with ~10% low pair/middle pair so it's not clear that calling is positive EV.

Also fish are emotional, if he lost his last few hands he will call lighter preflop vs a jam so I'd factor that into my decision as well.

If we put that range into equilab it comes out to way more than 45%. It would be over 50%. The times he has AQo/KQo and we are 70/30 will more than make up for the 45/55 type flips.

I would probably always 4b this to some kind of normal size. I just don't think jamming is the best option. Jamming is obviously not going to be bad or anything.

I like 4betting to a normal size with AA but AKo benefits more from fold equity.

All options are definitely EV+ but it's interesting to think about what the best option is.

This doesn't seem like a spot where I mind having low fold equity in a huge pot against a terrible player who can be manipulated to put in more money post flop with dominated and dead hands, and they're probably going to over fold most flops too.

Should be 1739 calls total. This is with the average 4-bet shoves card removal, so we'll get called by a different range with AKo

899 (51.7%) were TT+ AK, 206 (11.85%) 22-99, so it should be 634 (36.5%) hands we crush.

We're 40.4% against TT+ AK and 45.6% against 22-99. For the air I'll say 70.1% equity which is what we have vs AQs

(.517*.404)+(.1185*.456)+(.365*.701)=0.518769 or 51.9% equity when called.

Assuming 190bb pot on average we get 98.61bb back when they call, but we shoved for 92.5bb more so 6.11bb from calls

They folded 42% of the time, I'll assume there's 13bb in the pot on average (2.5bb open and 9.5bb 3-bet) so we get (.42*13)=5.46bb from folds

So EV of shove not counting the rake or above average blockers is around 11.57bb

If we flatted in this scenario the pot is 20bb and we lost 7bb calling the 3-bet. Assuming 65% equity we'd need 143% equity realization to flat which seems very high. BTN vs SB 3-bet in theory AKo has 59.3% equity and 113% equity realization

*It seems like the 2.5x-3x 3-bet calls off a bit stronger, it's either a stronger range or they feel less committed.