Should be 1739 calls total. This is with the average 4-bet shoves card removal, so we'll get called by a different range with AKo
899 (51.7%) were TT+ AK, 206 (11.85%) 22-99, so it should be 634 (36.5%) hands we crush.
We're 40.4% against TT+ AK and 45.6% against 22-99. For the air I'll say 70.1% equity which is what we have vs AQs
(.517*.404)+(.1185*.456)+(.365*.701)=0.518769 or
51.9% equity when called.
Assuming 190bb pot on average we get 98.61bb back when they call, but we shoved for 92.5bb more so
6.11bb from calls
They folded 42% of the time, I'll assume there's 13bb in the pot on average (2.5bb open and 9.5bb 3-bet) so we get (.42*13)=
5.46bb from folds
So
EV of shove not counting the rake or above average blockers is around 11.57bb
If we flatted in this scenario the pot is 20bb and we lost 7bb calling the 3-bet.
Assuming 65% equity we'd need 143% equity realization to flat which seems very high. BTN vs SB 3-bet in theory AKo has 59.3% equity and 113% equity realization
*It seems like the 2.5x-3x 3-bet calls off a bit stronger, it's either a stronger range or they feel less committed.
Last edited by TripleBerryJam; 04-23-2024 at 05:48 PM.