25nl How thick is our SDV?
04-23-2024
, 06:05 PM
Quote:
Should be 1739 calls total. This is with the average 4-bet shoves card removal, so we'll get called by a different range with AKo
899 (51.7%) were TT+ AK, 206 (11.85%) 22-99, so it should be 634 (36.5%) hands we crush.
We're 40.4% against TT+ AK and 45.6% against 22-99. For the air I'll say 70.1% equity which is what we have vs AQs
(.517*.404)+(.1185*.456)+(.365*.701)=0.518769 or 51.9% equity when called.
Assuming 190bb pot on average we get 98.61bb back when they call, but we shoved for 92.5bb more so 6.11bb from calls
They folded 42% of the time, I'll assume there's 13bb in the pot on average (2.5bb open and 9.5bb 3-bet) so we get (.42*13)=5.46bb from folds
So EV of shove not counting the rake or above average blockers is around 11.57bb
If we flatted in this scenario the pot is 20bb and we lost 7bb calling the 3-bet. Assuming 65% equity we'd need 143% equity realization to flat which seems very high. BTN vs SB 3-bet in theory AKo has 59.3% equity and 113% equity realization
*It seems like the 2.5x-3x 3-bet calls off a bit stronger, it's either a stronger range or they feel less committed.
Should be 1739 calls total. This is with the average 4-bet shoves card removal, so we'll get called by a different range with AKo
899 (51.7%) were TT+ AK, 206 (11.85%) 22-99, so it should be 634 (36.5%) hands we crush.
We're 40.4% against TT+ AK and 45.6% against 22-99. For the air I'll say 70.1% equity which is what we have vs AQs
(.517*.404)+(.1185*.456)+(.365*.701)=0.518769 or 51.9% equity when called.
Assuming 190bb pot on average we get 98.61bb back when they call, but we shoved for 92.5bb more so 6.11bb from calls
They folded 42% of the time, I'll assume there's 13bb in the pot on average (2.5bb open and 9.5bb 3-bet) so we get (.42*13)=5.46bb from folds
So EV of shove not counting the rake or above average blockers is around 11.57bb
If we flatted in this scenario the pot is 20bb and we lost 7bb calling the 3-bet. Assuming 65% equity we'd need 143% equity realization to flat which seems very high. BTN vs SB 3-bet in theory AKo has 59.3% equity and 113% equity realization
*It seems like the 2.5x-3x 3-bet calls off a bit stronger, it's either a stronger range or they feel less committed.
Sent from my SM-S906U using Tapatalk
04-23-2024
, 06:30 PM
Quote:
Should be 1739 calls total. This is with the average 4-bet shoves card removal, so we'll get called by a different range with AKo
899 (51.7%) were TT+ AK, 206 (11.85%) 22-99, so it should be 634 (36.5%) hands we crush.
We're 40.4% against TT+ AK and 45.6% against 22-99. For the air I'll say 70.1% equity which is what we have vs AQs
(.517*.404)+(.1185*.456)+(.365*.701)=0.518769 or 51.9% equity when called.
Assuming 190bb pot on average we get 98.61bb back when they call, but we shoved for 92.5bb more so 6.11bb from calls
They folded 42% of the time, I'll assume there's 13bb in the pot on average (2.5bb open and 9.5bb 3-bet) so we get (.42*13)=5.46bb from folds
So EV of shove not counting the rake or above average blockers is around 11.57bb
If we flatted in this scenario the pot is 20bb and we lost 7bb calling the 3-bet. Assuming 65% equity we'd need 143% equity realization to flat which seems very high. BTN vs SB 3-bet in theory AKo has 59.3% equity and 113% equity realization
*It seems like the 2.5x-3x 3-bet calls off a bit stronger, it's either a stronger range or they feel less committed.
Should be 1739 calls total. This is with the average 4-bet shoves card removal, so we'll get called by a different range with AKo
899 (51.7%) were TT+ AK, 206 (11.85%) 22-99, so it should be 634 (36.5%) hands we crush.
We're 40.4% against TT+ AK and 45.6% against 22-99. For the air I'll say 70.1% equity which is what we have vs AQs
(.517*.404)+(.1185*.456)+(.365*.701)=0.518769 or 51.9% equity when called.
Assuming 190bb pot on average we get 98.61bb back when they call, but we shoved for 92.5bb more so 6.11bb from calls
They folded 42% of the time, I'll assume there's 13bb in the pot on average (2.5bb open and 9.5bb 3-bet) so we get (.42*13)=5.46bb from folds
So EV of shove not counting the rake or above average blockers is around 11.57bb
If we flatted in this scenario the pot is 20bb and we lost 7bb calling the 3-bet. Assuming 65% equity we'd need 143% equity realization to flat which seems very high. BTN vs SB 3-bet in theory AKo has 59.3% equity and 113% equity realization
*It seems like the 2.5x-3x 3-bet calls off a bit stronger, it's either a stronger range or they feel less committed.
04-23-2024
, 09:04 PM
My old CFP data has 6.9% for SB3BETvsCO but I'm pretty sure simplelessons play's on Iggy like me.
I have 8.3%SB3BETvsCO.
The argument of them not having all that trash isn't entirely accurate. Even though they 3bet tighter that doesn't necessarily mean it is a stronger range. If you look at range composition they have weak hands like K9o/A4o sometimes and regs never do.
04-23-2024
, 10:18 PM
I have fish SB3Bet v CO at 7.9%
04-23-2024
, 11:11 PM
04-23-2024
, 11:43 PM
Thx for the data NG.
We need between 48%-49% equity vs his calling range to jam profitably. I'm looking at that 3bet range and I don't think hands like AQo/AQs/AJs/ATs/KQs are folding very often vs a jam.
Also him folding a hand like QJo is not a bad result as we still get to net 8bb and not pay rake.
What are your thought's on jamming preflop vs just calling the 3bet?
We need between 48%-49% equity vs his calling range to jam profitably. I'm looking at that 3bet range and I don't think hands like AQo/AQs/AJs/ATs/KQs are folding very often vs a jam.
Also him folding a hand like QJo is not a bad result as we still get to net 8bb and not pay rake.
What are your thought's on jamming preflop vs just calling the 3bet?
