Difficult. From the stats, both players do not look like fish so our ranges will reflect this.
UTG+2 has a pretty narrow range to 3bet jam over 2 players, so he has a set, 2pair or a made straight.
MP2 played this hand a little strangely. I think he would raise with sets and 2pairs after UTG+2 bets due to the drawy board. To just flat UTG+2's flop cbet and then call the shove with hero still to act means he's got a made straight or is on a strong draw.
So with these assumptions:
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
KQs,AJ,KK,QQ,TT | 44.52% | 141,788 | 69,998 |
Ad td,Td jd,AJ,J9 | 43.11% | 99,511 | 143,539 |
Jc 9c | 12.37% | 5,639 | 90,898 |
This is a fold. What about if we allow a wider MP2 range?
Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
---|
KQs, AJ, KK, QQ, TT | 49.94% | 399,649 | 112,795 |
Ad td, Td jd, AJ, J9, KQ, KT, QT, TT | 28.09% | 182,711 | 150,918 |
Jc 9c | 21.97% | 136,491 | 132,600 |
Better. We have invested 1/3 of our stack and are getting 4 to 1, so I guess we are priced in with this assumption.
So it comes down to what you think MP2 is doing here.