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25NL: Flopd str8 m-w vs reg and nit 25NL: Flopd str8 m-w vs reg and nit

03-09-2010 , 09:16 PM
UTG+1 is 9/7/3 over 500.
MP2 is 19/16/2 over 60.

Can I find a fold here?

UTG+1: $25.78
UTG+2: $30.56
MP1: $32.55
MP2: $29.39
Hero (CO): $26.99
BTN: $25.00
SB: $44.14
BB: $29.08
UTG: $26.96

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is CO with J 9
2 folds, UTG+2 raises to $0.85, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.85, Hero calls $0.85, 3 folds

Flop: ($2.90) K T Q (3 players)
UTG+2 bets $2, MP2 calls $2, Hero raises to $9, UTG+2 raises to $29.71 all in, MP2 calls $26.54 all in, Hero ?
25NL: Flopd str8 m-w vs reg and nit Quote
03-09-2010 , 09:32 PM
no. PFR is tight as hell, he has a set here way more often than AJ, idk if thats even in his EP range. MP2 can easily have 2pairs and sets here as well. there is one hand that beats you and a bunch of other hands you are ahead of.

you are getting close to 4:1 with the second nuts.
25NL: Flopd str8 m-w vs reg and nit Quote
03-09-2010 , 09:36 PM
Difficult. From the stats, both players do not look like fish so our ranges will reflect this.

UTG+2 has a pretty narrow range to 3bet jam over 2 players, so he has a set, 2pair or a made straight.

MP2 played this hand a little strangely. I think he would raise with sets and 2pairs after UTG+2 bets due to the drawy board. To just flat UTG+2's flop cbet and then call the shove with hero still to act means he's got a made straight or is on a strong draw.

So with these assumptions:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
390,999 trials (Exhaustive)
board: kd ts qd
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
KQs,AJ,KK,QQ,TT44.52% 141,78869,998
Ad td,Td jd,AJ,J943.11% 99,511143,539
Jc 9c12.37% 5,63990,898

This is a fold. What about if we allow a wider MP2 range?

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
905,709 trials (Exhaustive)
board: kd ts qd
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
KQs, AJ, KK, QQ, TT49.94% 399,649112,795
Ad td, Td jd, AJ, J9, KQ, KT, QT, TT28.09% 182,711150,918
Jc 9c21.97% 136,491132,600

Better. We have invested 1/3 of our stack and are getting 4 to 1, so I guess we are priced in with this assumption.

So it comes down to what you think MP2 is doing here.
25NL: Flopd str8 m-w vs reg and nit Quote
03-09-2010 , 09:43 PM
The preflop call is probably -EV.

This spot makes me puke because, while you're ahead right now more often than not, you're only very slightly ahead, and likely up against a set and a flush draw (probably a combo draw to a better straight to boot), meaning there's like 20 live outs to beat you and you have no redraw. That looks like pretty much the best case scenario.
25NL: Flopd str8 m-w vs reg and nit Quote
03-09-2010 , 09:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zeth
The preflop call is probably -EV.

This spot makes me puke because, while you're ahead right now more often than not, you're only very slightly ahead, and likely up against a set and a flush draw (probably a combo draw to a better straight to boot), meaning there's like 20 live outs to beat you and you have no redraw. That looks like pretty much the best case scenario.
ya after i messed around with stove on this i realized how gross of a spot it actually is. still a call tho with those odds. id expect to have about 25% equity at best 3 way tho.
25NL: Flopd str8 m-w vs reg and nit Quote
03-09-2010 , 09:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zeth
The preflop call is probably -EV.
I wondered about that. Care to elaborate? SG IP on two full stacks? What about 3b?
25NL: Flopd str8 m-w vs reg and nit Quote
03-09-2010 , 09:47 PM
Ninja Edit: Completely missed the MP2 call, but we have the 2nd nuts so i'm never folding.

+1 Call PF is bad.
25NL: Flopd str8 m-w vs reg and nit Quote
03-09-2010 , 09:48 PM
^ ya but stove how much equity you have vs ranges that both of these players are stacking with.
25NL: Flopd str8 m-w vs reg and nit Quote
03-09-2010 , 09:50 PM
tbh I'd rather squeeze than flat in that spot, but it's super villain dependent too.

'Full stack', sure, but 100BB isn't really THAT much. If you're 250BB deep and you're at least as good as they are, then it's probably +EV to flat J9s there. But with a one gapper I really don't know that you're going to flop big often enough to justify the 3.5BB investment, and when you do you won't always get paid off by a couple of tight guys. Plus, well, situations like this precise hand happen once in a while, where you flop god and get stacked.

It's not dramatically -EV if you know what you're doing, and not all terrible when it comes to exposing yourself to interesting postflop situations. But strictly speaking, I doubt it's profitable.
25NL: Flopd str8 m-w vs reg and nit Quote
03-09-2010 , 10:06 PM
Thanks for the help, guys.

Spoiler:

UTG+1: $25.78
UTG+2: $30.56
MP1: $32.55
MP2: $29.39
Hero (CO): $26.99
BTN: $25.00
SB: $44.14
BB: $29.08
UTG: $26.96

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is CO with J 9
2 folds, UTG+2 raises to $0.85, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.85, Hero calls $0.85, 3 folds

Flop: ($2.90) K T Q (3 players)
UTG+2 bets $2, MP2 calls $2, Hero raises to $9, UTG+2 raises to $29.71 all in, MP2 calls $26.54 all in, Hero calls $17.14 all in

Turn: ($86.12) 4 (3 players - 3 are all in)

River: ($86.12) K (3 players - 3 are all in)

Final Pot: $86.12
UTG+2 shows Th Td (a full house, Tens full of Kings)
MP2 shows Jd Ad (a flush, Ace high)
Hero shows Jc 9c (a straight, King high)
UTG+2 wins $4.80
UTG+2 wins $78.32
(Rake: $3.00)

Excellent analyses, give yourselves pats on the back.


25NL: Flopd str8 m-w vs reg and nit Quote
03-09-2010 , 10:33 PM
Glad to help OP.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Valkyrie87
Ninja Edit: Completely missed the MP2 call, but we have the 2nd nuts so i'm never folding.

+1 Call PF is bad.
Quote:
Originally Posted by OoLethaLoO
^ ya but stove how much equity you have vs ranges that both of these players are stacking with.
The problem with hero's hand is that we have few outs to improve, whilst our opponents range have draws or redraws to 20+ outs as Zeth pointed out. This is the same concept in PLO where the near nuts on the flop can still be an underdog to a monster drawing hand. So in this hand, even though we have the 2nd nuts, this is why I suspect the equity calculation in my last post shows we have only 12% equity. At ~100BB, this is a super tough spot due to the very inciting pot odds offered.
25NL: Flopd str8 m-w vs reg and nit Quote
03-09-2010 , 10:49 PM
UTG2 Never has AJ in his range, MP2 does but he also has sets, 2P, big draws etc, no way this is a +ev fold.

If they both have sets we are a sick favourite.
25NL: Flopd str8 m-w vs reg and nit Quote
03-09-2010 , 10:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Valkyrie87
UTG2 Never has AJ in his range, MP2 does but he also has sets, 2P, big draws etc, no way this is a +ev fold.

If they both have sets we are a sick favourite.
MP2 does not have a set. The fact that he flatted UTG+2's bet before we hit the crazy switch is a HUGE tell that he has a flush draw and/or AJ. Believing otherwise is symptomatic of being pissed off that you flopped a straight and found yourself in a spot where you ought to muck it.
25NL: Flopd str8 m-w vs reg and nit Quote

      
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