Hey guys.
What do you think about this hand. Villain is 18/13 1.3 agg. after ~50 hands. he was opening from the EP - 45 %, thats why i called him.
what do u think about the flop? its fold then he reraise me? or its fine to go all in.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) ($26.38)
BB ($48.27)
UTG ($51.13)
MP ($25.67)
Button ($26.30)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J, K
UTG bets $0.75, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.65, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.75) K, 10, J (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $1, Hero raises to $3, UTG raises to $9, Hero raises to $25.63 (All-In), UTG calls $16.63

Turn: ($53.01) A (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($53.01) 4 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $53.01 | Rake: $2.65

im folding pre

I'd consider 3-betting pre as a semi-bluff if you think he's opening wide UTG. I'd say your sample size is too small to say this for sure however.

We hold blockers to AK/KK/JJ so he's less likely to 4-bet us and KJs can flop decent equity if called.

We're concerned about a set (really only TT, as we hold a K and a J), or AQ. If there's a chance he does this with AA/AK or even QQ, then I think getting it in here is fine.

looks fine, its one of those spots where its close (ish) when you get called so dont be suprised if he has a set from time to time but you cant fold

+1 to folding pre aswell vs this villain utg, you dont have the sample size yet to look at his open by position. problably ok to assume a villain with those stats will have at least some vaugee idea about positional play.

if your a still a non believer kjs has about 41% equity vs 13% of hands, factor in hes basically unknown, your oop and you dont have the initiative.... you aren't going to profit by calling here.

o_O

So he's like not opening from the other spots at all then in order to average out to 13% PFR? Or just wtf is going on here?

^small sample

edit: i guess i should add +1 to fold pre, PFR/VPIP by position is going to take quite a bit more than 50 hands to converge

When he bets/3b I think you are flipping at best, and usually crushed. Given which cards have the diamonds, he really can't have many flush draws and the few that he can have are combo draws and all of his straight outs are clean and only one flush card isn't.

I assume he's always value shoving here (with made or big equity hands).

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 66.765% 66.37% 00.40% 61366047 367707.50 { TT+, AQs+, Ad9d, KhQh, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 33.235% 32.84% 00.40% 30362954 367707.50 { KcJc }

If you even tighten his shoving range slightly you are ****ed.

You are five handed, so I could be missing a few more hands, but all of them should be value hands or big equity hands.

i'd fold pre also.

there are a lot of possible combos which crush you, and every hand that you beat will likely fold to your c/r, so i really don't like this line.

why not call flop and reevaluate? without filling up, i would not be confident to win this hand.

You forgot to include the board in your simulation. Correct equity is 41,49%. Still not great, and probably his range isn't even that wide.

So you can't really stack off here, which means raising is bad. The problem is that most turn cards won't really help you since AQ is such a big part of his range.

So check/call flop & evaluate; don't be afraid to fold if the board develops badly and/or he doesn't slow down.

The bad decision was probably preflop, as others have said.

I think you should fold the flop to the 4b vs rather passive nit. The EP raise is not relevant.. I can not count more than 1 hand that is not ahead of you but still has plenty of equity to win.

thx for your comments guys!

Good points.

i'd rather donk, and i don't like c/r at all, i think its pretty spewy

its a classic case of unstable equity where i think our aim should be to control the potsize and check/decide alot