Think everything is standard until the river. I thought it was interesting because V did not raise at any point in hand, which discounts him having a flush some. The Q brings in K10 and QJ, both of which are in V range. Otherwise, V could be turning something with a spade into a bluff, and the Q is a nice card for V to do it. Need to be right here ~1/4 times ... are you calling? In 10NL I don't think V finds enough bluffs ... not sure about 25NL.

Ignition - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 106 BB
Hero (CO): 142.36 BB
BTN: 146.56 BB
SB: 95.88 BB
BB: 307.16 BB
UTG: 108.52 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K A

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (7.4 BB, 2 players) J 2 A
Hero bets 3.52 BB, BTN calls 3.52 BB

Turn: (14.44 BB, 2 players) 5
Hero bets 6.88 BB, BTN calls 6.88 BB

River: (28.2 BB, 2 players) Q
Hero bets 8 BB, BTN raises to 26.4 BB, Hero ???

I would bet bigger on the turn, your hand is very strong and you can get calls from hands you crush (draws with Qs, Ts, Ax...).

On the river I don't know what bluff they have. Maybe QT or KQ with a spade. River raises are rarely bluffs I think at those stakes...

It's probably a fold.

I don't like your sizing scheme, seems less than optimal.

Any reads on Villain.
Ignition player profile differs according to time and day. What time and day did you play this hand.

I would bet smaller on the flop. Overbet on the turn and 2/3 on the river.

Why overbet the turn?

@OP I don't like block betting river with this combo. There's plenty of value to be had from all the pair+fd in villains range. It's pretty hard for villain to have anything here. SRP and didn't raise flop or turn. We block his nut flushes that might trap and the price is pretty good, I'm calling as played.

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I am setting up for a river jam on any spade and also get more value from other draws and one pair hands. At this stake and site they do call these bets with a lot of hands that shouldn't have been there or should be folding.

I like your analysis btw.

With the Ks, I'm not ob'ing ott

That calc won't incorporate the net EV loss of an incorrect block that sets up the decision itself if the block is no good (not saying it is, but suspect it might not be if we don't bet/fold all one pair combos).


Fold AP. C-C-R would look strong on any board let alone triple broadway mono straight bonanza vs a bingo range.

Qh has to be one of the worst rivers for our hand as it completes QsJx and AQ. Villain's bluffs will have to come from pairs with spade. AXo is going to be a low frequency cold call pre and players turning PP into bluffs on this scary board is not going to be high frequency. I change my mind, I think we x/f river and expect to see QJ and AQ pretty often when V finds a bet/raise on this river.

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Bet more on turn. As played X/F river.

As played I think you need to know he has like AQ+ here and fold. Betting the turn bigger is better too for more value.