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2-pair, bet-fold OTR? 2-pair, bet-fold OTR?

01-21-2013 , 04:43 PM
villain seemed passive, but pretty aggressive OTR,
he had 1 AF overall, but 4 AF OTR and 50 AFq OTR, 0% raise flop and 0% raise turn,

he was 16/12, 4% 3-bet, 20% re-steal
40% Fold to flop cbet, 0% fold to turn cbet and 33 fold to river cbet over 600 hands, he had 28% WTSD and 51% WWSF(which could mean that he would float and bluff me sometimes)

so i thought that he was likely to 3-bet AK/KK/AA/QQ easily pre-flop against me
i didn't find a hand that he could beat me since he called pre(unless KQ and AT),

is it ok to bet-fold here or bet-call?
i called because his river AF was so huge, and since his flop and turn AF was low, he could float me a lot, even double-floating and shoving me OTR.
also board had a lot of draws, he could have a busted draw often.

is check-calling the river better than bet-call?

PokerStars - $0.10 NL ZOOM - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $5.54
SB: $23.21
BB: $6.23
UTG: $5.32
UTG+1: $9.84
UTG+2: $16.19
Hero (MP): $10.00
MP+1: $23.05
CO: $13.36

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has K J

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.30, fold, CO calls $0.30, fold, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.75, 2 players) J K Q
Hero bets $0.50, CO calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.75, 2 players) 2
Hero bets $1.20, CO calls $1.20

River: ($4.15, 2 players) 6
Hero bets $3.00, CO raises to $11.36 and is all-in, Hero calls $5.00 and is all-in
2-pair, bet-fold OTR? Quote
01-21-2013 , 05:00 PM
I would check call that river, so many missed draws. As played when he shoves.... hmmm... do you think many villains at 10NL zoom are capable of shoving that kind of board facing bets on all 3 streets as a bluff? I doubt it. As played it seems a lot to me like AT/T9, I think all sets will be raising on that board.
2-pair, bet-fold OTR? Quote
01-21-2013 , 05:21 PM
b/f small
2-pair, bet-fold OTR? Quote
01-22-2013 , 03:17 AM
for you to call that river, villain has to show you the capability to bluff
most regs(i assume he is) dont know how to bluff at the river

he took the most non-standard line vs you but nevertheless it's a hand that takes you to valuetown

let's start taking ranges of villain into consideration
his hand range is composed of {910s, 10As, KQs, KJs, JQs, JJ and of course bluffs}
against most villain, i would assign a very small percentage for the bluffs range
in order for you to assign super high bluff % in his range, villain has to show you that he's capable first before making that assumptions
regs nearly never bluff river, they just play their standard robotic poker


Quote:
Originally Posted by Rapidesh123
he had 28% WTSD and 51% WWSF(which could mean that he would float and bluff me sometimes)
um....that's a bad way to intrepret those numbers
high wtsd% - often means he's a fish and likes to call
low wtsd% - often means he's super nitty and likes to fold to aggression
51%wwsf - means he only wins half the time at showdown

combine those 2 together doesn't mean he floated you and is bluffing you now
it means, he's more likely to go to showdown with weaker hands when he's calling you down all 3 streets
aka a station
a station nearly never bluffs

regs at 10 nl are usually very passive, nitty or fishy
it's rare to find them aggro, rarer to find them getting super aggro on river with a bluff

im sorry bro, but you're clearly thinking too much
yes, villain took a non-standard approach becoz it's a super wet board
2-pair, bet-fold OTR? Quote
01-22-2013 , 04:17 AM
i would be betting turn bigger,
bet rivet 1/2 if he likes to call he will but there.s not much you can beat when he shoves.
2-pair, bet-fold OTR? Quote
01-22-2013 , 05:31 AM
4af otr could mean double float and shove, but could also mean he always slowplays nuts/shoves otr and generally likes to bet rivers.

Hands that are beating you: JJ, QQ, AT, 9T, KQ.
Hands you beat: bluffs, one pair hands like AK, AA?

I think you're overthinking it. I'd bet/fold.
2-pair, bet-fold OTR? Quote
01-22-2013 , 11:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dangomango
51%wwsf - means he only wins half the time at showdown
...
im sorry bro, but you're clearly thinking too much
yes, villain took a non-standard approach becoz it's a super wet board
sorry bro, you talk too much.

WWSF = won when saw flop
And yeah, 51% over 600hands is very clear sign that reg is certainly capable of bluff, I'd even say bluff happy . . . combined with the fact he likes to raise only otr you can assign a lot of bluffs to his range.

Considering all this, Rapid - had you actually seen him shove otr as a bluff? As played it's easy call (lolpotodds).
C/c otr seems better, he won't call much with worse anyway (ok, QJ) and I don't think he shoves on us that lightly, so let him bluff and check to him.

edit:
OH ****
Quote:
regs at 10 nl are usually very passive, nitty or fishy
it's rare to find them aggro, rarer to find them getting super aggro on river with a bluff
when was the last time you played at 10NL?

Last edited by Tev; 01-22-2013 at 11:13 AM.
2-pair, bet-fold OTR? Quote

      
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