Villain is sort of spazzy, he 3bet me a lot earlier in the session on but has toned down since then. An orbit or so ago he saw me show down a float with overs in a 3bet pot and the very last hand I barreled Q682 rainbow and took it down, I was EP that hand. Overall he is running 22/17 with 8% 3bet. I assume if he is calling turn with a worse hand I should be shoving river for value but Im not sure what other choice I have, I really dont want to check/decide on end even tho he probably checks back all his marginal hands and almost always has showdown value.


Full Tilt Poker $2/$4 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: $627.35
Hero (UTG): $475.50
MP: $594.10
CO: $400.00
BTN: $1257.60
SB: $400.00

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is UTG with J J
Hero raises to $14, MP calls $14, 1 fold, BTN calls $14, 1 fold, BB calls $10

Flop: ($58.00) 5 3 8 (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $42, MP calls $42, BTN folds, BB folds

Turn: ($142.00) K (2 players)
Hero bets $112, MP calls $112

River: ($366.00) A (2 players)
Hero requests TIME, Hero bets $307.50 all in

I definitely think this is too whin, especially with the backdoorhearts coming in. Just cf.

Dude what are you doing. You're repping inf times stronger than you are. You are getting called by worse 0% of the time.

OH?

yeah your bet to get called by worse (ie to look like a bluff) is most like less +EV than c/f'ing would be. You just aren't getting looked up by enough air here to make it more profitable than checking and taking it down against the vast majority of his range.

turn bet is too thin. gl getting him of his set/76hh/87hh/98hh on the river

Wayyy too thin.

???

how is a turn bet not super standard?

given the action (hero bet into 3 people on the flop), what do you expect him to call with on the river? he might muck TT- on turn, will almost always muck those hands on the river, and is never showing up here with Kx or Ax by river. given he's almost never calling worse, you're hoping he folds out sets or better because that's really all that's left in his range.

bc you bet into 3 ppl on flop. he called next to act. you bet a king turn. what do you think you're getting value from?

I never said he should bet the river, I questioned what you were trying to say in your post because you said his turn bet was too thin, which isn't the question OP asked anyway. Then instead of mentioning why the turn bet was too thin, you followed it up by saying OP would be turning his hand into a bluff on the river and that Villian's range by the river is nutted hands, which also wasn't what OP was trying to accomplish. I just don't understand anything that you were trying to say. You realize he is asking if he should be valuebetting 3 streets?

Because he probably expects you to be betting that turn with any two cards.

turn is absolutely a bet, river is absolutely a c/f.

I'd just check/fold. The river makes the backdoor flush, ace rag two pair, or may just save you from paying off the villians set. Any hand that you could beat on the river, is likely also scared off by the Ace, therefore they check. You basically have no value in betting.

i admit my response was jumbled and i should have included the reason i think he should check the turn with his hand.

as for the river, i explained it. he doesn't have many worse hands in his range, and the ones that he does are folding >90%. so his river bet is a bluff. problem is none of the hands he's bluffing are folding.

i agree he expects hero to follow up on the turn a good % of time with air he bets the flop with. only problem is that isn't a very wide range. one of the few hands i can imagine hero semi-bluffing flop with is AK which just got there. other hands he def continues with on the turn are bdfd hands he decided to bet on flop, and a few other air hands. i can't imagine villain thinking TT- is going to be a profitable turn call.

So by your logic, he shouldn't be betting Kx for value on the turn either.

depends how many bluffs you have in your turn range, but no, i would not.

this.

wow, too thin imo

my exact thought when i read the post.
for thin desicions a whole lot of reads needed, starting with your raising range utg.
i really like your line though, you gonna blow his mind.

so some people shove here w JJ and actually WANT to get called
betting river is clearly a stupid bluff ...c/f
if you are dying to hero it up you can c/c hoping he is turning all his lower PP and 67o to bluffs.

i was going to say you could bet here on the turn but you just can't valuebet flop/turn/river w JJ when its 4way to the flop and you raised UTG so turn has to a be check aswell.

lol wow 333 would be a thin bet here...

Turn is fine. River is just spewing money.

Im really surprised most of you think Im up against better so often. There are hardly any 2 pairs in his range and sets raise some portion of the time before (even tho they shouldnt). Not really worried about a BF flush but def not impossible.

He folded after tanking river for a bit. I really thought it was a spot I was ahead often enough to try and get him to level into calling with our history.

its not that we think his range has better so often, its that we think his calling range pretty much has you crushed. Yes the turn and river rolled off hands that you would be expected to barrel a lot, but they are also hands that are very often going to turn your air into a made value hand. And if you got to the river with AQ would you not bet it for value? also any BD flushes that you are barreling got there, so he can't even give you a whiffed draw at that point.

the point is that if he has worse he's almost never calling after that series of cards rolled off. but if he happend to float with a BD flush draw, two pair with Axs, or slowplayed a set you just value cut the **** out of yourself.

it doesn't matter what his range is for your river bet, it only matters what his calling range is. and it def does not tilt in favor of a bet imo.

hey soldier, wot u do on turn?