So true, but sometimes I feel the irritation from that seat when I btn raise their UTG limp a lot. lol... gotta the loose passives.

Very true post SugarNut, I agree that we have to put ourselves in marginal positions if we want to develop our game, we can't keep on playing fat value ranges and valuetowning forever (if we want to move up that is).

I wanna ask you a question though, about when you first start opening your range and start putting yourself in marginal situations. My experience with this that it's huge variance and breakeven at first. Is this normal?

This is my experience and it's so frustrating. It makes it tempting to just go grind for fat value (ie tight range etc).

Another question. How much tables do you recommend when first starting out with this "marginality exposure method"?

Like I said before, you will make mistakes. You will run into trouble. Poker is not an easy game and in my experience in today's games, it's the guys who put in the effort to actually get better who will be winners eventually. You'll have to get the math down. You'll have to make your own calculations on your own hands. Don't expect to get spoonfed by someone and that that is gonna make you actually a better player.

My advice for any "set ranges" player would be to keep playing your set ranges for now from all positions BUT the button. That way you assure yourself of one key thing each and every time you're in there with some "junk": POSITION!
Marginal spots aren't as easy to play as is valuetowning top set vs a calling station. So having position is key when you don't have too much experience. Position will be key later also when you start widening your ranges from other positions if the situation warrants it, but as you progress you will get better at assessing your chances of ending up in position. Even if you don't end up heads up in position (HULA as Tommy Angelo calls it) you will have the nessecary experience to play these spots.

Work on your handreading. Have a reason for EVERYTHING you do at the table. When you bet, think about if you want to get better to fold or worse to call. Then think about WHAT better hands could fold and WHAT worse hands could call. Then think about which one of these hands are actually possible for villain to have in that spot... etc

Question EVERYTHING you read about poker. Start with this thread. Don't assume that just because someone posts something on a forum he therefor must be right. It is absolutely imperative that you think for yourself about your game. No forum post, training video or even coach can do that for you.

If you do all that....

... you'll still **** up at first

You can't learn if you don't make mistakes but the more mistakes you make, recognize and then eliminate from your game, the better you're gonna get and the higher your winrate is gonna be.

One final note about variance. Don't be fooled by that term. EVERYTHING in poker is variance. In fact everything in probability is variance. If you flip a coin with a buddy for $1 your EV for each flip is gonna be $0.50. Yet in each flip you either lose or win $1. You will NEVER get your exact expected value out of a bet unless you put the money in with 100% equity.

The reason why people are afraid to play a "high variance" game is because their winrates are usually small. Hence they play a "low variance" game which isn't exploiting every available edge. Hence their winrates are gonna remain small. Hence big suckouts hurt even more. Hence their "low variance" game is actually a "very high variance" game as compared to a style that tries to exploit thinner edges all the time.

Think about it:

Say you're a 5 ptbb/100 winner so after 10,000 hands you've made exactly 10 buy ins. Now you get in AA vs KK 200BB deep and the guy flops a K on you. Now your profit is only 8 buy ins and your winrate decreased by 20% down to 4 ptbb/100 due to "variance"

Now say a 2 ptbb/100 winner (up 4 buy ins after 10,00 hands) suffers the very same thing. His winrate now decreased by 50% (2 buy ins up after 10,000 hands or 1 ptbb/100)

That's a 30% difference in decrease of winrate that the "low variance" player suffers due to the very same suckout.

Wow, long post again.

Hope it helps.

Sugar Nut

nice post

nice post(s).

i have been trying this for a while but my red line is appalling, any tips or links to tips?

I always advice players that ask how they can improve their non SD WINNINGS to screw that and instead work on LOSING LESS in non SD FIRST.

One way to work on decreasing non SD losses (and there's numerous others aswell) would be to look at your cbetting game:
A lot of ppl seem to think that positive red line players are sick bluffers and whatnot. Now while bluffing is a part of the whole red line thing, it's by far not the only aspect and (so I believe) not the most important one.
Lots of players suffer from the cbet flop then c/f turn syndrome a lot. Now the "sick bluffer" way to combat that is to double/triple barrel like a monkey. The "try to lose less in non SD" way would simply be to cbet less. (I'm not saying that cbet flop c/f turn isn't a line you should take sometimes btw)

Again, and I'm gonna say this right away, I WILL NOT answer any "what would be an ideal cbet% stat in uNL/SSNL" questions, because I simply don't give a ****. Say your cbet% is 95% and someone tells you that that's too high. Now you want to work on that and cbet less. You still however have no clue WHEN it is good/bad to cbet and, most importantly, WHY?

Improve Your Game And Your Red Line Will Follow!

ok i get ya, but any links or articles or vids you would recommend on understanding textures to cbet or flops to cbet, double etc

WOW. Incredible post/thread. I've been thinking about these things for two months now. I was a losing player for a while, then became a break even player because of the things discussed in this post with regards to low variance play, aka nit style. That basically sums up my first quarter, +10BI, then a 5-7 BI DS.

I've since opened up a lot (for me), going from 8/7ish to 17/15ish,(and climbing) learned to stick my $$$ in thin, bet scare cards, c-bet more, open more hands OTB, and just recently started to squeeze a lot more. These things are very important to your win rate, and will help you get paid off on your great hands.

As far as 3bet pots go, most players play their hands face up. AA-TT and sets want to get it in on the flop on a 962r board, over cards want to c/c or c/f.

NL25-50 players would do well to take a couple of BI's down to nl10 to work on opening up and becoming more aggressive, finding spots to vb thin, and betting scare cards. They don't fold too often, but the experience is invaluable if you can learn to do it correctly and apply what you've learned to your games.

Hi Sugar, I like your post. What you advocate is often very effective. It comes with high variance so bank roll management is essential for this to be successful.

What you describe is one stage of a poker players style progression. I think most players move along a proscribed path based on their study of poker. Loosely I think it is kinda like this:

1. Loose Passive fish
2. Loose Aggressive fish
3. Nit
4. Tight Aggressive
5. Good Loose Aggressive

You have described the Tight Aggressive style advocated by 2+2.

I think this is just the start of being a winning player. Along the way we learn about bankroll management and dealing with variance. First stage is preflop starting hand selection, and flop play. Then playing later streets for profitability. Finally advancing to deep stack play, HU play, and game theory.

I swing from playing Nit to Tag to Slag depending on the table and how tilty I may be feeling.

I think the most important thing to do when u sit down at the table is identify your target for the session... hopefully they are on your right....

* a loose passive fish.... best strategy... isolate and value bet each street.
* a maniac fish .... mix of tag/nit... let them dictate the action and when u have a hand focus on getting enough of your stack in the middle on each street so that when you go all in on river it is less than the Pot
* reg tag... better to just move tables.. but if you insist: DECEPTION IS MORE IMPORTANT HERE.... balance your raising and calling range... (i.e. raise and reraise with connectors, call with monsters). Regs play preflop and flop well but the weaker ones are exploitable on later streets (this is what I am trying to focus on right now)

ok written too much.. anyway well done... you're on the road to longterm profitability

LOL

Yeah right Sugar Nut.

See guys? That's what I mean when I say "question everything you read about poker"

Our EV in above case is $0 obviously The point however still applies.

It's all about ranges. Let's start with an easy example: A TAG calls your MP raise from the BTN. Lets say he's one of these "set ranges" players.
What do you think his calling range there on the BTN vs your MP raise is? Enter that into stove. Now enter a hand that you opened from MP into stove as your hand and see how your showdown equity is on different flop textures vs his calling range. Factor in the fact that he has position and could float you etc. It's on you to do that work.

However, to answer your question: If you want to take the mathematical approach (and also to not only plug the site I make vids for) I HIGHLY recommend the "Prefessor Plotkin" series on deucescracked. In this series Josh does a fantastic job at mathematically analyzing different flop textures with different hands vs different ranges.

I thought the first post was solid but this one is simply gold. Brilliant, brilliant post. So many great aspects of the game covered here. If anybody really wants to improve at poker you should just put these things into practice. I took a break from poker for a couple of months at the start of the year and through doing this was able to change from an average grinder (slight winner) to now wondering how i was ever that bad. You basically just summed up every step involved in changing your game and improving. Awesome post.

This is gold...

Excelent post, this is what im doing right now. I look forward for more quality advices like this. Thank you.

Man I dont know how many times I read a poast like this and say "Ya Im gunna do this!". I do it for a while, win good then go back on auto pilot and add 2 more tables. I think I will sign with GS just to see your vids. Tell GS you are bringing in the $$ for them without even plugging them

very niiice

bump for nice post

@Sugar Nut: You should totally Edit and c/p or link post 78 into the first post. SO much good stuff here.

I just started focusing on a single table, partly due to smarter bankroll management and partly to get better at really reading who I'm playing. I'm always stumbling with what to note, and one great thing you mention is "what will people call a 3-bet with?"

Awesome.

FWIW just signed up at Grinders School and Sugarnutz vids are awesome.

Thanks a lot sugar for that awesome posts. Just switched from SNGs to cash and that was really helpfull.

Just a short question: Do you isoraise from any position?

Cause I just had a huge fish immediatly to my right, he limped like 70% and always called when he got raised. I already raised him like 10times and made some nice profit. So he limped again when he was UTG, I picked up QJs and wondered if I should isoraise or pass this cause there are so many ppl behind and they should already have spotted that I isoraise him with a huge range.

As I've said before, there is no "cookie cutter" 100% correct preflop style. A lot depends on how comfortable you are postflop. I myself would prolly iso here 100% of the time, but that doesn't mean that you should. Only you can answer that question.

As for "other players will notice that you constantly iso a player": Well pretty much the whole point of this thread is that most of your opponents are "set ranges" players and neither will they notice, nor do something about it (most of them, that is)

I like this post. However, there is a breed of fish that if you isolate and squeeze you are going to have problems when there are more than one or two at the table. That is the 40/20 decent LAG. They play loose post flop and a bit tighter postflop. Some are tilting towards being calling stations. These guys will flat your squeeze and often invite others into your squeezed pots. Really complicates things and has messed with my head on a number of occasions. They will also screw with your iso raises. You better be competent post flop. Or just find another table

OP great post!