That's fair.

I don't really agree with the other part, I know that players now are much better players than before but I don't think it is accurate to make plays based on how balanced players are.

Saulo did a huge article on this and looked at Nosebleed players relative to a solver and it showed how unbalanced they were.

Link here if anyone is curious, it is pretty in depth and show's how even the best players in the world have big leaks.

https://saulocosta.poker/7-are-nosebleed-players-gto/

If the turn was the 8s or some other bricky card I'd be more likely to bet AJ on the river than I would on this board.

Yeah that makes sense.

This board is a bad example since the turn King will scare river value bets a bit more.

I need to look at data for B12 vs B30. I'm assuming C-X-B %'s increase in the former.

Solvers never 3-bet AJo here FYI, and 3-bet some AJs. so there's very few combos that actually get to river - AsJs being the most obvious - and this is also a call according to solvie world.

Also solvers are 100% calling w/ all AQ, no jams for SB. And I thought that was part of the equation that makes this river jam +EV, but it seems like we're undoing a lot of that now.

The highest EV part about jamming AQ OTR is you are free rolling. If IP has the same hand as you, there is a non trivial percentage chance that he will fold it (especially if he doesn't know MDA).

Going for thin value as IP will be incentivized even more on non BW runouts since there is less to be afraid of.

We also know from MDA that player's overfold flop on Ace high boards vs cbets relative to a solver. This will be good for us as OOP PFR when it comes time to getting value with our AQ via B-X-XR on lower runouts since a lot of the pocket pairs that backdoored a set will not be in IP PFC's range since they were folded on the flop.

Not sure, but I think people are just going to call different hands on the different boards. Like on the K board they'll call Kx more often and 99-QQ infrequently, but on the 8 board they'll fold all of the Kx whiffs and call the 99-KK more often. I don't do any combo counting, but I think there are just more calling hands on the 8 board?

I'm not going to do the math on this, but the AQ folding split is probably, at the very least, offset by the times they do call and you're paying more rake (not sure how capped these games are), and the times they show up w/ A3, 57, etc...

75s isn't even an open in the Cutoff, it's irrelevant to put it in the HJ RFI range let alone the 3bet calling range vs a SB3bet.

A3s is also mixed preflop and we have AQ so it's basically 2 combos max or more likely 1 combo.

I'm still in camp good for now.

I think compared to GTO we both get here with similarish range comps. I probably do d.barrel ~ 50% with anything useful and while they might not bet enough gash themselves when Xed to, that only gives them a wider range on the river which is to our adv.

QQ makes quite a lot of EV when it checks in this spot, mostly because of x/x. But when IP does bet it doubles up nicely into profitable x/r territory as ever because blockers and poor eq realisation as a BC. Plus i think it's useful to have some merge properties in these combos to disincentive or, ideally, trap IP into calling too many PPs if they think you're FoS.

While QQ x/r is only slightly mixed in I can't see HJ making gto MDF (would have to call most Ax and KQ, and unsold on that unless total station). so if we lock in a wider range with more Ax than they should have and make them overfold that range even just a bit, solver will just increase freq of it mixed x/r first. For me that is always going to be the best line OTR if you believe in the ranges that get there.

Also, given my x/r range is not as wide as GTO either, it seems to me better to memorise a few combos that make logical sense in a way I'll be able to recall, rather than try and replicate the full x/r range with hands like AJ/ATs. I think I want to block AQ the most, IRL where 3b calling ranges are more exaggerated. That's memorable. And we know the math makes sense as long as we don't get psychopathic with it.

It's also a perfect board psychologically as i think was stated earlier. Even fish can fold when value combos are blindingly obv

For the same reason that opponents here almost always 4-bet AA/AK/KK, is the same reason we sometimes say 5nl opponents are going to show up w/ hands "they shouldn't" be opening with.

I'm going to start a nickle jar for every time I have to say this in this forum, and literally point out hands where this has occurred. We can't in one breath say opponents aren't going to be playing perfect GTO when it fits our argument, and in the next breath, say they will be playing perfect GTO pre-flop ranges. It doesn't work like this.

The same reasoning on why AQ isn't a freeroll in this case, is all part of the same logic tree on why they over fold, and it's called...

... they are still learning, and don't play perfect.

But if we want to play solvie world logic now, solvies never shove AQ on the river... they call 100%.

We're looking at different models ...??

I just locked IP to bet too many second best hands and overfold to the jam and Pio increases her bluffing range from the teens to a criminally insane 80%, i.e. most of range now electing to x/jam. For LOTS of EV


I know it’s a model and all solves are de facto toy games - we’d argue over days to even set one up probably -but when you believe in your assumptions i think one should follow the solver blood amap. In general noding seems to reveal this: when people overfold we should hyper-compensate/go wild and when they overcall we should sh.it the bed.

gtow solve for this spot, 50nl rake fwiw

I have it on 150bb effective. I didn't node lock anything. I'll try changing to 50nl later, just noticed I had it defaulted on 500nl.

I'm still getting over the fact that you put 75s in his range and are doubling down on it because it is in his range "sometimes."

Anyways, this was a fun discussion. Even if I don't agree with you on a bunch of points it's still helpful to openly discuss ideas so I appreciate the back and forth.

Shout to Ceres for the cool HH as well!

Cheers.

I think it's a good idea to consider what their range actually looks like at all decision points, but it's hard not to incorrectly fixate on a certain part of their range. If they show up with A3s they probably have AJo too, so like in most spots you're incentivized to go thinner vs the wider range

Basically in the event you get snapped by 75s your jam was likely very profitable vs their actual range

I trust OP would have had the decency of posting the hand in the "fun hh containment thread" if that was the case, instead of creating a strategy thread.
So we can rest confident this hilarious result did not materialize.

(Also I think OP indicated earlier ITT villain actually did the fold, but I'm too lazy to scroll up this epic thread and double check)

I hear you. As I've said a bunch of times, I think you discount those hands, but excluding them 100% based on GTO strategy is silly, because... well... read the forum and what hands people show up with.

I learned something in this thread, so glad we broke it down more.

Cool, ty... appreciate you sharing your thoughts!