10NLz - Do we have a value bet on the river? - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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10NLz - Do we have a value bet on the river?

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01-06-2018 , 06:23 AM

JamesBJames

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 5,791

Haven't posted a hand in forever but since I'm still mulling over this hand I figured, hey, why not. No reads because Ignition Zone.

Ignition No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed)

MP ($9.36)
CO ($4.05)
Button ($9.83)
SB ($35.36)
BB ($4.68)
Hero (UTG) ($13.99)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q

, Q

Hero raises to $0.30, 3 folds, SB calls $0.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.70) J

, J

, 4

(2 players)
SB bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.70) 8

(2 players)
SB bets $1, Hero calls $1

River: ($3.70) 3

(2 players)
SB checks, Hero...?

What do you think villain's range is after donking flop -> barreling turn -> checking river?

If we are betting, what size? What's the worst hand that you bet for value?

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01-06-2018 , 07:30 AM

thexavman

newbie

Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 31

I'd check back river probably. Might be able to get some value against 9's, 10's and maybe something like A4s, or lower PP's (Assuming they're a fish) that villain might play this way though, especially if they're a fish. I think villain shows up with Jx more often than not if they're calling in this spot in general so I'd rather check.

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01-06-2018 , 08:34 AM

wonkydonk

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 627

I think we can conclude from the line that villain is a weaker player. We’ll see some weird traps here with nutted hands, and some weaker Jx that are going for a x/c but I think there’s also a lot of the typical fishy depolarised medium-strength donk combos. Pocket pairs, 4x etc. I reckon going small (40%ish) and bet folding with TT-AA and bet calling our stronger hands is ok. Can certainly see the arguments for a check back though

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01-06-2018 , 08:35 AM

Feng Shui

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2017 Posts: 595

Happy to b/f river villain is betting Jx far more often than not. Id only make it like 1/3p though to get called as wide as possible. Depends how bad villain is he could have 4x AK AQ pp's and perhaps some back door flush draws that picked up equity.

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01-06-2018 , 09:04 AM

Mohsen

adept

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 774

Imo V never has J+ here.
Yes maybe 2% of the time but I'm not worried.
So I would bet small.. 1/3 to get called. And yeah I am folding to a raise but I don't see a X/R happening here a lot...

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01-06-2018 , 10:07 AM

JockoRocko

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2017 Posts: 244

I think, the villain dont know where he are. Its can be middle pair, over pair or J with weakness kicker. While you haven't any reads, just call, but also i think, in 60%+ you are far here.

i hope my Eng is ok)

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01-06-2018 , 04:26 PM

2blackaces

journeyman

Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 212

Reads on villain would be great (the worse they are the more likely they are to show up with a J here). I think they are most likely to have a middle pp though and I would bet about $1.30 to target those hands.

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01-06-2018 , 04:58 PM

Haizemberg93

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 7,584

I guess betting like 1/3 if he somehow can have 8x 99 TT in this spot.
Its hard to put him on range because he should not ever DB this flop.He probably reps Jx and air and by that logic you should just check beck but again he is probably bad so maybe betting can gain some EV but not too much.

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01-06-2018 , 05:08 PM

Lockenfeller

stranger

Join Date: Dec 2017 Posts: 10

I'd say hehe could either have:
-> Air and he double barrels.
-> Some kind of Weak Jx or low Pair are also possible.
I would probably check maybe bet small.

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01-06-2018 , 05:26 PM

#10

.isolated

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 21,495

Quote:

Originally Posted by Haizemberg93

I guess betting like 1/3 if he somehow can have 8x 99 TT in this spot.
Its hard to put him on range because he should not ever DB this flop.

^^^^^

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01-06-2018 , 06:22 PM

#11

Herbbb

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 642

bet fold 1/2 pot villain can turn up with hands like A4 here

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01-06-2018 , 06:44 PM

#12

SharkytheFish

adept

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 1,114

Range wise I'm thinking a lot of pps [10s/99s/77s] and possibly even some Ax broadway hands. I think this line is rarely Jx or a boat.
10s is about the worst hand I would value bet here and in practice I nearly always check back otr. This is probably an example of a spot where a good player will get that last street of thin value.

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01-06-2018 , 08:04 PM

#13

simplelessons

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 3,036

I would check back river. Imo the river is either V gives up or he is trapping. I cant think of any hands someone would x/c. If this was a spot where our opponent was unknown but not anonymous I would advocate for checking back even more so we can make a note on him.

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01-06-2018 , 09:38 PM

#14

Bladesman87

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 14,543

His range is some annoying weak Jx and a bunch of stuff weaker than queens. I'm really not sure that we should value bet but I'm pretty damn tempted to bet small.

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