Nobody ever has a flush after they bet turn check river. Like literally 0% of the time. Ok to overbet here?


PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 105.3 BB
SB: 69.6 BB (VPIP: 39.20, PFR: 14.40, 3Bet Preflop: 1.49, Hands: 127)
BB: 91.8 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
UTG: 107.4 BB (VPIP: 19.51, PFR: 19.51, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 43)
MP: 183 BB (VPIP: 13.33, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16)
CO: 54.8 BB (VPIP: 71.43, PFR: 42.86, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T T

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold

Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) 3 5 K
UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: (7.5 BB, 2 players) A
UTG bets 3.6 BB, Hero calls 3.6 BB

River: (14.7 BB, 2 players) 9
UTG checks, Hero bets 21 BB

Do you have a non-Ax flush after checking back flop? You should be able to but perception is reality and you need to factor in the mental block caused by "checking river to induce bluffs". Doesn't matter if you can't have bluffs, he induced a bluff so he's desperate to call and he won't require a flush to do so.

Then theres the fact that TT is good >0.

If you must bluff, go bigger and give him something to catch. 2x pot

That's a good point, in theory I will check one once in a while but in practice I'm always betting it.
We are good very rarely imo, villain will have a scared Ax the majority of the time. I can't say much about even bigger river sizings as I'm not sure how big the difference between 150% and 200%+ actually is. I mostly use 150% in these kinds of spots.

utg should be cbetting almost all his range, but I assume some ppl would go for c/r with AA/KK/AK/55 and mby some 99-QQ,A5s/A3s c/c
doubt clubs x flop a lot, unless it's Ac3c
that being said, slowplays on flop do go for value ott, 1/2p looks indicative to me of what hands this guy is most likely leading (AA,KK,AK,A5s,A3s,55)
and he will be bluff catching brick rivers sometimes
so while his range is capped, it's capped to strong non-flush hands
you get to the river with JcTc,sometimes QcJc and 9x9c. if you decide to 1.5x pot for value with these combos, you are ,in theory, allowed ~2 bluff combos (38%). TT is the bottom of your calling range in this spot, as the rest of your hands are either Ax,Kx or JJ. there are 3 combos of TT with a club and you can bluff 2 of them.
this is just the theory tho, your opp may not be so convinced you can show up with a flush after having x back flop and may not be so eager to fold his top2/sets.

I get that, and it sucks. But you need some method to regulate your frequencies or you'll end up wildly over-bluffing.

You need give ups, would you prefer to give up with a hand that wins 1.2% of the time or 0% of the time?

Blockers could be a better tie-breaker in some cases because they reduce vill nut/near nut combos but here we don't need a blocker to know he doesnt have a flush, his imbalances already told us that.