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10nl - Middle set gets owned on river MW 10nl - Middle set gets owned on river MW

01-07-2012 , 05:29 AM
SB - 0/0 over one hand.
BB - 22/19/7.7 over 196 hands. 8% 3b, 23% call PFR in blinds, 25% FCB, 24 WTSD, 68 W$SF.

SB looks fishy. BB is an aggressive regular who likes to win pots.



Merge - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

MP: $10.12
Hero (CO): $12.37
BTN: $9.74
SB: $6.90
BB: $13.18
UTG: $11.47

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has J J

fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.30, fold, SB calls $0.25, BB calls $0.20

I gave SB a range of: broadways, Aces, big to medium scers, and suited gappers with a face card. I gave BB a range that wants to see the flop as QQ+, AK would 3bet for sure. JJ-22, AQ, AJ, AT, KQ, KJ, QJ, KTs, QTs, JTs, suited connectors, some suited gappers, and Axs. Am I missing anything?

Flop: ($0.90, 3 players) A J 8
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.80, SB calls $0.80, BB calls $0.80

I think BB raises his sets. Top pair makes sense, as does a flush draw. A8 and J8 are also possibilities. I think he raises AJ usually and A8 sometimes.

Turn: ($3.30, 3 players) 3
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $2.85, SB calls $2.85, BB calls $2.85

My betsizing is terrible.

BB tank calls, suggesting a hand like TPGK. Draws are getting decent odds multiway when it's obvious I'm stacking off. He could be contemplating what to do with two-pair.


River: ($11.85, 3 players) 7
SB checks, BB bets $9.23 and is all-in, Hero calls $8.42 and is all-in

BB SNAP shoves river. This is never a bluff. I assumed sets would raise the flop. I don't think he shows up with worse than a set for value. The flush draw missed. This looks like T9s every single time to me. Villain is aggressive and bluffy but IMO this isn't a spot where he'd be putting in his stack light.

Thoughts?
10nl - Middle set gets owned on river MW Quote
01-07-2012 , 05:32 AM
standard cooler, move on to the next hand
10nl - Middle set gets owned on river MW Quote
01-07-2012 , 05:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AsRequested
standard cooler, move on to the next hand
Standard cooler = we have a wide enough range for villain to justify a call and ignore the results. Here villain's range is quite narrow and specific. Obviously I snap called, but it's a spot worthy of discussion.
10nl - Middle set gets owned on river MW Quote
01-07-2012 , 05:43 AM
Yea I think its a sigh fold but is anyone capable of folding this during game? I dont think so..
10nl - Middle set gets owned on river MW Quote
01-07-2012 , 05:46 AM
it's a snap call, don't think this could ever be a fold until we have some ridiculous reads villain only shoves nut nut. There's so much worse he could be shoving.
10nl - Middle set gets owned on river MW Quote
01-07-2012 , 05:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisCrocker
it's a snap call, don't think this could ever be a fold until we have some ridiculous reads villain only shoves nut nut. There's so much worse he could be shoving.
Like what?
10nl - Middle set gets owned on river MW Quote
01-07-2012 , 06:34 AM
Don't ever consider folding here.
If you think he is ABC reg then the only hand that beat's you is T9 of harts, and that is only hand that beats you.

I've seen reg's plays set's this way
10nl - Middle set gets owned on river MW Quote
01-07-2012 , 07:12 AM
No way I am folding here. Sure he can have T9s but there is a chance of a set too.
10nl - Middle set gets owned on river MW Quote
01-07-2012 , 07:31 AM
why u hate ur turn sizing?
10nl - Middle set gets owned on river MW Quote
01-07-2012 , 01:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by goranbaxy
Don't ever consider folding here.
If you think he is ABC reg then the only hand that beat's you is T9 of harts, and that is only hand that beats you.

I've seen reg's plays set's this way
Quote:
Originally Posted by Auts
No way I am folding here. Sure he can have T9s but there is a chance of a set too.
MW he can have any T9s IMO. It's marginal but he probably calls/calls on the flop and turn, what else can he do? Anyway, I do agree with what ya'll are saying, T9s make up only a few combos...but 88 is only three combos and I think he plays T9s like this every time, where as 88 is raising the flop at least 70% of the time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark89er
why u hate ur turn sizing?
Because after the turn if BB calls and SB folds the pot is $9 and BB has $9.33 in his stack. I'm making the classic, "betting a little under the next dollar amount so you call with worse hands than you normally would" bet, but what is that getting value from? The last Jack in the deck? Maybe draws would be more inclined to call but they'll probably call anyway, especially combo draws which it's likely he has. Hands worse than a pair of Jacks fold versus either bet. It's not horrible but I don't see the purpose of betting as small as I did when I can set up the pot for the river. Honestly I could imagine him folding on the river with TP and a weaker kicker, but less likely if he has under a PSB.
10nl - Middle set gets owned on river MW Quote

      
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