Villain is 22/4 over 1k hands. No reads or notes, but he hasn't gotten out of line at all when we've played together. He seems sort of fit-or-foldy.

Cereus Network - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BB: $5.10
UTG: $8.08
UTG+1: $21.83
MP: $6.69
CO: $5.73
BTN: $11.39
Hero (SB): $10.10

Hero posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has A A

fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.30, Hero raises to $1.30, fold, BTN calls $1.00

Flop: ($2.70, 2 players) 3 2 5
Hero bets $2.00, BTN calls $2.00

Turn: ($6.70, 2 players) K
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.00, Hero calls $2.00

River: ($10.70, 2 players) 8
Hero checks, BTN bets $3.00, Hero raises to $4.80, BTN calls $1.80



I think PF and Flop are pretty standard. I definitely felt he had an overpair or AK and wasn't just stealing. I haven't seen him play post-flop a whole lot so I'm not sure if he'd float here because "he has AK here like always" or would himself float with AK.

Turn check/call was 100% because I felt I couldn't get any more value from TT, JJ, or QQ. Plus he might have KK here sometimes, although at the time I thought if he did we might have gotten all-in on the flop. An argument could definitely be made for leading since villain doesn't seem all that bluffy.

I just hate the river. I felt he's definitely not betting here with JJ or QQ, but I've played the hand so meakly like I have 77 or 88 I talked myself into essentially a call (I'm not going to leave $1.8 behind, lol) plus I felt there's a good percentage he could have AK and so much of my money is already in the pot already.

I'm not sure if it matters with this particular villain, but assuming he has PT and a brain my stats are around 16/14 so he probably sees me as a semi-loose/aggressive player. I'm definitely capable of 3b'ing blind steals, but I'm not sure if he's observant enough.

Shove turn imo, If he has KK your just gonna felt this hand KK is more likely than AK obviously coz he's more likely to float with overpairs, but I dont like the check call your giving him chances at free cards to spike sets, I'm a slight winner @ 10nl but not super pro hope my thoughts helped.. and I hope he didn't show you 8-8

I don't really see the value in shoving the turn. There's one hand in his range I get paid from, the rest fold. On the other hand, when I call I pretty much have to call the river too.

Sometimes playing with only 100BB is so weird. It seems like I'm frequently caught in weird turn spots.

ttt

Be curious to see his button PFR. With just his overall PFR being so low, he typically isn't raising with small PP's, unless his button raise is much higher. That given, I think your line is fine, although I probably lead the turn too, if he had a AK he may shove the turn over the top of you.

Just my 2 cents.

BAEVentures

I don't see anything wrong here, you played it fine, EV+ in my opinion, only hand that beats you is KK, he could have also the same JJ/QQ, and he value bets turn and river, he could take that line also with KK. Results does not matter.

I would just bet that turn. Might even just shove it seeing as you have about a PSB left. If he is going to bet it when you check, he will call if you bet.

I definitely need to remember this.

he is in the top 4% of his range (he raised in). He has a good hand and plays fit or fold, you have AA, board is dry in a 3-bet pot, and your default line should be bet bet bet and get it in imo.

over 1k hands and no notes or reads? how many tables are you playing?
what about 3bet/4bet stats to try and estimate if he would 4bet KK?

spent a while thinking about this and i like your line. i don't think we are missing value from AK on the turn or on the river since AK will keep value betting. as a bonus we may get value from TT-QQ on the turn and maybe even QQ will vbet thin on the river.

I had some small reads, but no notes. It's something I'm working on: note taking and not totally relying on PT.

BTW, this thread has ran its course so I'll reveal results. Villain of course had KK.

I'm running like 4 buy-ins below EV right now which is making me second guess every play I make.

Thanks for your input guys.

value bet turn, shove turn or check/shove turn.

what was his ats and ats and fold to 3b from blind stat, just the vp and pfr dont help you much for this hand you need relavent stats that help you narrow his range. at a guess its going to be JJ+ AKo+.

so id value bet every street comfertably, this board is perfect. your destroying almost all of his range.

for all those saying to bet/shove the turn, with what is he continuing here? only AK/KK imho and he will bet those anyway.
if we check the turn we signal that we didn't like the K and should get JJ-QQ (if not 99-TT) to bet.

It says that villain is playing fit or fold poker, this means he isnt folding. He is also in the top 4% of his range which means he probably inst folding anyway.

The more I look at this hand the crappier this spot looks given stack sizes and the board texture. You have the A, which blocks basically any Ax hands villain could have flatted with pre then floated on the flop after picking up a gutshot. Given the stats I think we can normally get value from FDs but in this spot I think you can almost completely discount any FDs in villains range. I guess maybe 55,66 continue a small percentage of the time, but tbh I doubt that's the case. With an SPR of just over 1 on the turn the stacks are going in, too bad you got coolered. I would probably just shove turn and live with the results, I don't think there are many people in the world capable of getting out of this hand with their stack intact.

whats it?
JJ/QQ are in the top %4 and imho are easily folding to a second barrel in a 3bet flop when a K spikes.

Running below EV should give you more confidence that you're making the correct plays, but simply getting unlucky.

Rather, you should second guess your plays when running above EV.