BTN 2.5x, we call BB QsJc

(5.5bb) 8s 3s 9c
X, 2.7bb, 9.1bb, call

(23.7bb) As
We 17bb, call

(57.7bb) 3c
We all in 75.7bb
Line?

i’m pretty sure this is one of the few turns for us to slow bluffing. i like x/jam turn more than betting and bombing river

Overbetting here for 1.5x pot. Villain wont have as many flushes with the As out there and we picked up additional equity as well.

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Small OTT - you can have a bigger sizing if you want but this board changes so much I think it is better to just simplify to 1/3 only OTT.

River is okay although once he calls that bigger sized bet OTT it will strengthen his range a ton.

I think also a subtle thing here is looking into his flop sizing - he bet 1/2 pot on this board which is not a thing. You want to go 75% or OB OTF. So that makes me think he is a weaker player and will over fold to the XR.

So once he calls the XR and calls the turn bet I think his range will be stronger than it should be - which makes the river shove not as good.

I am definitely trying to simplify whenever possible, but are you saying that you are only checking or going 1/3 here? If the turn was a blank, we would either check or overbet?

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yes

Creative line, stakkedoff!

I analyzed your hand in GTO Wizard:

I like your XR on the flop. You've got the spade, nut-gutshot, overcards. QsJx is a great semibluff candidate.




On the turn, the solver agrees with DooDooPoker - use 1/3 or X. This is very common on flush-completing turn cards.



We can see that the small size is preferred on most spade turns, whereas a larger size ~75% is preferred on most non spade turns. The frequency of your bet has a lot to do with how many of your OESD/Gutshots the turn completes.




On the river, the solver prefers a 35% block-bet-bluff. The 3 isn't a great river card for you, unfortunately.



The block-bet is composed of flushes and air:




In general, the paired river mitigates the strength of your flushes, which comprises the majority of your value range. As you can see the equity distribution isn't fantastic for your range:




Nice line!


GTO Wizard

Why solver likes 1/3 on spade turn?

I think it's because the equities aren't going to shift very much from the turn to the river compared to a brick

You can donk small here, if he re-raises you can 3bet flop with this hand, If he calls you lead small on spade turns. As played, bet small on turn.

As to why the solver bets small on spade turns, flushes are the great equalizers. Typically the blind is behind on majority of the boards, however both players are wide and have similar number of flushdraws, whatever the advantage the preflop aggressor had with AKs/KQs etc is nullifed because the second card in a flush matters less, infact it blocks the opponent from have second nutflush. It bets small because while both players have great number of flushes, there's great variability between the strengths of flushes within each players range and the abundance of made hands to get value from (pairs/overpairs/twopairs/sets/straights) makes the solver bet small.

wp but bet small turn is more sound yeah

I'm just as for donking as the next guy but I really don't think this would be the flop to do so on, especially BB vs BTN. Definitely agree with the turn small bet though.

I thought small on flush completing turns was to balance our range so we can bet non-flush hands for value?

If we nodelock to only call flop with our sets, then the solver will start mixing in a bigger sizing more frequently on the turn.

You'd be surprised, I have 163 flops solved on gto+, only 1 flop has no donking, 888. Oddly JJJ board has donking at 15%.

big difference between solver donk strategy and an implementable one in practice

Same could be said about flop check-raises.

you probably ****ed the preflop ranges honestly, probbly made BB too tight. most flops by far should have 0 donks on this config since there is very little assymetry and BTN range tends to be directly stonger than BB in almost every possible way
either that or solve accuracy is very bad

I agree with this, BB should never be donking trip boards. The average donk frequency (BTN vs BB) across all 1755 flops is between 4-7%, according to GTO Wizard.

Can you show us the ranges you used, Boomerx?

This is correct! We have a big equity advantage on flush turns, which makes it important to bet sets and 2p. Checking lets BTN realise too much equity for free in a situation where we have majority of potshare and should be playing aggressively.

Of course sets and 2p are not strong enough to go big, so we size down and bet some flushes for the same size to make sure our small bet doesn’t get raised too much.

I'm using zenith ranges. The pattern I noticed is that zeniths' RFI/3bets size increases as number of players left to act decreases. With 3bets from the blind in particular, the EV gain from 3betting larger with tighter range is more or less the same and with the least number of players left to act (from the bb), risk of being 4bet is at its lowest. All of this allows you to cull hands from the bottom of the 3bet range and add them to the top of the calling range, minimizing postflop asymmetry and reducing btn's overall advantage.

Funnily, that's not all. When I was looking at UTGvsBB donking I found something peculiar, while there's no donking on the most extreme boards favoring UTG (AQ4r) due to substantial range asymmetry, there's donking on AA5tt. I initially thought it was due to flushdraws as flushdraws and flushes substantially favor the bb in extreme range asymmetry. But looking into over all equity comparison I suspect another reason. On AA5tt, bb is a lot more behind in equity than on AQ4, it's so abysmally hopeless that leaving the checking range vulnerable practically makes no difference and in exchange you gain ev from fold equity.

I've been down the rabbit hole of donking and I can say that not having a donking/probing severely cripples your equity realization.

Zenith's 3bet ranges are very polarized. It sounds like you removed most of the marginal 3bets so your 3bet range is very tight and value-heavy. That's probably fine against many player types but it is significantly exploitable if ppl overfold against your raise.

This also explains why your BB is donking so much - it's way overpowered. What's your 3bet range BB vs LJ open? Like exactly QQ+ AK?

What confuses me is that OOP range has 30% of flushes on lot of spade turns , so he has enough flushes to protect small sizing and bet bigger with rest of flushes. Solver almost never uses big sizing



also IP folds on spade turn a lot more then on other suits



Maybe small betting has more to do with fact that IP has like 15% flushes himself, will fold a lot and (vs big sizing) call mostly with flushes and hands that have equity vs flush(like sets, or nut FD). Btw IP raises spade turns only 3%, so im not sure if we really worried about that too much.

For anyone looking to understand why you typically size down on flush-completing turns, I would highly recommend keuwai's excellent video:

11bb 3bet vs 2bb open

I wouldn't all say zeniths' 3bet ranges are all polarized, only from the bb.

Overfolding to the 3bet is not an exploitation of this strategy, its +200bb/100 everytime you fold. Only argument could be made is to raise with fewer hands to begin with, but then you run into the problem of not getting the +100bb/100 from when you get to steal the blind.

From what I understand, these are gto ranges, you can't "exploit" gto.

Are you using this range? I thought you removed bluffs from the bottom of the 3bet range?

Perhaps I misunderstood you.