I'm 28 and I work as a server. I'm good at what I do, jobs are not a problem.

Job are THE problem

QUIT UR JOB BROOOOO

Not only that, it's amplified when it's actually your only source of income if you don't have a VERY considerable financial cushion

It's a nice goal OP, but you're not there yet (in terms of finances). Until you are, you need to have a job that at a minimum covers your monthly nut

Poker can't save you yet. But mushrooms can.

Are you part of a cloud?

Bluntly. Your too old for grinding poker bud, if your 16-23, this is your time, to go run wild , possibly naked, in the online poker forest. Feist on that eco, eat it with no hands whilst on all furs, and let her liquidity fruits run down your lips and chin! Whilst you bath in her maternal glory - living a life of freedom, hotels, travelling and badass forest bitches looking for the nut. with an alpha.

At 28, society will have different expectations from you, but then, fu society.

Family/Friendz won't understand your ambition or skills here,. (Lots to think about fella).

If jobs aren't your problem, save up 20-30grand, sell everything you own, disown people you like to be around, find somewhere where cost of living is reasonable and give it a crack... you'll have a great experience and learn a lot about yourself..... but its not a sustainable easy lifestyle. especially depending how frugal you can or can't live.

I take the piss when use the English language, but my views come from a genuine perspective. Good luck whatever u decide.

Knew this thread would take off

To the moon

GL in whatever you decided to do OP

Update?

I get the sense you've lived, good sir.

I'm not going to make a new thread about this, so I'll just update here. I've stopped playing 100nl shortly after I made this thread, it ended up being 45.9K hands with all -in adj 1.7bb/100. I have not quit my job. I ultimately got what I asked from the management, I'm working 2 days a week. For the last 2-3 weeks I have been playing 200nlz.



It's not impressive and I'm not going to lie, last few sessions left me frustrated and today for the first time my EV dipped below 0 and I had to cut it short. In spite of the mediocre stats, both 100nl and 200nlz, I'm confident in my ability to beat 200nlz.

Some hands to share,

Yatahay Network - $2 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 162.09 BB
SB: 586.37 BB
BB: 122.42 BB
Hero (UTG): 121.2 BB
MP: 129.67 BB
CO: 140.05 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J J

Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, CO raises to 8.5 BB, BTN raises to 22 BB, fold, BB calls 21 BB, Hero raises to 121.2 BB and is all-in, CO raises to 140.05 BB and is all-in, BTN raises to 162.09 BB and is all-in, BB calls 100.42 BB and is all-in

Flop: (524.22 BB, 4 players) 6 7 8

Turn: (524.22 BB, 4 players) T

River: (524.22 BB, 4 players) 9

BTN shows A A (Straight, Ten High)

Main Pot [485.3 BB]: (Pre 55%, Flop 69%, Turn 75%)
Side Pot#1 [3.66 BB]: (Pre 66%, Flop 78%, Turn 83%)
Side Pot#2 [35.26 BB]: (Pre 81%, Flop 88%, Turn 90%)

BB shows K K (Straight, Ten High)

Main Pot [485.3 BB]: (Pre 18%, Flop 10%, Turn 5%)
Side Pot#1 [3.66 BB]: (Pre 18%, Flop 11%, Turn 8%)

Hero shows J J (Straight, Jack High)

Main Pot [485.3 BB]: (Pre 13%, Flop 11%, Turn 15%)

CO shows Q Q (Straight, Ten High)

Main Pot [485.3 BB]: (Pre 15%, Flop 10%, Turn 5%)
Side Pot#1 [3.66 BB]: (Pre 16%, Flop 11%, Turn 8%)
Side Pot#2 [35.26 BB]: (Pre 19%, Flop 12%, Turn 10%)

BTN wins 18.8 BB
BB wins 1.22 BB
Hero wins 483.91 BB
CO wins 18.8 BB


I remember thinking whether jamming JJ is ok in spot like this minus the cold caller and thinking to myself that zenith ranges probably mixes this up between raising and folding along with QQ. The cold caller only buttered up the pot. Checking it after the fact It's more folding than raising, substantially more folding I might add, but since it was my last hand of a frustrating session it wasn't going to be fold. Ultimately, so long as I remember not to over do it I think It's an OK play.


Yatahay Network - $2 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 101.5 BB
SB: 104.43 BB
BB: 121.59 BB
UTG: 129.11 BB
Hero (MP): 120 BB
CO: 126.05 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T Q

fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, CO calls 2 BB, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) 4 K 9
Hero bets 1.38 BB, CO calls 1.38 BB

Turn: (8.25 BB, 2 players) 5
Hero bets 10.25 BB, CO raises to 20.5 BB, Hero calls 10.25 BB

River: (49.25 BB, 2 players) 4
Hero checks, CO bets 49.25 BB, Hero raises to 96.13 BB and is all-in, fold

Hero wins 146.25 BB


Hyperknit, I hope you like this I'm really proud of this one. I've been looking for spots for a suicide bluff ever since we talked about them and so far I've done only 3 and I'm 3 for 3.

qft

Last hand is kinda ******ed imo. You need 50% folds and his range in equilibrium is 67% boats, not counting the fact that we block a lot of the non boats. The dude probably has to pure fold 55 to make this good

Both hands are punts and FWIW I see Zenith pure folding JJ here without a cold caller, and unless you have stats to show BB is a huge fish then his cold call should make you play tighter.

No offense but you are 0bb/100 all in adjusted at 100nl/200z and you are "confident" about being able to beat 200nlz? I played ~25k hands on 200nlz and won ~2bb/100 aiaj and I eventually quit because I realized I probably wasn't good enough to compete in those pools...

First hand is maybe a punt, probably, most likely... Zenith does 5bet JJ in that spot. it's just a minraise... at 3% frequency... and only if the 3bet is 3x and the cold 4bet is a minraise... at 100bb. The key is the cold caller and how it changes the game, its like one big, 22bb ante with capped range or so I thought. I am not proud and I will not contest this one.

Second one though. Most definitely not a punt. I've posted a similar hand few months back, the second of my 3 suicidal bluffs, also against 2bet cold caller. This is purely an exploitative play against players with wide gaps in their vpip/pfr. Specifically because they are playing some strategy other than gto that relies on abusing positional advantage. They have hands such as QTo,75s and AJs in their range, it is capped and several orders of magnitude wider than the gto suggests. Allowing us to do crazy stuff with absolute impunity, I've been check-raising, double, triple barreling, double check-raising. Literal button clicking. This is just the most egregious of all of the ways I've been abusing these players and a good way to demonstrate the idea of exploiting players who cold call 2bets too much and how far you can push it.

None taken, It's something that I've been thinking about myself. That data does not look good for my case however I will say that I have been running poorly in both samples, in the last 10k hands or so with premium hands I've run into 5 flopped sets in 3bet pots, 2 two pairs in 4bet pots and 1 fullhouse in a 5 bet pot. In my experience of poker I can confidently say that this is not the norm and like a true degenerate I will say that run-good is right over the hill and will happen any moment now.

Besides, just over a year ago I was losing at 10nlz and I've made substantial progress, I'm studying about as much as I am playing, If I wasn't beating 200nlz when I started I'm confident that I am now, at the very least, break even player at 200nlz. Only time will tell and I'll keep updating.

It is true that on ACR, on average the winrates are lower as there is quite a good bit of rakeback. If you plan on playing >250kh/yr @ 200z, it would be worth considering to switch to the General rewards program which would be higher rakeback/100 than the 27% given you grind enough.

A 1bb-3bb winrate at 200nlz on ACR is considered to be a very strong winrate, as you will often be collection an extra 3 bb/100 of rakeback.

But the swings will be really big, especially considering we don't know how profitable if at all you will be pre rb. If you can handle a $4,000-$6,000 swing financially, I'd definitely try it out. If that's too much, I don't think playing 200nlz on ACR is worth it. You could make infinitely more on ignition.

I think the point people miss when adding RB to winrate is that it's not equivalent to having a higher winrate.

If we have a 2bb winrate and get 3bb in RB - our winrate isn't 5bb.

It's 2bb and we experience the swings of a 2bb winrate.

The 3bb get's added on after.

Both of those hands seem spewy, after all the raising in the first hand and Bb cold calls I’m folding JJ, thats the only play there.

Hand 2 is pure spew OTR we check V bets pot making the pot 100bb after his PSB leaving him with 50bb left behind, you don’t have the fold equity here , the pot will be 200bb and 50bb to call, how can he fold?

and you block his bluffs/folds.

Whut

yeah this makes no sense...

There’s 2 theoretical win rates:
A) win rate before rake (rake adjusted win rate).
B) win rate after rake. (This is what most pros consider to be your true win rate, since it’s the amount of money you’re putting in your pocket)

I think that most players are talking about B when they talk about their win rate.

When you get your rake back, you can divide it by the number of hands u play and add it B. After all, this is the money you are putting your pocket from playing poker.

(You can also think of your true rake as original rake minus rake back.)

You seem to be posing a 3rd type of win rate that doesn’t care how much money you are putting in your pocket:
C) win rate before rake back.

I don’t see why we would use C.

No I'm talking about the odds of downswings or break even stretches associated with a low winrate.

I'd much rather have a 5bb winrate with no rakeback than a 2bb winrate with 3bb rakeback.

You'll make more money with the former.

Low winrates don't have higher stdev or larger swings

I know they don't have higher stdev but you have a higher risk of ruin with a lower winrate. Also I think the larger swings statement is kind of vague and not correct. The average downswing will be less.

Assuming 115 std

at 3bb/100 your average downswing during 50k hands should be around 25 buy ins
at 6bb/100 your average downswing during 50k hands should be around 21 buy ins