My Pre-Emptive Poobah Post

Good evening 2+2, I decided to take the evening to create this little piece of written experience to give something back to this awesome community that I have been a part of for almost 5 years now.

I'm impulsive in nature so my decision to create this came about 48 seconds ago. Therefore it may lack in structure slightly but I do hope to get my points across with some coherence.

I feel as though I have reached a point in my poker career where the game is finally starting to make sense. I am no longer afraid of certain players I play against. Let's be certain, I do not stick around in a game full of regulars, but if there are four winning players at the table and a huge fish, well, I'm more than happy staying to try to stack the mark. I'm currently a NL200/400 reg FWIW.

Ok so what I'm hoping to do here is to verbalize the ideas that took me forever to internalize. Many of the things that I say will seem trivial, or come as no surprise, but if you are honest with yourself you will see that you likely aren't applying these ideas, or aren't doing it effectively.

A little bit about myself: I'm 26, Canadian, and currently in my 3rd year of medical school. Holy crap I can't believe I'm 26.. time sure flies haha. Anyway, I started playing poker like most people probably did: home games, some tourneys, everyone thought they were awesome, etc. etc. I heard the famous “Poker is like sex, everyone thinks they're good at it, but no one really knows what they are doing.” This statement was probably one of the first things that got me thinking about poker. I realized that other than the hand rankings and the “pretend I'm weak when I'm strong” live bluff, I really didn't know much about poker. So I purchased and read 13, yes 13 poker books. Cover to cover. Literally.
The best of those books included Sklansky's No Limit Hold'em Theory and Practice and The Poker Mindset (read a couple years into my poker 'career').

I found Party Poker, deposited and lost $50 about 9 times, got angry. Went onto the internet to find that formula for winning at poker, and found 2+2 instead. But in reality, this was the formula for winning at poker.

Anyway, years later I find myself a consistently winning player (not without a ton of ups and downs and a lot of self-reflection) and would like to impart some advice on how to become a successful poker player.

There are many fantastic ideas illustrated in other Poobah posts that I am not going to regurgitate here. What I am going to do is get you to think about one concept, and one concept only, since I think it is the absolute most important thing you can do for your game. I like to call it...

Sticking that $$ into the middle

Whenever it is your turn to act, you have an opportunity to make money. The old adage, a penny saved is a penny earned applies equally here. Every time it is your turn to act you should ask yourself “what is the best thing I can do here, given my position, the players that have acted, the players that are left to act and the gameflow? If the answer is to raise you should ask yourself, how much? 2bbs? 3? 4? 5? 15? Just because people claim it is “standard” to raise certain amounts from certain positions, who cares? Does standard mean it is the most profitable thing for you to do? I think I can say with confidence the answer is, no. So don't fall back on “standard” to justify your decisions. This is lazy and often incorrect. (The only time I am an advocate of “standard” is against a total unknown that buys in for a full 100 bbs)
Let's do an example:
6 max
Hero: CO
Button: Reg, full stack 25/20, calls raise on button 9%, 3 bets button 6%
SB: Fish, 78 big blinds, 49/8, 3 bets 0% over 98 hands --> fold to c bet 85%
BB: TAG, 100bbs, 17/15, 3 bet from BB 5%

You are dealt XX
What is your best play here?

Many people will say, “well you are in CO, so your range should be 28% of your hands, so raise with that % since it is standard”
Well I think that is fair advice, but it is lazy and won't make you the most money. I'd be more of an advocate to raise closer to 100% of your hands. Furthermore, I'd be inclined to make my opening raise around 5 big blinds. Even further, my c-bet would likely be in the ½ pot range. Are we seeing why this makes sense here?
What questions are we asking ourselves when it is our turn to act pre flop? Hmm button fairly solid, probably folds to a raise. If I make it big it's less likely he calls/3 bets, SB probably going to call, BB going to fold. So I'll make a big bet pre flop so SB pays me off, then c bet ½ pot so I only need to win this 1/3 of the time to make money.
This isn't anything revolutionary, but how many of you actually think like this each and every time it is your turn to put money in the pot? I'm willing to bet close to 0% of you micro guys and still a small % of the SSNL guys, but not 0%.
Oh and this is only pre flop. The exact same line of thought applies on each street after. Also, you should be making a plan for future streets and, most importantly, sticking to that plan!

Let's say our plan back fires and SB folds but BB calls. Well then we have to ask ourselves one simple question. What is BB's range for calling here? If you have never used the software “poker stove”, well then there is no time like the present. It can be found here: http://www.pokerstove.com Open this software and figure out what a reasonable calling range is for someone who calls X% of hands. Once you have done this you need to look at the board texture and ask yourself “did this board texture hit his range? If so, how hard?” Ex: board is 57T two tone. Is this a good board to C-bet given the opponents pre flop big blind calling range? Is K85tt better? Is A93r better? Given each flop texture how much should we C-bet? ½ pot? ¾ pot? Full pot? 1/5th pot?

If our flop bet is called, which turn cards are we going to give up on? Which are we going to barrel? How much are we going to bet on the turn? Are we considering a 3x barrel if the river is a good card? What is a good river 3x barrel card against this specific opponent? This last point is especially important because while you may be able to get a thinking player off pocket 4's on a T23KA river, a fish may just snap call you the whole way.

So many of you know that this is what you should be doing, but honestly, how many of you do it? Most of you just bet ¾ pot and hope to take it down. When BB check calls you, you likely give up, or maybe fire some random over card when it comes. But again, this is both lazy and not the best way to make money (and often loses you money).

If you would like some practice at doing this, then you can go to this site and try it out: http://flopgenerator.com/
When using this software, pretend as if you are in a certain position, like the button, and go through certain situations: TAG SB calls, flop comes XYZ. LAG SB calls, flop comes XYZ. What are you going to do given your opponent and the board texture? How much will you bet relative to the size of the pot? Does the board texture influence the size of your bet (almost always, yes!)

At this point I assume a lot of you are like “well, no new information here, I can't believe I just read all of this.” But stop. Think. Do you actively do this while you are playing poker?
If you are playing >6 tables are you able to do this? Do you have movies on in the background? Are you on the phone/messenger while you are playing? All of these things will prevent you from making the best decisions while at the poker table. And any time you cannot make the best decision, you lose money. Plain and simple.

Your thought process post flop should be the same as pre flop. “What am I going to do if my opponent bets, given the pre flop action, given the game flow, given the players left to act, given the number of players in the pot, given the board texture? How am I going to react if he bets really small? Really huge?” Or if it is checked to you, you do the same thing.

This whole thing is a very tedious task at first, but just as trying to memorize a starting hand chart given your position at the table was a tedious task that is now first nature, this will become that way over time.

Ok so like I said, no huge revolution here. But I guarantee that only a small small % of you do this, and the ones that do are likely the most winning players.

I hope that made sense, if not drop a reply and I'll clarify things. Any other questions you have about poker let me know, I'd be glad to help out in any way.


As a final note I think I will leave you with my mental cycle that I replay in my head constantly while I am playing poker.

1)Why am I playing at each table? Are there fish here? It not, it's time to leave!
2)Who are the fish at each table?
3)What is my plan of attack on each of these fish? Am I betting big to steal on the flop/turn? Am I betting small with speculative hands since I know they will call a lot and I don't want to invest too much money pre flop?
4)What is my plan of attack on the regs? Am I going to open fold QT on the button because BB 3 bets 18% of the time from the BB? Am I going to start limping buttons to counter act this? Am I going to 4 bet light to counteract this?
5)Who are good opponents to 3 bet?
6)Given the game flow what should I do to this opponent's open raise?

I think that I've given you guys enough to think about for now. If you take my advice to heart, I guarantee you will see a gigantic improvement in your win rate. As a last example, if a pot is 10 big blinds, and you think there is a 50/50 chance your opponent is folding, regardless of the size of your bet (within reason) why would you bet 7.5bbs when 5bbs would do the same thing?
How many times does this happen each 100 hands? Ex: flop is K62r. Do you think calling 7.5 bbs is any different than 5 bbs? No. So if you are bluffing here, why bet 7.5bbs when 5 bbs will accomplish the same thing?

If this situation happened once for each 100 hands I have already improved your win rate by 2.5bb/100.

So you can see how such obvious, simple things can have a huge impact on your winrate. Yet so few players take these things into real consideration.

They are more caught up in, “hmm what is his 3 bet% here. Well we're 120bbs deep so I'm going to call and see what happens.” And their thought process stops there.

I call that burning money.

Anyway, I ended up writing much more than I intended, but I do hope that this hits home to you guys, especially the micro grinders 12 tabling at 0.5bbs/100 and never able to move up.


Hit me up with any questions, good luck at the tables!



TLDR:

My entire post was about not being mentally lazy. So if you wanted a TLDR, well, you aren't getting one.

1st

tl;dr

Edit: good read, good post

2nd

Good read.

2nd
thanks man
EDIT:FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU

How do you have time to play poker if you're a med school student?

7rd

Life is about time optimization.

Instead of going to the library for 12 hours each day with my earphones in my ear listening to music, checking facebook, checking sports, watching random tv shows, etc. etc. etc.

I bring my study materials, a bottle of water and a snack and I study like I play poker. In fact poker has helped my studying immensely.

So what takes the above people 12 hours, I can accomplish in 4.

Wow, I wish I could do that. Poker has severely hurt my studying habits.

A couple more questions:

1. How many tables do you play? How long did it take until you could proficiently multi-table while accomplishing everything you wrote in OP?

2. Would you still recommend reading poker books or is 2+2 sufficient for micro-stakes players?

Thanks for the informative post Keyser,

I'd like to ask you one thing, it may not be 100% related to your post but it relates:

I find myself in this situation very often, say I open raise PF in whatever position, I get 1 caller. Flop comes and I whiff it. I'll Cbet most dry flops (K high, A high) and get called, then I have no idea what to do on turn when I miss again.

I end up just c/f the vast majority of the time. I pretty much have no plan after Cbetting most of the time and give up when I have nothing. If my Cbet gets called on a K83r board or something similar, I end up c/f the turn because honestly what else could he call me with on the flop.

Is this right? I feel as I'm lost when I play most of the times.

EDIT: Any recommendations on reading material that you found really helped/opened your eyes?

1) I play between 1 - 7 depending on how good the games are. I aim for 6 tables. I used to 12 table NL50 but was just a robot and only had a pre flop game. Post flop was just a mess. I got coaching to help solidify the fundamentals, then dropped to 4 tables until I found I could manage everything. I'd play more than 6 now but I have a 28 inch monitor and I don't like how small the windows get after I do more than 6. So I guess that's not a bad thing since it forces me to focus more on the tables I'm on anyway.
So how long did it take? About 5 months of a decent amount of work.

Here is a good formula: 1 hour of poker + 1 hour of study.

If you do this, I guarantee you will fly up in both winrate and stakes

2) If you have read Sklansky's book and The Poker Mindset I don't think printed books have as much value as ebooks these days, but this is just my opinion (I have not read Harrington on Hold em). The best books I have ever read are Improva's book "The Poker Puzzle" and Baluga Whales' book "Easy Game"

If you were to buy only one of these, I'd purchase, without question, "The Poker Puzzle". The prices are steep for micro players so I wouldn't invest in these until you are at least a NL50 player, but if you do buy "The Poker Puzzle" your game will improve tremendously.

Disclaimer: I have no financial stake in any book or ebook.

This all comes down to 1) opponent 2) opponent's range, and 3) your perceived range.

So
1) Opponent: What is this opponent likely to do given any flop? If they are a nit, they are likely fit or fold, so just barrel and if they call you can give up
If they are really loose passive, then it's best to either not bet at all, or plan on firing multiple streets to get him to fold a 3rd best hand. - there are 2 examples.
2) Opponent's range: does this board hit the opponent's range? then use this information and combine it with what I said in 1)
3) Your perceived range: if your opponent is a fish, this doesn't matter. But if your opponent is good he will recognize that your range is stronger in certain situations. Ex: If you open UTG and he calls on the button and you c bet a K high flop, he really has to believe that a K is definitely in your range. However, if you are now on button and the SB calls (thinking reg), he will be less likely to give you credit for a K, since your range on the button is so much wider than it is UTG.

Something else to think about. What do you do when you call a pre flop raise with 99 on the button vs an open from UTG when the board comes down K83r? Surely you call a flop bet. How would you react to a turn bet? would you call again? If so, how would you react to a 3x barrel?
By putting yourself in your opponent's shoes (assuming they aren't just clicking buttons) you get a better picture of how to handle situations and how your opponents are thinking in those same situations.

Make sense? If not, let me know.

In the example you're giving me, I think I can't really fold right away on the flop, but I'll most likely fold to a 2nd barrel. Although isn't it bad to check the flop to fold to a brick turn? If he checks though, I'm not sure if I should bet or check behind.

Does this seem right?

Don't wanna derail your thread, tell me if you want me to edit..

I'm not sure I totally understand what you saying but I think what you are writing is what you think is the "standard" thing to do. But remember, it is all opponent dependent.

If you are the pre flop raiser:
If you are playing against a guy that will call down with 2nd or 3rd or 4th pair, then by all means barrel away with your 2nd pair. You have his calling range crushed.
If you are playing against a nit then whether or not to barrel with your 2nd pair depends on board texture and your hand. If you have KK and the board is A96 then you shouldn't barrel the flop. Check the flop (to call at least the flop if you are OOP vs the caller) and then bet the turn. If you have 99 on a K high flop, the I'd say to bet it, since a QJT turn you hate (and by not betting flop he could catch a pair on the turn).

If you are the pre flop caller:
Then just think about the situation in reverse. If you are playing against a nit, then call the flop and fold to further action on the turn or river.
If you are playing a weak passive guy and he checks, then put a bet in. If he calls, then bet the turn but make the turn bet smallish so that he will call with the bottom of his range (2nd and 3rd pairs).
If you are playing against a betting maniac, then call the flop, call a non scary turn, call a non scary river (board pairing cards, low cards).

There isn't a magic formula here, it's all about doing things against specific opponents. You will guess wrong often, but as you get better you will see this improve. The most important thing is to have a plan. If you are lost in a hand, then put it up on 2+2.

Who did you get your coaching from? Anyone at deucescracked ?

No,
soccermom5: Jon Ettinger

Ah ok, ive not heard of him. Was he expensive and where did you find him?

at what point are you levelling yourself by thinking this way? do u ever level urself by this thinking? (esp when you say what do you do/think/react when x happens)...

great post btw. i've been doing this before this was posted, and i've seen traumatic results.

He's Peligro! on 2+2
less than $200/hour when I had him, but not sure anymore. It's been a while.

Thanks so much for the post! I definitely agree I've been mentally lazy. Everytime I wanted to post a hand on 2+2 for discussion... it turns out that just looking at the PFR range of the villian on certain boards already answer my question before I can post a hand, yet I never seemed to give thought before I bet the "standard cbet of whatever size" Mental laziness is definitely my #1 leak, and I probably shouldn't even play if I don't want to think about hands.

the problem with 2p2 is everyone responds with "std" responses. when you decide to give ur thought process, it degrades into a "i'm right you're wrong for my standard reasons" and really at uNL (and probably SSNL) doesn't spark any real discussion.

the first 2 or 3 posts of a thread really determine the outcome of a thread.

i'd suggest finding a friend that plays and bounce hands off of him/her in person, not on a forum. use a forum for a sanity check.

I agree, but if you are a micro player posting hands online is certainly valuable just to hear the thought process of other people.

Keyser,

Think this is an awesome post from an awesome poster. I really relate to thinking about each individual situation and all the information involved.

When I started thinking more about ranges I started attacking cbets more with C/r's from the blinds and just raising the flop. You talk a lot about barreling as the aggressor and floating with possible best hands but when do you like to go out there and steal a pot?

Thanks

Thanks for the compliment, I appreciate it

That's good you are thinking about attacking C-bets particularly those that do not fit ranges you have given people based on board texture (just remember that you have to be able to represent a hand that could c/r a particular board given your pre flop actions and position

Some great pots to steal are when you complete in the SB or check in the BB (there is a limper somewhere) and the flop comes dry, and one high card.
a 1/2 pot bet does wonders here.
Other good spots are when there has been a raise and a call pre flop. You call from blinds. You check, the PFR checks, and the late position guy checks. Now you have a good spot to fire the turn and/or the river.


That little bit of info will probably add 1-2bbs/100 on your winrate.

if someone wants a free sweat right now PM me. first come first served. done over skype and team viewer
warning: i will be smoking hookah the entire time