Reads
Villain is 10/7 over like 89 hands, I have no other stats or reads on the guy, and he has yet to get out of line from what I've seen.

Thoughts
Seeing as he's a nit, I don't see many KT's in his range, or any other 2 pairs combo. I also don't expect a nit to be raising pair plus FD's on this turn, so if I shove, can I only expect to get looked up by 77 and TT? I mean, if he's raising this turn with a draw he's calling it off, but am I more likely to be behind than ahead taking everything into consideration? Being OOP sucks, so what's our best line here?

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

CO: $27.70
BTN: $31.38
SB: $25.07
BB: $29.82
Hero (UTG): $26.20
MP: $24.75

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with 2 2
Hero raises to $0.85, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.85, 2 folds

Flop: ($2.05) K 7 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, BTN calls $1.50

Turn: ($5.05) T (2 players)
Hero bets $3.50, BTN raises to $7, Action on Hero.

Why should we take the line we're taking?

ugly... but 89 hands is not enough and without solid read that he is as nitty postflop+he truly is nit preflop I wont fold this ever, so I'd call and try get it in on most rivers.
At worst you are never drawing dead, thats a good thing

Also, you can bet slighly bigger on the turn (3.75/4).

But once again, I'd wait for someone competent to answer if I were you.

I should be betting $4 on the turn, yah.

I agree with your thought process, but I'm going to shove because people (especially nits) do dumb stuff and sometimes nits spaz out, he's probably multi-tabling and I know this will sound dumb but say he misclicks a hand like 89 or something.

What I'm getting at is that he only has to be spazzing a super small percent of the time to make our shove profitable based on a range of sets/ small % of bluffs.

*Also forgot about statisticial convergence. (Maybe he's not 10/7)

He will call with better only if we shove though and I dont think he has too many outs on us to make peeling a bad play.

If he never does this for value with Kx type hands and there's not many 2pairs in his range then i love call c/c river. Shipping turn is terrible if he's not calling it off with one pair hands which this guy sounds like he doesn't do.

Meh. He could have AK KQ or QJd probably 77. Ship it for value. He isn't folding any of those combos.

fyl

i would call and check-call blank rivers.

i call here but i would donk most rivers smallish ( except if a diamond come's then i'm c/c). he can see this donk as weak easily. but dont think he bets worse hands on the river here if we call cuz it looks pretty strong.

Shove. He calls and shows QJdd. River is a 3 of diamonds and you scream: "Why the **** do my sets never hold!?"

Get it in bro. Dont overthink stuff like this. You have a set, play it like the nuts in all but the very worst situations.

with all due respect, villain is a huge nit. he is bluff raising here basically never unless he misclicked. and his value range crushes us. its closer to a fold than a shove. pot odds kinda dictate we have to peel one off though.

Go with your read. Call turn and check/call river unless it's a 2.

hes not a "good" nit since he minraised. This particular villain is just a really tight fish probably. Anyways you should still get it in everytime. You will see a lot more hands than you think. Tight preflop numbers doesnt mean someone has to play weak/tight postflop.

Get it in and see ATdd, JQdd, AK and worse much more often than you see higher sets. Regardless of his hand though hes like never folding so get it in on turn to get max value from his draws.

You can profitably get it in here without further thought imo. Dunno why you want to level yourself here with bottom set on a pretty safe board.

He'll call with worse and draws often enough to make this very profitable... Or he will just fold his A high flushdraw, which is a good thing as well.

Nh sir.

89 hands and no tangible read? adsdsjklfhsdjk;fhsdfjk;sdhfjksdhfjk

why don't people look at their opponents any more?

edit: and what MDoranD said.

u are reading too much into 89 hands. bet more on the turn and get it in over his raise for value. worse hands call like Kx, KT and several combo draws like QJd. u dont need to think so much with sets unless the board and action gets insane.

I 100% agree, I really wasn't too sure how often he's actually gonna turn up with them. Sure 89 hands is nothing, but why are we playing with a HUD unless we're gonna 'lol300hands' everytime someones does something which seems out of line with their numbers, it seems pretty pointless to me.

Haha, 6 tables against players I won't be playing with in 3 weeks time I guess.

I'll get full HH up when I get in from work.

I just think if that's your attitude don't put a HUD up till at least 300 hands.

ship ldo

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

CO: $27.70
BTN: $31.38
SB: $25.07
BB: $29.82
Hero (UTG): $26.20
MP: $24.75

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with 2 2
Hero raises to $0.85, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.85, 2 folds

Flop: ($2.05) K 7 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, BTN calls $1.50

Turn: ($5.05) T (2 players)
Hero bets $3.50, BTN raises to $7, Hero calls $3.50

River: ($19.05) J (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Final Pot: $19.05
BTN shows 9 T (a pair of Tens)
Hero shows 2 2 (three of a kind, Twos)
Hero wins $18.10
(Rake: $0.95)

This an acceptable range? 77, TT, 98dd, QJdd, ATdd, AJdd, AQdd. Mmm I think ship now too, obviously.

Just make sure you take a note he is capable of raising the turn with pair + FD hands.

Get it in.

Get it in before a diamond comes and kills your action. There are more combos of KT alone than sets.