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Old 07-11-2018, 03:21 PM   #1
WayneA64
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Question Win Rate vs Draw Down

Hello!

I've been playing a solid winning game over the last roughly 11,000 hands at 10 NL. My win rate would vary between 8-11 bb / 100 on average. Was working up a nice consistently profitable chart with small dips of 300 or so BBs. I was up just under 12 buy ins profit.

Then between yesterday and today, my chart fell off a cliff. I lost 10 buy ins in less than 2 days playing without changing up my overall game. It seems I haven't been able to make any big hands, a lot of my 3 bets are now being 4 bet, I'm loosing my all ins, bluffs are not working. When I have good hands, I just face folds.

Back to back to back haha ... Are sharp swings like this fairly common over the long run?... Is it common to give back 11,000 hands worth of profit in a little over 1,200 hands? I feel I was doing so well prior to this.

Thanks!
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Old 07-11-2018, 04:04 PM   #2
WorldzMine
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Re: Win Rate vs Draw Down

Varience is a *****, especially if you start to get a bit tilted as a result of it which is likely to have happened when you drop 10 bi's in just 1200 hands. But stuff like this does happen a lot and you have to ride it out and always immediately quit or take a break the second you notice you are playing worse/tilted.
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Old 07-11-2018, 04:48 PM   #3
WayneA64
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Re: Win Rate vs Draw Down

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Originally Posted by WorldzMine View Post
Varience is a *****, especially if you start to get a bit tilted as a result of it which is likely to have happened when you drop 10 bi's in just 1200 hands. But stuff like this does happen a lot and you have to ride it out and always immediately quit or take a break the second you notice you are playing worse/tilted.


Thanks for your input!

Looking back I definitely felt a little frustrated and confused. It was disheartening to see my gains take such a large drop haha .. I'm sure it affected my thinking in some hands without me realizing it.

I couldn't find too many mistakes in my play after reviewing, but its still so fresh, i'm going to take another look in a few days after i'm detached from the losses haha.

I'm sure there are a few close calls that would have softened the draw down if played differently.

What is the biggest draw down you have encountered? vs what would be a standard draw down for you?
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Old 07-11-2018, 05:42 PM   #4
WorldzMine
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Re: Win Rate vs Draw Down

I don't know what "draw down" means unless you mean downswing?

Play less tables, concentrate more on each decision, study any poker material online, watch poker vids. When you do your review post the hands on here to get feedback and try to be open-minded to the feedback you get.
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Old 07-11-2018, 06:01 PM   #5
WayneA64
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Re: Win Rate vs Draw Down

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Originally Posted by WorldzMine View Post
I don't know what "draw down" means unless you mean downswing?

Play less tables, concentrate more on each decision, study any poker material online, watch poker vids. When you do your review post the hands on here to get feedback and try to be open-minded to the feedback you get.


haha yeah I was referring to "downswing" .. I'm a trader as well so I use draw down as a common term.

Definitely! I slowed down my play when I went back at it. I think I was "auto piloting" a little through those losses. I've made nice progress winning the money back already.
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Old 07-11-2018, 09:23 PM   #6
Mohsen
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Re: Win Rate vs Draw Down

You saw a heater in 11K hands (which is like 6-7 hours of play)
Then you hit a bumper in the next 1K.
Overall you have a samole of 12K hands. Which means absolutely nothing.
Having 50BI swings for OK-ish winners (proven ones! Not 11K hands...) are 100% normal and can be purely variance.
Understand that poker is a high variance environment and move on...
If you can't cope with it, quite while you can.
Sorry if I was hard. I wish someone would have told me all this 2 years ago :-)
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Old 07-12-2018, 12:59 AM   #7
.isolated
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Exclamation Re: Win Rate vs Draw Down

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohsen View Post
Having 50BI swings for OK-ish winners (proven ones! Not 11K hands...) are 100% normal and can be purely variance.
ofc it can be variance. The most likely answer is that they're playing badly mixed with bad variance. Having a 50bi ds at micros is absurd and a sign that you're a losing player and have huge leaks.

Quote:
Are sharp swings like this fairly common over the long run?
I wouldn't say that losing 10 stacks in 2k hands is common but it happens. I've had it happen a couple of times in my last 250k hands. Though, each time I've made significant mistakes whether it be subtle tilt or just not playing my best because of fatigue or w/e.
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Old 07-12-2018, 08:58 AM   #8
Alci
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Re: Win Rate vs Draw Down

It could be variance or you were on a heater or that you're not as good as you think. 11k hands isn't enough to decide. Play more and see what happens.
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Old 07-12-2018, 12:56 PM   #9
WayneA64
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Re: Win Rate vs Draw Down

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Originally Posted by .isolated View Post
I wouldn't say that losing 10 stacks in 2k hands is common but it happens. I've had it happen a couple of times in my last 250k hands. Though, each time I've made significant mistakes whether it be subtle tilt or just not playing my best because of fatigue or w/e.

Thanks for the input! I'm sure that's what was happening to me without me realizing it at the time.

I did find some mistakes after more review and study. There was bad luck but the mistakes definitely exaggerated the losses.
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Old 07-12-2018, 12:58 PM   #10
WayneA64
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Re: Win Rate vs Draw Down

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Originally Posted by Alci View Post
It could be variance or you were on a heater or that you're not as good as you think. 11k hands isn't enough to decide. Play more and see what happens.
Playing more, back on track now!
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Old 07-12-2018, 12:59 PM   #11
WayneA64
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Re: Win Rate vs Draw Down

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mohsen View Post
You saw a heater in 11K hands (which is like 6-7 hours of play)
Then you hit a bumper in the next 1K.
Overall you have a samole of 12K hands. Which means absolutely nothing.
Having 50BI swings for OK-ish winners (proven ones! Not 11K hands...) are 100% normal and can be purely variance.
Understand that poker is a high variance environment and move on...
If you can't cope with it, quite while you can.
Sorry if I was hard. I wish someone would have told me all this 2 years ago :-)

Haha I don't mind the variance at all , was more so looking to find out if this is normal or not. Thanks!
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