Quote:
Originally Posted by OWLS
Why a flush? What is he even repping here, QTc, that doesn't make much sense for either flop or turn? The Jc is also a very good card since it can't be something like JTc or QJc. Seems like it's either 88 or 44 that beats us or a weird JJ which I don't think plays turn or pre like that. Could be something like J9, K9, A9, 89 too but we have the 9 blocker.
I tend to not jam in these turn spots because recs in these games have the most weird bluff and value lines. Stuff like JTs and 87s missed and are likely bluff candidates, while QTs is the only thing that got there. If I jam turn it likely folds out all his draws and random air shoves, and think most of our ev here, when we are not beat, comes from catching those missed draws and air.
If he really is a fish, he won't fold to the turn jam. I'm not sure if we want 9x or
blockers here. I don't see 9x playing like this, I think fish usually XR way more polarized so it is either a missed draw OTR/FH/or backdoor clubs.
The 9 only blocks 1 combo of 99 and 1 combo of 98s. So I think blocking flushes with overpairs might be better but it is a tough spot. That's pretty much the reason I'd shove turn here or X back flop. Around half the deck is going to make our life difficult if he ships, and his sizing's/line are very value heavy.
I think fish usually give up OTR as well, he played this hand well so far wrt to his flop sizing/turn sizing and river ship sizing. So I'd say he is 1) Not a fish 2) Shipping for value
Interested in results though.