Okay cool I'll definitely check that out.

Any examples off the top of your head

I think this is a dilemma when playing on a softer site like Ignition. You run into so many players that will call super light on the river. It can become tempting to go for these thin value bets.

I'm taking a look at regular spots right now, I don't know if they will seem surprising to you or not

Qs 9d 2s 3h 3s small bet flop, overbet turn

AQ is mostly checking river and anything worse is pure checking

Kd Qs 3s 2h Ts small overbet flop, small overbet turn

Top 2p is always checkign without a spade and anything worse is always checking

As Qs 6d Th 5s small overbet flop, 2/3 turn

sets are starting to check back sometimes OTR, with AA checkign EV being significantly higher than betting, because we block enough worse calls

I hear this but on the next thread I read about how much pool overfolds
I'm completely fine with this approach of value betting thin vs stations but you need to have evidence towarsd them being stations and there's also a limit to how thin you can go, plus you can always use smaller sizings

Oh okay - yeah whenever a flush completes whether its front door or back door I figured we need to do a ton of checking OTR. Especially when we start constricting their turn range with huge sizing's.

Any non flush scenario's that are surprising? I've studied OB's a decent amount but definitely not an expert.

As 9d 3s, 33% flop | 6h, 133% turn | Qh, mostly a brick out runout.
AK is pure checking back river

Nice example:

BTNvsBB I'm assuming?

I would 100% jam AK there. Does it X back any broadway river or just the Q specifically?

Does solver include villains that cannot punish us for not protecting our river checking range oop or villains that always raise nuts on flop or turn? I dont think so...

actually you can prob bet small close to range here where you're just giving up with complete junk and pure betting anything worth it
doubt ip is raising the 20% the solver is
but you have to drill the line a little bit, otherwise you'll tend to be way too aggressive on turns (cause you get there with ~450 combos) and subsequently rivers
at least you don't have to worry about your flop x range anymore and it's anon anyway

I rather just x/c river if you wanna play it like this.

I don't think flop/turn is inherently bad, but river is a bit too thin for me and you have a great combo to x/c and people won't value bet A9 for example and might bluff quite a lot of combos (55/54/XXss/etc)

Ah yeah I'm famous for always saying do what solver does, that's me

In solver land this hand is losing 11bb every time you take this line on average. If you have data that supports the idea that your exploit can overcome those 1100bb/100, then by all means, take the line and print.
If you don't, then please take the line, but against me

Mostly just fold bc sizing makes continuing -ev. That's a no-solver guess.

To make sure I am reading this right, the first flop is a small bet and the others are overbets?

lmaoooooo

Thanks aner0 and ionu for the education. I'll start cbetting these boards smaller in the future
Results

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
UTG ($34.50)
HJ ($54.89)
CO ($25.77)
BTN ($29.71)
HERO ($26.76)
BB ($29.88)

Dealt to Hero: 9 K

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To $0.75, BB Calls $0.50

Hero SPR on Flop: [17.34 effective]
Flop ($1.50): 2 9 3
HERO Bets $1.68 (Rem. Stack: $24.33), BB Calls $1.68 (Rem. Stack: $27.45)

Turn ($4.86): 2 9 3 4
HERO Bets $4.87 (Rem. Stack: $19.46), BB Calls $4.87 (Rem. Stack: $22.58)

River ($14.60): 2 9 3 4 2
HERO Bets $19.46 (allin), BB Calls $19.46 (Rem. Stack: $3.12)

welp if the average guy in the pool is going to call down with 66 then by all means take them to value town
I imagine 66 is a fold even vs small flop and 2 half pot ish bets on turn and river cause in that node you're not afraid to bet river thin for value with K9, mby Q9. or mby he jams 66 sometimes.

As villain check jamming or maybe only cr turn with 55 is interesting, what you guys think?

They do. Had someone call down my AA full, with 76o no pair by river.