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Old 04-07-2021, 10:44 PM   #26
DooDooPoker
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Re: Value bet on a diet

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You should take a look at hands that go for 3 streets on different textures even on BTN v BB, you will probably be surprised of how many "strong" hands solver checks back on the river on certain textures, specially after overbetting turn. At the end of the day you do need to get called by worse more often than by better, even if your hand has 70%,75% equity versus villains current range, it may not be enough to get another street of value
Okay cool I'll definitely check that out.

Any examples off the top of your head
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Old 04-07-2021, 10:49 PM   #27
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Re: Value bet on a diet

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You should take a look at hands that go for 3 streets on different textures even on BTN v BB, you will probably be surprised of how many "strong" hands solver checks back on the river on certain textures, specially after overbetting turn. At the end of the day you do need to get called by worse more often than by better, even if your hand has 70%,75% equity versus villains current range, it may not be enough to get another street of value
I think this is a dilemma when playing on a softer site like Ignition. You run into so many players that will call super light on the river. It can become tempting to go for these thin value bets.
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Old 04-07-2021, 10:56 PM   #28
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Re: Value bet on a diet

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Originally Posted by DooDooPoker View Post
Okay cool I'll definitely check that out.

Any examples off the top of your head
I'm taking a look at regular spots right now, I don't know if they will seem surprising to you or not

Qs 9d 2s 3h 3s small bet flop, overbet turn

AQ is mostly checking river and anything worse is pure checking

Kd Qs 3s 2h Ts small overbet flop, small overbet turn

Top 2p is always checkign without a spade and anything worse is always checking

As Qs 6d Th 5s small overbet flop, 2/3 turn

sets are starting to check back sometimes OTR, with AA checkign EV being significantly higher than betting, because we block enough worse calls
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Old 04-07-2021, 10:59 PM   #29
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Re: Value bet on a diet

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I think this is a dilemma when playing on a softer site like Ignition. You run into so many players that will call super light on the river. It can become tempting to go for these thin value bets.
I hear this but on the next thread I read about how much pool overfolds
I'm completely fine with this approach of value betting thin vs stations but you need to have evidence towarsd them being stations and there's also a limit to how thin you can go, plus you can always use smaller sizings
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Old 04-07-2021, 11:12 PM   #30
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Re: Value bet on a diet

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I'm taking a look at regular spots right now, I don't know if they will seem surprising to you or not

Qs 9d 2s 3h 3s small bet flop, overbet turn

AQ is mostly checking river and anything worse is pure checking

Kd Qs 3s 2h Ts small overbet flop, small overbet turn

Top 2p is always checkign without a spade and anything worse is always checking

As Qs 6d Th 5s small overbet flop, 2/3 turn

sets are starting to check back sometimes OTR, with AA checkign EV being significantly higher than betting, because we block enough worse calls
Oh okay - yeah whenever a flush completes whether its front door or back door I figured we need to do a ton of checking OTR. Especially when we start constricting their turn range with huge sizing's.

Any non flush scenario's that are surprising? I've studied OB's a decent amount but definitely not an expert.
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Old 04-07-2021, 11:24 PM   #31
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Re: Value bet on a diet

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Oh okay - yeah whenever a flush completes whether its front door or back door I figured we need to do a ton of checking OTR. Especially when we start constricting their turn range with huge sizing's.

Any non flush scenario's that are surprising? I've studied OB's a decent amount but definitely not an expert.
As 9d 3s, 33% flop | 6h, 133% turn | Qh, mostly a brick out runout.
AK is pure checking back river
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Old 04-07-2021, 11:49 PM   #32
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Re: Value bet on a diet

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As 9d 3s, 33% flop | 6h, 133% turn | Qh, mostly a brick out runout.
AK is pure checking back river
Nice example:

BTNvsBB I'm assuming?

I would 100% jam AK there. Does it X back any broadway river or just the Q specifically?
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Old 04-08-2021, 05:14 AM   #33
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Re: Value bet on a diet

Quote:
Originally Posted by aner0 View Post
I'm taking a look at regular spots right now, I don't know if they will seem surprising to you or not

Qs 9d 2s 3h 3s small bet flop, overbet turn

AQ is mostly checking river and anything worse is pure checking

Kd Qs 3s 2h Ts small overbet flop, small overbet turn

Top 2p is always checkign without a spade and anything worse is always checking

As Qs 6d Th 5s small overbet flop, 2/3 turn

sets are starting to check back sometimes OTR, with AA checkign EV being significantly higher than betting, because we block enough worse calls
Does solver include villains that cannot punish us for not protecting our river checking range oop or villains that always raise nuts on flop or turn? I dont think so...
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Old 04-08-2021, 05:47 AM   #34
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Re: Value bet on a diet

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Thanks for the solve.

Yeah so looking at this solve. SB has no pure cbets OTF. Everything is mixed.

The way I approach that is when I bet small - I want to bet range. But if everything is mixed - Id rather just use bigger sizing and mostly X.

It's much easier to keep track of ranges this way instead of using some small sizing 50% frequency strategy. I'd rather use a large sizing ~20% strategy and the EV is similar.
actually you can prob bet small close to range here where you're just giving up with complete junk and pure betting anything worth it
doubt ip is raising the 20% the solver is
but you have to drill the line a little bit, otherwise you'll tend to be way too aggressive on turns (cause you get there with ~450 combos) and subsequently rivers
at least you don't have to worry about your flop x range anymore and it's anon anyway
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Old 04-08-2021, 06:31 AM   #35
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Re: Value bet on a diet

I rather just x/c river if you wanna play it like this.

I don't think flop/turn is inherently bad, but river is a bit too thin for me and you have a great combo to x/c and people won't value bet A9 for example and might bluff quite a lot of combos (55/54/XXss/etc)
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Old 04-08-2021, 07:22 AM   #36
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Re: Value bet on a diet

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Does solver include villains that cannot punish us for not protecting our river checking range oop or villains that always raise nuts on flop or turn? I dont think so...
Ah yeah I'm famous for always saying do what solver does, that's me

In solver land this hand is losing 11bb every time you take this line on average. If you have data that supports the idea that your exploit can overcome those 1100bb/100, then by all means, take the line and print.
If you don't, then please take the line, but against me

Last edited by aner0; 04-08-2021 at 07:36 AM.
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Old 04-08-2021, 12:17 PM   #37
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Re: Value bet on a diet

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huh? I'm gonna call BS on that statement.

What do you do with ATo here vs this sizing? What about 2x/3x?

It's not that intuitive.
Mostly just fold bc sizing makes continuing -ev. That's a no-solver guess.
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Old 04-08-2021, 12:44 PM   #38
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Re: Value bet on a diet

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Originally Posted by aner0 View Post
I'm taking a look at regular spots right now, I don't know if they will seem surprising to you or not

Qs 9d 2s 3h 3s small bet flop, overbet turn

AQ is mostly checking river and anything worse is pure checking

Kd Qs 3s 2h Ts small overbet flop, small overbet turn

Top 2p is always checkign without a spade and anything worse is always checking

As Qs 6d Th 5s small overbet flop, 2/3 turn

sets are starting to check back sometimes OTR, with AA checkign EV being significantly higher than betting, because we block enough worse calls
To make sure I am reading this right, the first flop is a small bet and the others are overbets?
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Old 04-08-2021, 01:56 PM   #39
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Re: Value bet on a diet

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Originally Posted by aner0 View Post
If you don't, then please take the line, but against me
lmaoooooo
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Old 04-08-2021, 05:05 PM   #40
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Re: Value bet on a diet

Thanks aner0 and ionu for the education. I'll start cbetting these boards smaller in the future
Results

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
UTG ($34.50)
HJ ($54.89)
CO ($25.77)
BTN ($29.71)
HERO ($26.76)
BB ($29.88)

Dealt to Hero: 9 K

UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To $0.75, BB Calls $0.50

Hero SPR on Flop: [17.34 effective]
Flop ($1.50): 2 9 3
HERO Bets $1.68 (Rem. Stack: $24.33), BB Calls $1.68 (Rem. Stack: $27.45)

Turn ($4.86): 2 9 3 4
HERO Bets $4.87 (Rem. Stack: $19.46), BB Calls $4.87 (Rem. Stack: $22.58)

River ($14.60): 2 9 3 4 2
HERO Bets $19.46 (allin), BB Calls $19.46 (Rem. Stack: $3.12)

Spoiler:
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Old 04-08-2021, 06:02 PM   #41
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Re: Value bet on a diet

welp if the average guy in the pool is going to call down with 66 then by all means take them to value town
I imagine 66 is a fold even vs small flop and 2 half pot ish bets on turn and river cause in that node you're not afraid to bet river thin for value with K9, mby Q9. or mby he jams 66 sometimes.
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Old 04-09-2021, 08:40 AM   #42
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Re: Value bet on a diet

As villain check jamming or maybe only cr turn with 55 is interesting, what you guys think?
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Old 04-09-2021, 02:10 PM   #43
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Re: Value bet on a diet

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welp if the average guy in the pool is going to call down with 66 then by all means take them to value town
I imagine 66 is a fold even vs small flop and 2 half pot ish bets on turn and river cause in that node you're not afraid to bet river thin for value with K9, mby Q9. or mby he jams 66 sometimes.
They do. Had someone call down my AA full, with 76o no pair by river.
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