I've turned my hand into a bluff, if I get called I'll be surprised if I'm ahead. I've only got 8 hands on UTG so the stats are pretty meaningless.

I had seen this guy squeeze before (17% over 23 possible according to HEM) and with 8.8% 3-bet in these games he is definitely 3-betting light a good chunk of the time.

TBH I don't think I had a plan on the flop, but by the turn shoving seemed a lot better then chk turn and c/f the river.

So you're trying to make him fold an overpair in a 3bet pot after commiting half his stack?

+1

Naah just shove the turn

+1 to c/c c/s

What do we do if we c/c flop, villain checks back turn(blank) and another blank comes on river.

We c/f he river ofc. But we tank 10s before checking.

I was talking about the river, we didnt shove the turn...

I just have no idea why we want to shove flop if we think his range is purely value. I really think we have no fold equity against his value range.

Hardly anyone bluffs in this spot, I don't even mind c/c flop and c/f turn. I'm pretty sure we are getting paid by his value range when we hit on the turn so we have great implied odds. Even if he is super nitty and checks back diamond turns with overpairs, we will get a valuebet on the river and get paid enough to make our c/c correct.

Also, if he has QQ/KK and we spike an A or K, he will check back turn and we get a valuebet on the river.

I just can't see c/shoving this flop being our best option unless we think this guy will really fold an overpair.

This is pretty much what I was trying to get at in the beginning of that discussion. Just worded 100x better.

But shoving the flop is slightly +ev regardless because of the dead money from UTG+1 and the tiny amount of FE.

Yeah I agree about not shoving flop, but I really can't understand c/s turn as if we have any FE. Villains hand is most likely a high pp or AK himself, even though I dont think villain is barrelling turn + river(w air or AK) which is why I think c/s turn is bad. I'd rather just c/f depending on size.

yeah but dylan we just wanna shovel money in the pot, cross our fingers and hope we win flips

then when we don't we can complain in bbv
when we do we can post balla graphs

if i c/c flop on spraggys hand i dont think im c/shoving unless i bink

if villain is bluffing turns, we could do other than c/f

which is why id just jam flop

@swift

yeh after I +1 to c/c c/s, I changed my mind in my second post. c/c c/f definitely seems better

oh >< this completely slipped my mind

by all means, shovel away!

LDO

Just because we have to c/f turns shouldn't necessarily be a reason to prefer jamming flop.

Jamming flop is going to be close to a breakeven play, c/c and c/shoving when we hit and c/f when we miss will be a clear +EV play imo.

ofc c/c c/s is bad if he is never bluffing turn or is nnot folding an overpair that he bets for value OTT.

But we don't know that. They are a bit deeper so it is certainly possible he folds an overpair OTT to a c/s (And I really doubt he would fold QQ for example OTF). Also he can also be bluffing. And we don't need him to fold very often OTT for making c/s profitable compared to c/f.

But quite often turn will be checked trough because he will often give up with air and will pot control an overpair.

This std against a 55/9 fish with 80 donkbet over 40 hands?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Entraction
SB ($10.51)
BB ($20.30)
UTG ($20)
UTG+1 ($25.72)
CO ($13.79)
Hero ($26.94)

Dealt to Hero T Q

fold, fold, CO calls $0.20, Hero raises to $0.90, fold, fold, CO calls $0.70

FLOP ($2.10) T 4 3

CO bets $2.10, Hero calls $2.10

TURN ($6.30) T 4 3 5

CO bets $6.30, Hero raises to $12.60, CO calls $4.49 (AI)

RIVER ($27.88) T 4 3 5 5

CO shows 2 A
(Pre 55%, Flop 27.8%, Turn 100.0%)

Hero shows T Q
(Pre 45%, Flop 72.2%, Turn 0.0%)

CO wins $26.49

^ 3bet pre is way too thin for value because the fish is flatting a lot, but as played, very std against fish


i've never seen villain before, but he was 4tabling and played like a reg or at least thinking player.

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

SB: $81.55
BB: $26.75
UTG: $23.50
MP: $69.75
Hero (CO): $54.40
BTN: $79.85

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with K A
1 fold, MP raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($3.75) 9 T K (2 players)
MP bets $3, Hero calls $3

Turn: ($9.75) A (2 players)
MP requests TIME, MP bets $8, Hero requests TIME, Hero calls $8

River: ($25.75) 9 (2 players)
MP bets $22, Hero requests TIME, Hero folds

3bet?

my bad, never played 20nl.

yes, well played, although i'd just call turn call river to keep bluffs in

River donk ok or is it just beter to c/r turn?
Villain 55/8 and donks about 17% of flops in about 50 hands

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Party
Hero ($34.96)
BB ($36.49)
UTG ($25)
UTG+1 ($9.10)
CO ($29.78)
BTN ($36.23)

Dealt to Hero 3 3

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $1, Hero calls $0.90, BB calls $0.75

FLOP ($3) 3 T 3

Hero checks, BB bets $1.42, BTN folds, Hero calls $1.42

TURN ($5.84) 3 T 3 K

Hero checks, BB bets $2.77, Hero calls $2.77

RIVER ($11.38) 3 T 3 K Q

Hero bets $5.41

id prob go for the c/r, we get a bet out of most of the stuff that is calling our donk and some of those hands are calling a raise

i raise this flop vs this villain

The thing was that I assumed we did have FE, because I also assumed that villain does have a bluffing range, you see? But then everyone said he only does this for value so yeah... If he has no bluffing range, you can play your equity on flop by getting it in and having a close-to-0ev spot, or you can take dint's line.

Auts' hand: Think about why you're calling turn if you're going to donk river. The reason we call turn is to let him carry on valuebetting worse or to keep on bluffing. Calling turn, donking river is counterintuitive. I'm leaning towards c/r turn cause we build a pot faster and he seems like he's checking river back a lot given turn sizing.