Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (6 players) - Party-Poker

UTG ($2.09)VPIP 24 PFR 6.9 3bet Pre:0 Hands: 31
MP ($1.25)
CO ($2.48)
Hero (Button) ($2.07)
SB ($2.20)
BB ($3.79)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, A
UTG raises $0.06, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.06, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.15) Q, 3, A (2 players)
UTG bets $0.07, Hero calls $0.07

Turn: ($0.29) 8 (2 players)
UTG bets $0.16, Hero calls $0.16

River: ($0.61) A (2 players)
UTG bets $0.40, Hero ??



Against many opponents this would be a 3bet pre to me, call seemed fine though as well considering his tight UTG range, might even fold sometimes here. Flop is a mandatory call pretty obviously (maybe even raise? What do you think), turn is where it gets close. Went with a call here though because after all 31 hands isn't a reliable sample size, so there might some weaker suited Aces with which he would want to make me fold my flush draws. River I'm very uncomfortable with. His bet sizing didn't seem that value heavy, most players would go for a bigger sizing, however I'm finding it hard to imagine a scenario where we're not beat. Any opinions?

turn is not even close, just call. River kind of sucks since most people on this limits will not find enough bluffs here, he can have JT, KJ, some small FD, might have KTs, and for value he has A3, AQ,AK, 33, QQ AA, some A8, just feels like he will not bluff enough

Call-call-flip a coin. It's basically a breakeven spot, and unless you have AQ in your range (and have decided to slowplay all the way), it's the best hand you have in this spot, and folding would mean you're folding 100% of your range.
If villain turns out to be playing 24/7 in the long run, you shouldn't be good here (unless he's passive pre, but bluffy post, which is rare), but I don't trust a HUD based on 31 hands. He might think ATs is winning here.

I suppose if you want to take card removal effects into account, you should fold this combo that blocks bluffs with spades (like KJss, JTss), and call with AJcc/dd instead, but I just call with all my AJs and move on to the next hand after taking a note on villain's actual hand and his sizings.

You just have to pay him off, beat plenty of his value range.

Don't expect 2NL villains to take pot control lines with worse Ax when "zomg flush draw!1", or to have the discipline to fold enough worse Ax pre.

Like arty said i could make a case for folding holding the Js but still call in game about 99.998% of the time..

Thanks for the responses. I should probably add that I was playing with him at another table as well, where his stats looked pretty similar (wide gap between VPIP and PFR) which made this hand even more uncomfortable in the situation. Given his weak stats, he didn't seem like the kind of player who would pull off a bluff frequently after essentially playing fit or fold pre flop.

Grunch.

Against UTG raising range I think a call is fine unless you have a read he's out of line. Maybe more likely to 3bet AJo if he's weak.

Flop call. Raising gets him off of bluffs and lower PP. His calling range is hands that beat us and weaker flush draws. Which is really only TJs or worse.

Turn call. For same reasons above.

River call. Would probably bet bigger with boat. Still beat bluffs and maybe a couple weaker Ax.

Get shown AK and lose.

Well the fact that most of NL2 players don't bluff on spots like that, why should we care about removal. Even on stakes like NL25 where removal is a crucial concept , on this spot , UTG having AK AQ QQ is only a few combos.

Snap call. Pay the man his money if need be.

But if villain is bluffing, isn't he slightly more likely to have a spade in his hand, if we have none? Removal effects and blockers are probably given too much significance on the forums (they are often used as justification for what are basically just spews), but they still have an effect, however small, whether it's 2NL or 2000NL, and I think it's worth considering them when making "breakeven" bluffs or bluffcatches.

Thank ****** :d